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roundabout said:ok, so the guy won by going on a 2-man break in the last 30km of a monument despite being nominally the strongest sprinter, yet you would hope that he would have to do more next week
Well yes, he basically had to bridge across to Terpstra and then had basically won the race. We know he is insanely strong in the closing stages, so it was poor tactically of the other teams to let him get away.
The strongest sprinter didn't have to chase down any attacks in the last 25km, didn't have to hang on during the climbs and didn't even have to sprint properly. I would have expected the other teams and riders to try a bit harder to distance him at other points in the race.
If you let a rider like Kristoff enter the last 30km relatively fresh, then you won't drop him then - it was too late.
Mr.White said:
There is a difference between working in basically a two man time trial, going at threshold, than there is working going anaerobically to continually close gaps - like you'd expect the other teams try to make the best sprinter do.
DFA123 said:
What do you have against Kristoff? I thought he was a very worthy winner.
He is obviously one of the top 3-5 fastest guy in the peloton, and has been so for a couple of years.
What the rest of the peloton now also has to account for: He is also one of the strongest.
I have a feeling he could have lost Terpstra on the last climb and actually held on for a win, but he chose to play it safe. He showed in RVV last year (chasing Cancellara group) and on the TT in De Panne a few days back that his engine is really impressive
As someone said: Not a one-trick pony.
I think he could challenge for several more RVVs and maybe also PRs in the coming years.
I have to say that I really enjoyed the race. Allthough the winning break left with 30k to go it was never 100% sure they would make it.
Once again it also showed that waiting for the final 2 climbs is unlikely the best thing to do, unless you are really dominant. Also it once again showed that the current final 10k of the race are abysmal and need a change. On these roads it's impossible to attack. There are 2 viable alternatives for the last 10km on true flemish roads, 1 option actually has 1.5km of cobbles in it.
Both alternatives will end up on the same wide road, but then it's just 2 or 4km left on that road.
Once again it also showed that waiting for the final 2 climbs is unlikely the best thing to do, unless you are really dominant. Also it once again showed that the current final 10k of the race are abysmal and need a change. On these roads it's impossible to attack. There are 2 viable alternatives for the last 10km on true flemish roads, 1 option actually has 1.5km of cobbles in it.
Both alternatives will end up on the same wide road, but then it's just 2 or 4km left on that road.
Pulp said:
i don't have anything against Kristoff, I just think he was given an easy ride by the other teams. They all know how strong he is, but didn't do enough on the climbs to put him in difficulty.
He's a great rider on great form, but I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have won so comfortably with more aggresive riders like Cancellara and Boonen in the race.
roundabout said:ok, so the guy won by going on a 2-man break in the last 30km of a monument despite being nominally the strongest sprinter, yet you would hope that he would have to do more next week
He's gotta earn it, can't just sit in the bunch and wait and then sprint for the last 200 metres like his name was Marcel Kittel
Oh wait
DFA123 said:
I agree, a Cancellara in form is obviously always the favourite in the cobblestone classics. Unfortunately neither Cancellara or Boonen were fit. And today I`m not so sure there were any riders capable of dropping him. Had Fabian and Tom been healthy, of course, he might not have been the strongest rider on the day. But from what I saw, he was just that: The strongest. And that is what you want in these races.
I guess my point is, Kristoff has the attributes of a RVV and PR legend like Boonen. (Not that I think he`ll get as many wins, but the similarity is there) Yes, he is good in a sprint, but he is also incredibly strong. The fact that he wins doesn`t mean the other botched the strategy.
DFA123 said:
This is what we get every race - 'oh why didnt all the other riders collaborate to stop rider X winning'. It doesnt work like that
a pretty good race, kristoff owes terp a favour they worked pretty well together, GVA went too late when clearly stronger than anyone
Hitch, that cancellara/sagan example is completely irrelevant since sagan is way faster than canc besides didn't canc just dislike sagan and i don't remember how that race in 2013 exactly unfolded.
