2015 Ardennes: 79th La Fleche Wallonne - Mur de Huy - 205.5k

[rghysens]

Top 3 (in random order): Rodriguez - Valverde - Henao

 

[Fernandez]

Last years Valverde win was impressive. He was all the Mur at the front controlling everyone and then he destroyed them in the last 200 meters. He was by far the strongest rider in the Ardennes week and so looks this year. But you know, there is something with Valverde about not winning races. Anyway, amazing rider.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

Going to have a little each-way bet on Henao for this. He looked decent on the steep slopes at PV last week and may sneak a top 3 however he will have to drop Valverde and Purito.

Decent??? He has never been better ... If there's any of the Ardennes classics that suits him, it's FW, so I don't disagree. Still I cannot see Valverde losing this if he can keep the wheel of JRod.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Re: Re:

Cheeky bet on Froome if his racing legs turn up he'll be up there.

Up there where?

Tour contenders have done quite well at FW at times. Evans beat Contador in a sprint. The Schlecks weren't far off victory a couple times.

It would still be hilarious if Froome somehow won this, though. The forum would explode.

the most memorable thing he's done on a Mur de Huy style climb is still his Bologna-San Luca meltdown in 2009.

.

Cote de Jenkin Rd?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

My money on Kwiato. last year, he went a bit too early. he repeated the mistake thrice.
in AGR, he seemed to have learned from his mistake.

Dan Martin is a bigger fav though. He has been in good shape. He will remember his last year's near win.

Piti, more than JRod, would want to win here. but with piti, 2nd place is more like the norm ;-)

i know Sky gives orgasm to some like our ES commentators, but plz be realistic. Unless our discussion shud be in clinic, impossible for CF to win this. not his kind of finish.

I think Martin, Kwia, Piti, JRod, Gerrans

Why does everyone think that all Valverde does is podium? His stats since he came back from his suspension is 24 third places, 32 second places and 28 first places. So yeah, he has slightly more second places than first places, but really, he wins as often as he gets second or third.

 

[Netserk]

Yeah thanks to races like Ruta del Sol when he can scoop up a lot of easy wins. In the biggest races he is bridesmaid more often than bride.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Going to have a little each-way bet on Henao for this. He looked decent on the steep slopes at PV last week and may sneak a top 3 however he will have to drop Valverde and Purito.

He doesn't have to drop those two to sneak a top 3, although for the win he does

 

[Angliru]

Re:

Yeah thanks to races like Ruta del Sol when he can scoop up a lot of easy wins. In the biggest races he is bridesmaid more often than bride.

Who wins big races more often than they podium?? You and your lot annoy the hell out me with this Valverde races for 2nd places bs. It was tired last year and is even more so this year.

Okay. Rant over. I feel better now.

 

[hfer07]

Watch out for HENAO - he'll be up there with the best.

BTW I'm curious to see what PANTANO can do in this race

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Yeah thanks to races like Ruta del Sol when he can scoop up a lot of easy wins. In the biggest races he is bridesmaid more often than bride.

Yeah he only managed to beat Richie Porte in TT and in two MTF. Didn't seen anybody doing that this year.. Hardly an easy wins, if they look like that, that's because Valverde made them look like that. That's called class

 

[Bushman]

I like Henao here too. In PV Henao had a slight edge over Purito, I reckon Purito will have the edge here solely because of experience. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Henao on the top of the podium.

Dont know about Valverde. If he is there on the flatter part he will likely win, but I think Purito when on top form is better on such a climb than Valverde.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Yeah thanks to races like Ruta del Sol when he can scoop up a lot of easy wins. In the biggest races he is bridesmaid more often than bride.

Who wins big races more often than they podium?? You and your lot annoy the hell out me with this Valverde races for 2nd places bs. It was tired last year and is even more so this year.

Okay. Rant over. I feel better now.

I don't think he races for second places. I do think that in the most important races he will be remembered as an underachiever as compared to his huge talent. In Grand Tours, he has one win out of six podiums (and ten top fives). In the most important one day races, which for him means the three Ardennes races plus Lombardia and the Worlds and I suppose we should include MSR although he's never done much there, he has four wins out of nineteen podiums.

And two of those four wins are in Fleche, the simplest race of all of the important ones in tactical terms, ie the one where his talent counts for the most relative to his brain. If we leave Fleche out of consideration (and it is arguably the least prestigious of the nine listed, fighting it out with AGR) he has three wins in the most important races out of 21 podiums. It's not just people being haters, although he does get plenty of that. He really does combine an exceptional record of podiuming big races with a rather bad podium to win conversion rate.

