2015, Ronde van Vlaanderen 264.9 Km

[Echoes]

That said, great, though not surprising, to see Oliveira doing well. I just wish he had more (doesn't have any) free roles.

Is he scheduled to race next week? Thought about you when I saw him, lol.

Still digesting too. Especially for Sep ... But quite frankly Terpstra did what he had to do. Tried on the climbs but it seemed as though on the Pater Kristoff was more likely to drop him than reverse and on the flat, he suddenly decided to stop taking the turn or with less determination than before, so you could see he was up to something but on these long straight roads, it's hard to find a place to surprise your opponent, I think. On the road to Meerbeke, you had some uphill false flats, you had turns, there were opportunities. On that route, I've seen challengers doing it much less gutsy than Terpstra did (Hoste vs Boonen, for example). This route is really not hard enough.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

He has more chance to win in a 4 man group than alone with kristoff. You're dumb to deny that.

If he wants to win, then the only way was to no ride at all.

Or kristoff keeps pulling and maybe he can try something in the last few km (better than what it was right now)

or they're with 4 and kristoff prob can't react to everything.

That was the optimal strategy for him to win the race.

There's a risk he won't get podium but that's worth the risk for winning the race.

This. Can't believe I see Hitch advocating riding for 2nd place. In a group of 4 he might have won

Terpstra is racing with one of the fastest guys in this peloton. Anyone considering him a coward for not riding with him is a ***.

Well then maybe I am a ***.
But

Neither of you has actually addressed the point that resorting to such disgraceful behaviour would do long term damage to Terpstra's ability to win in breakaways from ANY race in the future.

Imagine next week or next year in PR he finds himself in a group with 2 riders with 20k to go, who he has a good chance to drop on the remaining cobbles sectors, but both, having seen what he did in RVV refuse to work with him, because they realize that they have no chance to win being in a group with him, as he will abandon them if he isn't able to drop them. They don't work, and all 3 riders lose their chance to win the race (since neither are the strongest)
Who would feel like a *** then?

You may say - oh well its worth it if he won RVV, but then his chances of winning RVV were still extremely low. Best best case scenario, he still would have had to somehow drop, 3 riders that were stronger than him. I can't actually work out how he would have won unless what you have in mind is all 3 of them taking eachother in a crash out in which case he STILL has to keep up a 10 second gap to the peloton.

Its not like Sagan GVA and Kristoff will ignore him for the next 5km and voluntarily tow him to the last 3k, where he drops them all, solos to the line, gets a kiss from the queen, cures cancer and lives happily ever after. Please

Even if you are operating from a pure game theory P.O.V and choose to ignore all morality (which both of you quite clearly seem to be doing), then you have to ask yourself what % chance would he actually have gained by betraying Kristoff like that, and what % chance would he have lost to win any race in the future from everyone else identifying him as a snake.

Its not worth it. The Hail mary pray that Kristoff might tow him to the line and let him win is not worth sacrificing your chances at every race in the future.

Each situation is different, Terpstra had 0 chance to win in a 2 man group, so if he wanted to win he was better off in a 4man group for which he would've had to stop pulling at all. Nothing disgraceful about that in any way. It doesn't matter it's not the way the 'breakaway system' was built, you either try to win or you don't. Not cooperating should have no impact on how others ride with him in a group in PR.

How was he better off in a 4 man group. He was the weakest of the 4 and refuses to help them. When is he going to drop them and how?[/quote]

If he attacks Kristoff in a group of two Kristoff is not gonna look to other riders to close the gap, he'll be on the wheel immediately, in a group of 4 the 3 others are way more likely to hesitate in closing the gap.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

MSR 2013. Sagan has reputation as a bit of a wheelsucker in groups. Canc refuses to work with Sagan.
Neither Sagan nor Cancellara win.

I'd say this was because of Sagan's arrogance in the Tour of 2012. Canc didn't forget that.

How was he better off in a 4 man group. He was the weakest of the 4 and refuses to help them. When is he going to drop them and how?

You mean he was the weakest in a sprint, right? Because he was definitely stronger than Sagan overall.