But even if you're right about that, it's completely irrelevant to my point.
I'm not discussing terpstra's reputation after the race, i'm discussion the way he might have won the race. And wheelsucking the last 10km was the only way he might have won. Still extremely slim but better than sprinting against the guy.
Besides a guy like terpstra doesn't give a *** how people would view him.
But even if you're right about that, it's completely irrelevant to my point.
I'm not discussing terpstra's reputation after the race, i'm discussion the way he might have won the race. And wheelsucking the last 10km was the only way he might have won. Still extremely slim but better than sprinting against the guy.
Besides a guy like terpstra doesn't give a *** how people would view him.
willbick said:
Funny how sometimes after 240k people are too tired to chase down attacks. "Why didn't the other guys all just ride faster" is pretty much the critique after 80% of the races...
If you think Terpstra could have won the race by wheelsucking in the last 10km, you better stick to the GT uphill sprint stuff...
Wheel-sucking for some riders, great tactics and smart riding for others.
Sagan got a lesson or 2 handed to him by Fab. He would have been better to have sucked wheels.
Why waste energy if you don't have to. That's being smart IMO not wheel sucking. Anyone who on this sight who has done at least a 70 mile ride knows you are still busting your as% wheel sucking or not.
Sagan got a lesson or 2 handed to him by Fab. He would have been better to have sucked wheels.
Why waste energy if you don't have to. That's being smart IMO not wheel sucking. Anyone who on this sight who has done at least a 70 mile ride knows you are still busting your as% wheel sucking or not.
Terpstra said on dutch tele that when they reached the top of the kruisberg with a group of around 25riders he really thought the pace was too slow and felt he could go much faster and that's why he attacked.
Mixed feelings about Kristoff in his wheel ofcourse, but he also knew that Kristoff would likely be a good compagnon to ride with. Gambled on dropping Kristoff on the Pater, but Kristoff rode such a high pace on the Pater that he couldn't even pass him.
Last 10km he took shorter /weaker turns at the front and the last 3km he sat on Kristoffs wheel. Since the last 10km was headwind he hoped Kristoff would tire, but in the sprint it was very obvious that Kristoff simply was the strongest rider today.
Also Boom had a flat in the final kms so that's why the tele showed him chasing back on again. Booms best performance in Flanders and he didn't seem to fade either. Should be really good for Roubaix I guess as he has shown in the past that he can rise the cobbles as one of the fastest, but usually faded quickly after those accelarations.
Mixed feelings about Kristoff in his wheel ofcourse, but he also knew that Kristoff would likely be a good compagnon to ride with. Gambled on dropping Kristoff on the Pater, but Kristoff rode such a high pace on the Pater that he couldn't even pass him.
Last 10km he took shorter /weaker turns at the front and the last 3km he sat on Kristoffs wheel. Since the last 10km was headwind he hoped Kristoff would tire, but in the sprint it was very obvious that Kristoff simply was the strongest rider today.
Also Boom had a flat in the final kms so that's why the tele showed him chasing back on again. Booms best performance in Flanders and he didn't seem to fade either. Should be really good for Roubaix I guess as he has shown in the past that he can rise the cobbles as one of the fastest, but usually faded quickly after those accelarations.
Re:
I'm not sure you understand how racing works. Terpstra had more of a chance in a larger group than he did 1v1 with Kristoff. Did you miss Paris Roubaix last year for an example of how that works? He had no chance of winning by working with Kristoff to stay away.Dazed and Confused said:
Re: Re:
PR is a much harder race, even last year.
A strong TT'er can often escape at the business end of PR.
There are always strong sprinters lurking in RVV.
GvA, Kristoff and Sagan are all better sprinters than Terpstra, at least on paper.
Only chance for Terpstra was to make sure the chasers stayed away (unless a team mate would make) and try and drop Kristoff somewhere along the way using tactics.
But you probably failed to notice Kristoff was the strongest rider in the race.
DFA123 said:
PR is a much harder race, even last year.