Compare that rate to more tactically astute but less talented riders: Simon Gerrans has two wins out of five podiums in those seven races.

 

[greenedge]

JROD
Martin
Gilbert
Valverde
Henao with the top 2 the same and the next 3 in no particular order.
I'd love to see attacks on the new climb as well!

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Yeah thanks to races like Ruta del Sol when he can scoop up a lot of easy wins. In the biggest races he is bridesmaid more often than bride.

Who wins big races more often than they podium?? You and your lot annoy the hell out me with this Valverde races for 2nd places bs. It was tired last year and is even more so this year.

Okay. Rant over. I feel better now.

I don't think he races for second places. I do think that in the most important races he will be remembered as an underachiever as compared to his huge talent. In Grand Tours, he has one win out of six podiums (and ten top fives). In the most important one day races, which for him means the three Ardennes races plus Lombardia and the Worlds and I suppose we should include MSR although he's never done much there, he has four wins out of nineteen podiums.

And two of those four wins are in Fleche, the simplest race of all of the important ones in tactical terms, ie the one where his talent counts for the most relative to his brain. If we leave Fleche out of consideration (and it is arguably the least prestigious of the nine listed, fighting it out with AGR) he has three wins in the most important races out of 21 podiums. It's not just people being haters, although he does get plenty of that. He really does combine an exceptional record of podiuming big races with a rather bad podium to win conversion rate.

Compare that rate to more tactically astute but less talented riders: Simon Gerrans has two wins out of five podiums in those seven races.

I didnt fact check, but Valverde won F-W once and he won Liege twice if I'm not mistaken.

I agree with you though. He doesn't ride for 2nd place, but he is too content with 2nd place though.
He could've won more big races I think.

 

[happytramp]

F-W >>>>> AGR (in terms of prestige)

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

F-W >>>>> AGR (in terms of prestige)

since when?

EDIT: badly phrased ofc when AGR didn't even exist, FW was more prestigious. But in modern times, I don't see such a difference.

 

[Netserk]

Ever since FW has been a midweek 200km race it has been less prestigious than Amstel.

 

[b.broadhurst]

I think Sky mean business for FW.

Team: Chris Froome, Phil Deignan, Sergio Henao, Peter Kennaugh, Vasil Kiryienka, Lars Petter Nordhaug, Wout Poels and Nicolas Roche.

 

[SeriousSam]

They're going to ride clear off the field at the Muur

 

[happytramp]

Re:

They're going to ride clear off the field at the Muur

They're going to do an E.T and ride straight off the Muur and up into the sky with Chris Froome sitting in Henao's basket.

 

[Arredondo]

I don't know how good Purito actually is. In the Amstel, he defintely wasn't good. But i reckon that he was already happy about the fact he survived that race.

If he's on form, he's just better then Valverde on this kind of climb. But i think Henao and Valverde are slightly better in form atm. So a podium place would be a good result imo.

 

[Bushman]

Re:

I don't know how good Purito actually is. In the Amstel, he defintely wasn't good. But i reckon that he was already happy about the fact he survived that race.

If he's on form, he's just better then Valverde on this kind of climb. But i think Henao and Valverde are slightly better in form atm. So a podium place would be a good result imo.

He is never good in Amstel.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Re:

I like Henao here too. In PV Henao had a slight edge over Purito, I reckon Purito will have the edge here solely because of experience. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Henao on the top of the podium.

Dont know about Valverde. If he is there on the flatter part he will likely win, but I think Purito when on top form is better on such a climb than Valverde.

I like Henao's chances too, but only if he were on a different team. Sky is going to try and mountain train, which will work as well as it did in Flanders. I guess the squad is more climbing adept, but I don't think they will play those cards well; he will be left without helpers going into the Muur, and won't have a back up plan.

 

[SyroboiII]

It's going to be a boring snoozefest. Froome will win by at least 5 seconds maybe 10 without even trying. Didn't you guys see the first and second stage of the Tour 2014? It sucks that he is going to win these races he doesn't even care about, but it's the reality. Dan Martin and the rest of the riders who have trained hard for these races will be left empty-handed and disappointed.

 

[SyroboiII]

You guys honestly think that Froome is going to work for Henao? Bwahaha! The Barloworld days are over. This guy will forget about the meaning of being a loyal domestique when the race begins. Welcome to 2015.