2015 tour de france stage 3, Antwerpen-Hoei 159.5km

[AICA ribonucleotide]

Most people don't seem to remember what happened in April. This was the only Fleche Wallone with the Cote de Cherave before the Mur finish. No one attacked up the Mur. There was a line of riders wide across the road and one by one they dropped back with Valderde the only one remaining. It was a much tougher finish than before.
Expect someone to go long 7km to go up the Cherave like Nibali attempted a few months back.
There will be crashes as the roads widen and narrow.

 

[SeriousSam]

For the GC riders, the greatest potential for time gains or losses tomorrow are crashes, rather than getting outuphilsprinted and losing like 15 seconds or something.

That said I'm really looking forward to seeing how they're going, and all I want is Valverde winning. Up the Mur de Huy is a race of truth.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Lots of interesting points.

I think its gonna be mayhem.

I am convinced all the GC guys gonna be fighting for the win alongside all the classics guys. Which means that every one of their respective teams is gonna be fighting to hit the start of 'THE WALL' first.

Looking at the run in into HUY the route is all over the place and pretty narrow streets

At least its a dry sunny day

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

what's your point in that sentence? Seriously.

In that stage he showed he has what it takes,even this year. It's the only thing we have to go on. You can't say "he doesn't seem to have the form to do well on such a finish" when on the only similar finish this year he got a great result. There is nothing to suggest he doesn't have the form to do well tomorrow. There is something to suggest he does have it. See the point now?

 

[sir fly]

What are the chances of a breakaway? Granted, the stage is pretty short - but a lot of riders are so far back that they pose no thread to the yellow jersey, and Trek shouldn't have too big of an interest to drag everyone to the finish and jeopardize Cancellara's lead. Movistar and Astana have to try and put pressure on Sky and Tinkoff though, and Katusha might pull for Rodriguez. Orica might also lend a hand, as well as LottoJumbo, Lampre and Cannondale... well, in the end I'd say the chances for a breakaway are pretty slim

The bonus seconds are breakaway's doom with the already created gaps.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

Valverde/ Purito FTW

Contador top 5

Nibali Froome top 10

Quintana top 15

I don't see Contador finishing ahead of Nibs and Froome on this one (Assuming they tackle Huy together ofc.). Froome is far more explosive and Nibs seems to have the form that Contador doesn't have yet.

Nibali have done FW many times but he never got a good result. Never in top 10 , it's quite simple : short and steep climbs don't suit him. This is a fact , a statistic of his career.
A similar analys we can do for Froome.

The only doubt is about Contador : how his lacking racing legs can afflict him?

Nibali came 8th in 2012 lol. He might not be favourite to actually take the stage but he's ridden well on the climb several times before and he's probably in as good (if not better) condition here as he ever has been for FW

----

Not sure I agree with people saying Sagan is an option here. To me it looks like he's carrying more muscle than he has been for a while. Feels like he might have packed on the power for the sprints and may have a tougher time than before on the harder uphill finishes.

I think people are saying Sagan might take the yellow, although I think the gap is just too large.

I don't think anyone is suggesting Sagan could win this. If by some miracle he can, he might want to try the Ardennes next year instead of failing once again over the cobbles.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

Nibali came 8th in 2012 lol. He might not be favourite to actually take the stage but he's ridden well on the climb several times before and he's probably in as good (if not better) condition here as he ever has been for FW

----

Not sure I agree with people saying Sagan is an option here. To me it looks like he's carrying more muscle than he has been for a while. Feels like he might have packed on the power for the sprints and may have a tougher time than before on the harder uphill finishes.

True, but 2012 was the only great classics season he's had in his career. Ever since, he's not been very punchy on small climbs. Anyway, the steepness of Huy may help him there. This is definitely not a climb for Quintana, while Contador's shape is questionable. Froome can do alright on these climbs, but they need to be a little longer for him to excel. His diesel-climbing won't like the sudden shift of rythm and accelerations at the bottom of the Mur.
As for the Maillot Jaune, Tom Dumoulin will be the favourite to take it. Huy is too steep for Fabian, even with the 2012 Seraing stage in mind.