A strong TT'er can often escape at the business end of PR.
There are always strong sprinters lurking in RVV.
GvA, Kristoff and Sagan are all better sprinters than Terpstra, at least on paper.
Only chance for Terpstra was to make sure the chasers stayed away (unless a team mate would make) and try and drop Kristoff somewhere along the way using tactics.
But you probably failed to notice Kristoff was the strongest rider in the race.
And if that is the case he should simply suck wheels. The notion that you somehow have some sort of obligation to help an opponent win if that is not in your best interests is extremely odd.
Re: Re:
Completely agree that Terpstra was the weakest sprinter and Kristoff was very strong. But you say Terpstra should have tried to get away with tactics... that's impossible in a group of two! As soon as he tried to attack, Kristoff would close him down straight away. In a group of four, at least there is a chance of some hesitation as they all look at each other, which could have allowed Terpstra to get away.
Dazed and Confused said:
Completely agree that Terpstra was the weakest sprinter and Kristoff was very strong. But you say Terpstra should have tried to get away with tactics... that's impossible in a group of two! As soon as he tried to attack, Kristoff would close him down straight away. In a group of four, at least there is a chance of some hesitation as they all look at each other, which could have allowed Terpstra to get away.
Re: Re:
Don't agree with the concept of getting away in group of 4 works here. Race not hard enough, certainly not this time. It would have ended in a sprint of 4 with GvA or Kristoff winning.
In a hard edition, maybe.
Anyway, as always Terpstra ends up working 5-10% more than needed. Attacked very early on a climb, but was probably told by DS to stay cool. Later he was caught behind the first chase group and had to work hard to get back. This was before his serious attack which only Kristoff could respond to.
I think Terpstra is the biggest engine in the peloton and if he can shave off the 5% waste he will win more often.
DFA123 said:
Don't agree with the concept of getting away in group of 4 works here. Race not hard enough, certainly not this time. It would have ended in a sprint of 4 with GvA or Kristoff winning.
In a hard edition, maybe.
Anyway, as always Terpstra ends up working 5-10% more than needed. Attacked very early on a climb, but was probably told by DS to stay cool. Later he was caught behind the first chase group and had to work hard to get back. This was before his serious attack which only Kristoff could respond to.
I think Terpstra is the biggest engine in the peloton and if he can shave off the 5% waste he will win more often.
Armchair cyclist
Moderator
Terpstra rode to win from 28k to go until the top of the Paterberg. He is likely to have believed from the Kruisberg to Oude Kwaremont, as did commentators and those commenting live here, that if he could drop Kristoff on either of those last two hills, and that seemed a distinct possibility, that he would have had the power to hold on to win. That was his best (only) chance of winning.
So once he reached the top of Paterberg and Kristoff was not disposed of, he had very little chance. In that situation, he could only ride on for the best result he or the team could get. With Stybar distanced by Van Avermaet and Sagan, his best result was the team's best result. And frankly, Terpstra had more chance of taking advantage of a Kristoff mechanical/meltdown than he had of getting a win from a four man sprint involving those that would have been around him.
5% chance of winning, and 90% of being second is better than 3 % chance of 1st, 7% chance of 2nd and 25% chance of 3rd. If Etixx expected more, they needed something different from someone else.
So once he reached the top of Paterberg and Kristoff was not disposed of, he had very little chance. In that situation, he could only ride on for the best result he or the team could get. With Stybar distanced by Van Avermaet and Sagan, his best result was the team's best result. And frankly, Terpstra had more chance of taking advantage of a Kristoff mechanical/meltdown than he had of getting a win from a four man sprint involving those that would have been around him.
5% chance of winning, and 90% of being second is better than 3 % chance of 1st, 7% chance of 2nd and 25% chance of 3rd. If Etixx expected more, they needed something different from someone else.
Re:
Not to burst your bubble dude but I think most people worked out that riding in someone elses draft is easier than riding on the front, when they were still riding with suspenders.