But I agree with pretty much everything you wrote here. Maybe his chances would have increased by 0.0001% if he just wheelsucked all the way and let GVA-Sagan come back, but that doesn't outweigh that he would have looked like a complete tool if he finished outside the podium (which wasn't unlikely with 3 superior sprinters) and the point you make about future races. Riders don't forget that kind of stuff.

Besides, Kristoff would have countered every attack from Terpstra with ease, because he's a lot more explosive (and was stronger too obviously), similar to what Boonen did against Pozzato in 2012.

 

[trevim]

Re: Re:

But Terpstra is still riding for Etixx Quickstep last time I checked, he's not riding for himself, therefore he should do what their is best for the team and that was not gambling on that he could beat Kristoff

Where was Trentin when he needed him?

He crashed with Ladagnous somewhere on the start of the last Kwaremont I think.

 

[trevim]

Re: Re:

Give me an example in the past where someone was treated that way for refusing to ride with one of the fastest guys in the last few km?

MSR 2013. Sagan has reputation as a bit of a wheelsucker in groups. Canc refuses to work with Sagan.
Neither Sagan nor Cancellara win.

Nah that wasn't the issue. Cancellara simply doesn't like Sagan, it isn't such a straightforward situation as you put it.

 

[mrhender]

Kristoff's dominance will hopefully open up Robaix earlier on as they must finally have realised they cannot afford to take him home..

 

[crapna]

Re:

Kristoff's dominance will hopefully open up Robaix earlier on as they must finally have realised they cannot afford to take him home..

Guess it'll be the other way round. Kristoff will have a go from 60k's left. No matter what the rest have realized.

 

[Tarnum]

Does anyone have any info on what happened with Boom? He seemed to have a mechanical right at the end and then somehow finished ahead of the group.

 

[glassmoon]

Re:

Kristoff's dominance will hopefully open up Robaix earlier on as they must finally have realised they cannot afford to take him home..

Don't ever underestimate the stupidity of pro peloton.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Kristoff's dominance will hopefully open up Robaix earlier on as they must finally have realised they cannot afford to take him home..

Yep, I can't see how anyone is really going to drop him in the last 30km - he looks so strong at the moment and has so much power left at the end of tough races.

I can't see how they will get rid of him though. Etixx perhaps have the manpower but don't have the team-work, and everyone is so scared of Thomas and Sky that they expect them to close down everything. Kristoff also has the best domestique who will absolutely bury himself to get him in contention. I can only see Degenkolb challenging him.

 

[mrhender]

Re: Re:

Kristoff's dominance will hopefully open up Robaix earlier on as they must finally have realised they cannot afford to take him home..

Don't ever underestimate the stupidity of pro peloton.

I know... When I saw Terpstra/Kristoff go the first thing i thought was "don't give them 30 sec" because then it's over...

 

[Flamin]

Terpstra made one mistake and that was after the Taaienberg where he was close to the front when Van Avermaet instigated an attack, followed by Stybar among others. Thomas, Sagan, Kristoff,.. all saw the danger and quickly made a small effort to bridge across, but for some weird reason Niki didn't, until he was only left in a group with guys like De Vreese and Marcato eventually he had to close a 80m gap by himself. No clue what he was thinking there.

 

[trevim]

Re: Re:

Kristoff's dominance will hopefully open up Robaix earlier on as they must finally have realised they cannot afford to take him home..

Yep, I can't see how anyone is really going to drop him in the last 30km - he looks so strong at the moment and has so much power left at the end of tough races.

Van Summeren has won Roubaix.....

 

[ToreBear]

It was smart tactics by Kristoff to attack when he did, as well as good fortune there was someone he could ride with. His team including Paolini were in the second group with Vanmercke, so he would have been extremely vulnerable.

As for Terpstras tactics I don't see what he could do differently. Had he refused to pull his likely placing would be 4 or maybe 3 if he were lucky. And Kristoff could have just stopped riding and saved his energy for outsprinting Sagan and Van Avermaet. Which he should have no problem with. Though his chance of winning might be slightly reduced if there was some kind of accident or something.

I can imagine this thread if Terpstra refused to ride and ended up fourth.