 

[Matteo.]

Re: Re:

Valverde/ Purito FTW

Contador top 5

Nibali Froome top 10

Quintana top 15

I don't see Contador finishing ahead of Nibs and Froome on this one (Assuming they tackle Huy together ofc.). Froome is far more explosive and Nibs seems to have the form that Contador doesn't have yet.

Hmm? Froome far more explosive? Not at all, Contador is super explosive. If Contador doesn't beat Froome, it's because he is lacking racing rhythm.

Froome usually excels in short steep climbs (Pena Cabarga, PDBF, Allandas, Monte Castrove, Camperona).
Contador beat Froome fair and square in Covadonga and Farrapona but prior to those days he got distanced in Camperona. And Camperona resembles Huy much more than the previously mentioned two climbs. Huy is shorter ofc and Contador in top form also excels in those types of finishes (Mende, Bretagne). But right now he doesn't seem to have the form of Bretagne 2011 (different build up approach this year most probably)

It' a kind of joke?!
La Planche? Camperona? Pena? Castrove?
What are you talking about?! You compare those medium climbs to Huy ,a real wall , one of the steepest and shortest climb of the professional cycling circus?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

Was trying to prove that Froome does have some punch. Think he'll do fine on the Mur as well and be in the Top 10 (if the opportunity for the stage is there he'll be in the sprint as well). Valverde to be spotty though.

A mountaintop sprint is rather different to a puncheur finish though, although the skills do overlap. Froome has never in his career shown anything on a true puncheur finish like this - however what he's shown on similar gradients on medium-length climbs (eg Peña Cabarga, Planche des Belles Filles) suggests he has the explosivity, but has he got enough to gain real separation when others don't already have a few km climbing at that gradient in their legs? That's what we don't know. The other thing with the Mur de Huy is how essential timing is. In 2008, Evans was strongest, but went way too early, which enabled the next group to come back to him and Kirchen was able to win. In 2010, Antón repeated that mistake, whereas Evans learned from his. Although the climb is less than 1,5km long for its main body, do not underestimate the need for patience. It's only 2011 Gilbert that hasn't had that as a concern. Froome crashed in April when riding Flèche as recon, which denied him the chance to experience it in racing conditions, so it remains to be seen how he will adapt to it and who will get the timing right and who will get it wrong.

 

[jaylew]

Purito crashed twice and is worried about his knee. Don't think he'll be a factor

 

[42x16ss]

I'd like to see the likes of MTN-Qhubeka or Europcar tear up the script and try something on this stage. A late all in attack from the likes of Voeckler or Kudus could stir up a hornets nest.

Between the difficulty of the run in and the narrow streets there's potential for a cracker of a stage.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

Valverde/ Purito FTW

Contador top 5

Nibali Froome top 10

Quintana top 15

I don't see Contador finishing ahead of Nibs and Froome on this one (Assuming they tackle Huy together ofc.). Froome is far more explosive and Nibs seems to have the form that Contador doesn't have yet.

Hmm? Froome far more explosive? Not at all, Contador is super explosive. If Contador doesn't beat Froome, it's because he is lacking racing rhythm.

Froome usually excels in short steep climbs (Pena Cabarga, PDBF, Allandas, Monte Castrove, Camperona).
Contador beat Froome fair and square in Covadonga and Farrapona but prior to those days he got distanced in Camperona. And Camperona resembles Huy much more than the previously mentioned two climbs. Huy is shorter ofc and Contador in top form also excels in those types of finishes (Mende, Bretagne). But right now he doesn't seem to have the form of Bretagne 2011 (different build up approach this year most probably)

It' a kind of joke?!
La Planche? Camperona? Pena? Castrove?
What are you talking about?! You compare those medium climbs to Huy ,a real wall , one of the steepest and shortest climb of the professional cycling circus?

Allandas, Camperona are steeper than Huy. Pena Cabargas last 2 km is as steep as Huy plus it has 3 preceding killer km. Check the profiles before making any comments.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

what's your point in that sentence? Seriously.