Did you think you were the first person to think of it?
Smart?ray j willings said:
Not to burst your bubble dude but I think most people worked out that riding in someone elses draft is easier than riding on the front, when they were still riding with suspenders.
Did you think you were the first person to think of it?
Nothing wrong with Terpstra's tactics. He thought he could drop Kristoff on the Paterberg but K was just way too strong. Second place is a very good result, u cant win them all
Re: Re:
If he attacks Kristoff in a group of two Kristoff is not gonna look to other riders to close the gap, he'll be on the wheel immediately, in a group of 4 the 3 others are way more likely to hesitate in closing the gap.[/quote]
That is not going to work when you just announced to everyone what your tactic is going to be by refusing to work with Kristoff.
Besides he didn't have the strenth to hold them off for 3k even if he managed to drop them and they hesitate.
And with the peloton only 10 seconds back the 3 sprinters weren't exactly going to tow him to the 3k mark.
How was he better off in a 4 man group. He was the weakest of the 4 and refuses to help them. When is he going to drop them and how?[/quote]Red Rick said:The Hitch said:Red Rick said:Miburo said:
Well then maybe I am a genius.
But
Neither of you has actually addressed the point that resorting to such disgraceful behaviour would do long term damage to Terpstra's ability to win in breakaways from ANY race in the future.
Imagine next week or next year in PR he finds himself in a group with 2 riders with 20k to go, who he has a good chance to drop on the remaining cobbles sectors, but both, having seen what he did in RVV refuse to work with him, because they realize that they have no chance to win being in a group with him, as he will abandon them if he isn't able to drop them. They don't work, and all 3 riders lose their chance to win the race (since neither are the strongest)
Who would feel like a genius then?
You may say - oh well its worth it if he won RVV, but then his chances of winning RVV were still extremely low. Best best case scenario, he still would have had to somehow drop, 3 riders that were stronger than him. I can't actually work out how he would have won unless what you have in mind is all 3 of them taking eachother in a crash out in which case he STILL has to keep up a 10 second gap to the peloton.
Its not like Sagan GVA and Kristoff will ignore him for the next 5km and voluntarily tow him to the last 3k, where he drops them all, solos to the line, gets a kiss from the queen, cures cancer and lives happily ever after. Please
Even if you are operating from a pure game theory P.O.V and choose to ignore all morality (which both of you quite clearly seem to be doing), then you have to ask yourself what % chance would he actually have gained by betraying Kristoff like that, and what % chance would he have lost to win any race in the future from everyone else identifying him as a snake.
Its not worth it. The Hail mary pray that Kristoff might tow him to the line and let him win is not worth sacrificing your chances at every race in the future.
Each situation is different, Terpstra had 0 chance to win in a 2 man group, so if he wanted to win he was better off in a 4man group for which he would've had to stop pulling at all. Nothing disgraceful about that in any way. It doesn't matter it's not the way the 'breakaway system' was built, you either try to win or you don't. Not cooperating should have no impact on how others ride with him in a group in PR.
If he attacks Kristoff in a group of two Kristoff is not gonna look to other riders to close the gap, he'll be on the wheel immediately, in a group of 4 the 3 others are way more likely to hesitate in closing the gap.[/quote]
That is not going to work when you just announced to everyone what your tactic is going to be by refusing to work with Kristoff.
Besides he didn't have the strenth to hold them off for 3k even if he managed to drop them and they hesitate.
And with the peloton only 10 seconds back the 3 sprinters weren't exactly going to tow him to the 3k mark.
Pulp said:
Despite being one of the main cheer leaders of Canc in the Canc vs Boonen wars on here, I have to say I think the Canc era is over. I didn't expect him to win this year, even before his crash. The last two monuments he won were by the skin of his teeth. He isn't as dominant as he was in 2010 and 2011. Last year PR he never looked like winning.
Its what one expects after 10 years at the top. In the recent history of this sport no riders have lasted much longer than that.
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