2015 Vuelta Stage 11: Andorra la Vella>Cortals d'Encamp 138k

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

This is one of the hardest stages I can remember. Can anyone point to a harder stage in the last 10 years?

I think that Valverde will crack. Rodriguez to do well, Majka also. Aru and Pozzovivo will disappoint. Quintana and Froome? No idea.

Gardeccia stage 2011 Giro? Was also raced very aggressively.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

This is one of the hardest stages I can remember. Can anyone point to a harder stage in the last 10 years?

I think that Valverde will crack. Rodriguez to do well, Majka also. Aru and Pozzovivo will disappoint. Quintana and Froome? No idea.

Gardeccia stage 2011 Giro? Was also raced very aggressively.

That came to my mind as well. Gardeccia was nearly 100kms longer though. This doesn't go as high or far but the constant gradients are going to give someone an opportunity to do something epic.

 

[Red Rick]

D-day for Quintana today, hopefully he'll go for it before the finishing climb to join a hopefully very strong breakaway.

I'm a little bit afraid of the Skytrain ruining all the fun

Dumoulin for the win

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

This is one of the hardest stages I can remember. Can anyone point to a harder stage in the last 10 years?

I think that Valverde will crack. Rodriguez to do well, Majka also. Aru and Pozzovivo will disappoint. Quintana and Froome? No idea.

Gardeccia stage 2011 Giro? Was also raced very aggressively.

That came to my mind as well. Gardeccia was nearly 100kms longer though. This doesn't go as high or far but the constant gradients are going to give someone an opportunity to do something epic.

Gardechia stage in a very different situation, Contador already had the GC all but locked up, so riders weren't afraid of ruining their chances for the win. And Contador I think started attacking on the Giau already I think, which may have been just for kicks.

Who in this field is gonna do that?

 

[Springveldt]

Surely this is a Quintana stage? If he doesn't win this, I don't like his overall chances for red.

Tom D will surely loose red and probably drop out of the top 5, I can't see him making it over all these climbs with the smaller guys.

Who knows what Froome is going to show up, yo-yo or Sky train?

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2015 Vuelta Stage 11: Andorra la Vella>Cortals d'Encamp

I hope Movistar goes full ***, so Dumoulin is isolated early. IMO Quintana should try an attack on the Gallina, maybe thats not the best choice but it would guarantee a great stage. I don't think Froome will be as strong as on sunday. He also was one of the best on the first two 3rd category mtf's so it wasnt surprising that he was very good on another short but very steep climb too. However he lost half a minute on the last kilometer of the only long climb so far, so I think he will have problems on multiple climbs stages like this too.

 

[Flamin]

Good OP. Surreal stage. Although it's better not to, but I have high hopes because there is no particularly strong team here. Well, Sky is, but I don't believe they are going to try and just control for Froome. Sending Henao in the break yesterday was a sign for that and I think they will do the same here with Nieve.

 

[Lexman]

If it rains Froome's chances will diminish drastically

Oh i'm waiting for this stage a long while, was in Andorra last year in july and loved the region a lot will be fun to see it again

 

[Domulec]

Tomorrow of all days I will be travelling the entire day, so unable to watch it. Maybe I can control my curiosity and download the full stage somewhere to watch on friday, but that's not going to be easy.

 

[Arredondo]

If it rains, Purito will be good. I think he will finish in the top-5, perhaps top-3. And he will attack from further out.

Bala to crack indeed, because of his not so impressive form + crash. I expect Majka to do really good, just as Quintana.

Don't know about Aru. He's good in a relatively flat stage with a MTF at the end. He's not that good in a stage with multiple hard climbs. Froome could do well. This stage is ideal for riding your own tempo. Chaves to lose time, just as Dumoulin (it has to be).

Torres will be the surprise of the day. He will just be caught on the last climb after a long break.

1. Quintana
2. Majka
3. Froome
4. Torres
5. Purito

 

[vedrafjord]

Wearing my green-tinted glasses for a minute, it's so annoying that Dan Martin can't ride a bike for 10 days without falling off, because I was looking forward to seeing how he'd handle this stage as a GC contender (vs say 2013 Tour stage 9 which was multi climb but not as tough and no MTF). If Roche starts grinding on the big ring he's toast.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Re:

If it rains, Purito will be good. I think he will finish in the top-5, perhaps top-3. And he will attack from further out.

Bala to crack indeed, because of his not so impressive form + crash. I expect Majka to do really good, just as Quintana.

Don't know about Aru. He's good in a relatively flat stage with a MTF at the end. He's not that good in a stage with multiple hard climbs. Froome could do well. This stage is ideal for riding your own tempo. Chaves to lose time, just as Dumoulin (it has to be).