In that stage he showed he has what it takes,even this year. It's the only thing we have to go on. You can't say "he doesn't seem to have the form to do well on such a finish" when on the only similar finish this year he got a great result. There is nothing to suggest he doesn't have the form to do well tomorrow. There is something to suggest he does have it. See the point now?

First: "right now"=/= "in May". I think Contador doesn't have the Giro stage 12 form now. If he had, I'd be worried about his third week.
Second: competition is way different now

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

Allandas, Camperona are steeper than Huy. Pena Cabargas last 2 km is as steep as Huy plus it has 3 preceding killer km. Check the profiles before making any comments.

The steepness/difficulty is NOT the point. In fact, the fact that they are mid-length climbs is exactly why Matteo is not taking them into account. Because building up a rhythm on a steep climb then attacking after several minutes' sustained climbing is very different from having to change up and down gears from a cold open. I mean, Monte Zoncolan is steeper than the Mur de Huy, should we consider Ivan Basso a favourite because he won there in 2010? We know Froome is excellent on medium-length steep climbs, as he has been since 2011. But what we still do not know is what he can do on SHORT steep climbs. He crashed out of his attempt at Flèche earlier in the year so we haven't seen him race this.

Froome has hardly taken on any finishes of this type - super steep walls of 1-2km in length - in any kind of form since his reinvention in 2011, and when he has he hasn't been especially convincing - his most famous performance on this type of finishing wall is still his 2009 collapse on San Luca.

 

[Strawberry_Jam]

Anything could happen tomorrow. At 150km its not as long as the fleche (200km) and with not going up it multiple times it should be nothing like the classic, even though everybody waits for the huy anyway. Not being as tough, I don't think Dan Martin will win, although after todays tough stage anything could happen, like I said. Being a shorter stage however, might make the racing even faster and harder.

For the win? No idea. If i was a betting man, obviously Valverde is favourite. Barguil, Kelderman, Mollema or Yates' for the big money.

 

[Escarabajo]

All big four can be good here if in form. Basing the results on the FW results is happy thinking. I am not sure any of these guys have made it their target at all.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

The steepness/difficulty is NOT the point. In fact, the fact that they are mid-length climbs is exactly why Matteo is not taking them into account. Because building up a rhythm on a steep climb then attacking after several minutes' sustained climbing is very different from having to change up and down gears from a cold open. I mean, Monte Zoncolan is steeper than the Mur de Huy, should we consider Ivan Basso a favourite because he won there in 2010? We know Froome is excellent on medium-length steep climbs, as he has been since 2011. But what we still do not know is what he can do on SHORT steep climbs. He crashed out of his attempt at Flèche earlier in the year so we haven't seen him race this.

Froome has hardly taken on any finishes of this type - super steep walls of 1-2km in length - in any kind of form since his reinvention in 2011, and when he has he hasn't been especially convincing - his most famous performance on this type of finishing wall is still his 2009 collapse on San Luca.

Froome has raced the Vuelta 3 times in recent years and has taken a few finishes of this type. In 2011 he lost 20" to Purito in Valdepeñas and 25" in El Escorial. In 2012 he was 2nd in Jaca losing 5" to Purito and 5th in Ézaro losing 23" again to Purito.

 

[Asero831]

Will there be time gaps here. How will Teejay and Uran perform here?

 

[The Hitch]

Re:

Sagan seems to be in execellent shape. Can he challenge tomorrow or is Huy just a bit too tough for him? His best performance in FW is 12th place, but that was after a tough programme with MSR, semi-classics, Flanders and AGR. Maybe his body is in better shape now to tackle Huy. Will be interesting to see.

I think Sagan very much could challenge on Huy. If its the Sagan of 2013 MSB and Tirreno we are talking about, absolutely. I remember Thor Hushovd, who was a worse climber than Sagan, suddenly one year in the Tour taking time on a bunch of gc contenders including Liege winner Andy Schleck, on stages like this.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

Allandas, Camperona are steeper than Huy. Pena Cabargas last 2 km is as steep as Huy plus it has 3 preceding killer km. Check the profiles before making any comments.