As for Sky, their tactics make perfect sense. If you have a captain who has a tendency to crash when in the peloton, the best way to avoid that is keeping him in the front. For Wiggo though even that wasn't enough.
Still we don't know if they were riding like that all day. I just know they did when the TV went live.

 

[doperhopper]

Just wondering, what was Cance possibly saying to himself watching this?

 

[jens_attacks]

Re: Re:

Lol at people in this forum telling Terpstra to ride like a coward and not pull. I can't believe how reactionary and shortsighted some people are.

If he stopped riding with Kristoff he still wouldn't have won.

But the difference is he would lose his podium place no one will ever trust him in a breakaway again.

Any race he ever attacks in, every other rider working with him would identify him immediately as the guy who will sell them down the river with cowardly cheapo tactics if the breakaway gets a sniff at a win.

An extremely dumb thing for a rider who's best chance to win is from a mid race break, to do.

sums up my opinion on this too.
i have to say i hated terpstra even for not taking turns in the last 5 kms,shouting at my tv. now imagine what i would have done if he refused to work from beginning. i would have hated terpstra forever and ever.


kristov, the strongest rider. i'm super happy for him.
terpstra, the best result he could get. rode very smart
g thomas and stybar, definitely not a super good day.

overall, good race

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Kristoff's dominance will hopefully open up Robaix earlier on as they must finally have realised they cannot afford to take him home..

Yep, I can't see how anyone is really going to drop him in the last 30km - he looks so strong at the moment and has so much power left at the end of tough races.

Van Summeren has won Roubaix.....

Well yes, and he won it by being in a break which opened up the race relatively early, and then he broke away early from that break.

If a decent break doesn't get a gap - which I fear they won't with a strong Sky chasing everything down all day - I can't see anyone dropping Kristoff in the last 30km.

 

[jens_attacks]

oh shiit forgot about greipel. huge chapeau grande!

i would love to see greipel winning somehow roubaix. the guy is a monster, cobbles are nothing to him

 

[jmdirt]

Just wondering, what was Cance possibly saying to himself watching this?

I could have finished second today!

 

[trevim]

Re: Re:

Kristoff's dominance will hopefully open up Robaix earlier on as they must finally have realised they cannot afford to take him home..

Yep, I can't see how anyone is really going to drop him in the last 30km - he looks so strong at the moment and has so much power left at the end of tough races.

Van Summeren has won Roubaix.....

Well yes, and he won it by being in a break which opened up the race relatively early, and then he broke away early from that break.

If a decent break doesn't get a gap - which I fear they won't with a strong Sky chasing everything down all day - I can't see anyone dropping Kristoff in the last 30km.

After the Arenberg I doubt Sky will have more than 3 guys at the front. It's a different race, if the peloton goes all negative racing on Katusha I doubt they have the strength to keep everyone in check/Kristoff following all the moves.
It should be a fun race, I think Ettix will go old school putting attack after attack and guys in every move instead of the passive approach they had today.

 

[doperhopper]

Looking back at the crucial split/attack (28km to go) - it was Geraint at the front who let Terp/AK go and started to look around, although it's not just his fault, there were all the big guns around at the front and nobody cared to bring it back or jump across.

 

[DFA123]

Looking back at the crucial split/attack (28km to go) - it was Geraint at the front who let Terp/AK go and started to look around, although it's not just his fault, there were all the big guns around at the front and nobody cared to bring it back or jump across.

Let's hope so! It's about time we had a monument with some good action early on. I woudn't even mind if Kristoff wins, but would hope that he would have to work harder and do more than he did today!

 

[nepetalactone]

New signature thanks to the recent CN article...

From Alexander Kristoff:

I don’t have to attack today, but sometimes attack is the best form of defence

What a BOSS!

 

[roundabout]

ok, so the guy won by going on a 2-man break in the last 30km of a monument despite being nominally the strongest sprinter, yet you would hope that he would have to do more next week

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

Wasn't Trentin caught behind a crash?

Apparently so, as also pointed out by the asian. I wasn't aware of it.

Trentin was still looking for his Garmin when Kristoff crossed the finishline.