Torres will be the surprise of the day. He will just be caught on the last climb after a long break.

1. Quintana
2. Majka
3. Froome
4. Torres
5. Purito

I don't see any reason to suggest that Aru can only ride well on stages with a single hard climb. Apart from the stages that contradict this I don't really see any logical reason

 

[Red Rick]

Froome had a lot of advantage on Cumbre del Sol from pacing himself better than the others. He won't have that advantage on the first 3/4 climbs of the day.

But, the most important question tomorrow...

When does the coverage start?

 

[Sasquatch]

Re:

If it rains, Purito will be good. I think he will finish in the top-5, perhaps top-3. And he will attack from further out.

Bala to crack indeed, because of his not so impressive form + crash. I expect Majka to do really good, just as Quintana.

Don't know about Aru. He's good in a relatively flat stage with a MTF at the end. He's not that good in a stage with multiple hard climbs. Froome could do well. This stage is ideal for riding your own tempo. Chaves to lose time, just as Dumoulin (it has to be).

Torres will be the surprise of the day. He will just be caught on the last climb after a long break.

1. Quintana
2. Majka
3. Froome
4. Torres
5. Purito

Torres is still recovering from illness. If any of the Colombian riders is the surprise of the day it will be Cano.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

If it rains, Purito will be good. I think he will finish in the top-5, perhaps top-3. And he will attack from further out.

Define further out.

 

[Billie]

Re:

This is one of the hardest stages I can remember. Can anyone point to a harder stage in the last 10 years?

The Peyragudes stage in the 2013 Vuelta was harder than this one. 230 kms with about the same height meters.

 

[Brullnux]

About Aru, it is worth mentioning that the Cervinia stage which he won contained 3 hard climbs. It is not as hard as today, but it is probably the closest we have seen with him in a stage like this. Mortirolo maybe, and that went badly but apparently he was ill that day. Actually, the Stelvio stage is the hardest stage we have seen him do, and he did very well on that day. Ofc he finished like 4 minutes behind NQ but quite a bit ahead of Majka. Froome is the best in the world at single climb days, but is the worst of the big 4 if it becomes a really attritional day.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Weather
Rain in the afternoon, possible thunderstorms.

 

[Inquitus]

Re: Re:

This is one of the hardest stages I can remember. Can anyone point to a harder stage in the last 10 years?

The Peyragudes stage in the 2013 Vuelta was harder than this one. 230 kms with about the same height meters.

In this case I think the shorter distance packed with climbing may make this harder, less time for recovery, as well as having such a hard climb right out of the gate.

 

[fauniera]

Re: 2015 Vuelta Stage 11: Andorra la Vella>Cortals d'Encamp

Nairo weather then, and of course Nairo terrain.

 

[yaco]

Two keys to the stage

- How hard the peleton race the stage. No surprise if this stage is ridden conservatively
- Its important to ride at your tempo. have no doubt that some will go out to hard to early and suffer. better to be patient and you'll do well in the last two mountains.

 

[jens_attacks]

aru will attack on rabassa. all i know.

 

[sir fly]

The stage looks awesome. Looks good for the performance programming, as well.
Unfortunately, the chances are that the action will come only at the end. Tempo and attrition by then.
It's so hard stage, after the rest day, and everybody's still uncertain about each other's (and their own) capacities.
But the combination of factors will hit somebody hard. Not all the GC contenders (at the moment) will start the final ascent together.
KOM points on offer should draw out a strong mix of climbers in the day's breakaway. Their battle could be more exciting than the GC one.

The long distance action should be expected on a stage later in the race.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

This is one of the hardest stages I can remember. Can anyone point to a harder stage in the last 10 years?

I think that Valverde will crack. Rodriguez to do well, Majka also. Aru and Pozzovivo will disappoint. Quintana and Froome? No idea.

Gardeccia stage 2011 Giro? Was also raced very aggressively.

And it was 220km. Favourites started their battle with 2 more climbs to come. Crazy day that was. Will never forget that's for sure!

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

This is one of the hardest stages I can remember. Can anyone point to a harder stage in the last 10 years?

I think that Valverde will crack. Rodriguez to do well, Majka also. Aru and Pozzovivo will disappoint. Quintana and Froome? No idea.

Gardeccia stage 2011 Giro? Was also raced very aggressively.

That came to my mind as well. Gardeccia was nearly 100kms longer though. This doesn't go as high or far but the constant gradients are going to give someone an opportunity to do something epic.

Gardechia stage in a very different situation, Contador already had the GC all but locked up, so riders weren't afraid of ruining their chances for the win. And Contador I think started attacking on the Giau already I think, which may have been just for kicks.

Who in this field is gonna do that?

Actually it was Purito who started the hostilities. Can you imagine that?