2014 Tour of California May 11-18

[Guybrush]

I thought this year's ToC was pretty lackluster save a few exciting parts like Taylor Phinney's attack, the peleton splitting in stage 1 and maybe a few other moments

for example

 

[wayahead]

Man in 2012 Sagan was faster than Degenkolb in a sprint, and now he's not even close

Degenkolb improved a lot against everybody, not only against Sagan. Sagan beat him head-to-head even at TdF 2013. Now without chance. Impressive.

I think it is pretty clear that Sagan peaked at age 23. Downhill from now on.

Based on his spring and TOC performance? Sorry but it's more weird than Sagan playing piano.

His endurance and climbing ability seems to be improved this year, but he lost his flat sprint.

Not significantly, just his sprint after long races is in question. Did you see "his" stage at TOC? Of course in 2012 he grabbed 5 wins against poor Haussler, but he was never on Cav level, he beat him only once. The same for him against Greipel and Kittel. In 2012 he was the best of the Tier2 sprinters, now it's Degenkolb. And I guess his sprinting this year just mirrors his form in general.

But without the sprint to win these classics, how will he err... win? There are people who can climb better than him in them. There are people who can sprint better than him in them at the end of these races (e.g. Cancellara, Kristoff, and Degenkolb too it seems). He's marked so in the biggest races when the biggest names want to win, he won't just be allowed to roll off the front like he did in Canada, in Gent-Wevelgem and even in E3 this year where he and a select group of rouleurs with no sprint got away.

He's lucky to have several possible answers. But he has to develop one of them to perfection. Sprint after long distance the main candidate.

He will easily beat Canc in a two-man sprint, and in Ronde and Sanremo, he should be sprinting for the win in a group ahead of both Degenkolb and Kristoff.

Hmm, his sprint after 250+ km is not so good. He won such a sprint only once (MSR 2012).

Yet Cancellara beat him in the Sanremo placings (2013) and dropped him in 2012 and 2014 at Flanders. He then outsprinted him at P-R this year - or was Super Sagan too much of an ego to contest?

At P-R he was obviously cooked after his solo. And I think you mean MSR 2014 and RvV 2013 and 2014. Essentially you're talking about this spring.

As to Sagan and TOC. I didnt expect him to win sprints against Cav. He was great in hills. He delivered against Tier2 sprinters, he still has his kick. With stronger doms he would be even better. Very similar performance to TOC 2013. As Kittel and Cav will be eating each other, Sagan has very good chance to make it three in July.

 

[Netserk]

In general yes Sagan should beat Canc in a two man sprint (although Fabian did sprint better in this years Sanremo - give any reason why, he did), but Degenkolb? Not necessarily. Dengenkolb (and Fabian for that matter) beat sagan in PR. He also beat him in at GW this year. My point is Degenkolb has proven himself to be extremely tough competition for Sagan.

I know, which is why Sagan should sprint in the group ahead of Degenkolb's (and Kristoff's) group.

 

[alspacka]

As Kittel and Cav will be eating each other, Sagan has very good chance to make it three in July.

To be fair Kittel's legs look like they'd be quite tasty.