The steepness/difficulty is NOT the point. In fact, the fact that they are mid-length climbs is exactly why Matteo is not taking them into account. Because building up a rhythm on a steep climb then attacking after several minutes' sustained climbing is very different from having to change up and down gears from a cold open. I mean, Monte Zoncolan is steeper than the Mur de Huy, should we consider Ivan Basso a favourite because he won there in 2010? We know Froome is excellent on medium-length steep climbs, as he has been since 2011. But what we still do not know is what he can do on SHORT steep climbs. He crashed out of his attempt at Flèche earlier in the year so we haven't seen him race this.

Froome has hardly taken on any finishes of this type - super steep walls of 1-2km in length - in any kind of form since his reinvention in 2011, and when he has he hasn't been especially convincing - his most famous performance on this type of finishing wall is still his 2009 collapse on San Luca.

Libertine, we know very well that how Pena Cabarga and Camperona and Allandas differ from Huy. And we also know very well how Covadonga and Ancares do. Well at least I know you do.
When we talk about Froome vs Contador tomorrows performance (the root of the debate in this case), the issue always converges in finding the ideal medium of comparison. Someone tends to see past results in the races that similar climbs have been raced. Some other tries to find a suitable/comparable race in which both of these riders have been involved.
Contador had a good result in Mende 2010 (3 km at 10%) but got dropped in Camperona (3km at 13%) by Froome.
In my previous comments I've given the deserved credit to Contador regarding his performances in Mende and Bretagne but how indicative can that past result be compared to their head-to-head test?
Plus there is the most ideal medium of comparison IMO, the Jenkins road.

 

[The Hitch]

Re: Re:

Was trying to prove that Froome does have some punch. Think he'll do fine on the Mur as well and be in the Top 10 (if the opportunity for the stage is there he'll be in the sprint as well). Valverde to be spotty though.

A mountaintop sprint is rather different to a puncheur finish though, although the skills do overlap. Froome has never in his career shown anything on a true puncheur finish like this -

But has he ever had to? Just because he hasn't succeeded when he wasn't trying, doesn't mean he won't when he is.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

Was trying to prove that Froome does have some punch. Think he'll do fine on the Mur as well and be in the Top 10 (if the opportunity for the stage is there he'll be in the sprint as well). Valverde to be spotty though.

A mountaintop sprint is rather different to a puncheur finish though, although the skills do overlap. Froome has never in his career shown anything on a true puncheur finish like this -

But has he ever had to? Just because he hasn't succeeded when he wasn't trying, doesn't mean he won't when he is.

My argument was not that he wouldn't succeed, my argument was that the example chosen wasn't really a useful one to use as a precedent, and that there are very few examples of Froome actually racing on the type of finish we can legitimately use as a precedent. Predicting what Froome will do in race conditions on the Mur de Huy is a crapshoot. He's never targeted the Ardennes, and the races he's won he hasn't had to win time in punchy stages.

 

[blaxland]

gerrans for the win.considering the whole team went to sleep in yesterdays stage.lol

 

[FCKAC]

Re: Re:

Nibali came 8th in 2012 lol. He might not be favourite to actually take the stage but he's ridden well on the climb several times before and he's probably in as good (if not better) condition here as he ever has been for FW

----

Not sure I agree with people saying Sagan is an option here. To me it looks like he's carrying more muscle than he has been for a while. Feels like he might have packed on the power for the sprints and may have a tougher time than before on the harder uphill finishes.

True, but 2012 was the only great classics season he's had in his career. Ever since, he's not been very punchy on small climbs. Anyway, the steepness of Huy may help him there. This is definitely not a climb for Quintana, while Contador's shape is questionable. Froome can do alright on these climbs, but they need to be a little longer for him to excel. His diesel-climbing won't like the sudden shift of rythm and accelerations at the bottom of the Mur.
As for the Maillot Jaune, Tom Dumoulin will be the favourite to take it. Huy is too steep for Fabian, even with the 2012 Seraing stage in mind.

Even since he turned into one giant peak per season person, I would expect him fight for the win and bonus seconds tomorrow.

 

[FCKAC]

Re:

Will there be time gaps here. How will Teejay and Uran perform here?

TJ lose 10 to 30 seconds