2015 Vuelta stage 14: Vitoria > Fuente del Chivo 215km

[Flamin]

Puerto de Estacas de Trueba, 3ª (km 118): 1.140 m – 11 km – 3 %
Puerto del Escudo, 1ª (km 158,5): 1.010 m – 7 km – 9 % (not counting previous false flat)
Alto Campoo – Fuente del Chivo, Es (Meta): 1.990 m – 18 km – 5,6 % (another hilarious categorization)

The longest stage of this Vuelta and the start of a very important tríptico, but I would be very surprised if anything significant happened here. Final climb is too shallow and very exposed to the wind.

Looks good for a break away.

 

[jens_attacks]

Mikel landa from the breakaway.

 

[pink_jersey]

Purito or Valverde in a sprint.Or maybe Aru with an attack in the last km.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

Mikel landa from the breakaway.

No way. He has to be there for Aru so that they can gain some time on Dumoulin. It's more likely that he will win from the GC group if anything. But even that is unlikely becuase Aru needs the time bonuses.

 

[WheelofGear]

I'm thinking either Nieve or Majka.

 

[TommyPlus]

Dombrowski wins this

 

[Arredondo]

Rodolfo Torres.

A group of 12 GC-guys to finish in the same time.

 

[Red Rick]

Lol categorization and lol choice of climb, too flatbwith the only 2km worth attacking at the very end

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

Lol categorization and lol choice of climb, too flatbwith the only 2km worth attacking at the very end

Yeah, would have been better and funnier to watch if del Escudo was the last climb.

 

[Escarabajo]

Because of the length of the last climb, even if flattish, there is going to be separation among the GC guys.

This one for the break away.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Because of the length of the last climb, even if flattish, there is going to be separation among the GC guys.

This one for the break away.

Alpujarra also was 16 km long.

 

[WheelofGear]

Do we have any chances of seeing GC attacks on the penultimate climb? Perhaps even on the long downhill of the cat 3 climb?

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Do we have any chances of seeing GC attacks on the penultimate climb? Perhaps even on the long downhill of the cat 3 climb?

No, that's just suicide. After the top of that 2nd category climb, there are still 40 flat km's left before the last climb. Way too much.

The only thing GC-wise that can happen, is that someone in the top-8 has a bad day and drops on the penultimate climb, and the other teams will ride full to drop him for good.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Not a stage design I like. Anyway Aru to win with a 850 meter uphill sprint.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

Not a stage design I like. Anyway Aru to win with a 850 meter uphill sprint.

I think he needs more time. Should at the very least attack when he sees the 2k sign.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Not a stage design I like. Anyway Aru to win with a 850 meter uphill sprint.

I think he needs more time. Should at the very least attack when he sees the 2k sign.

I agree. Anyway, this is a climb that suits Aru - i.e not over 10%. HE will do less well on stage 16

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Not a stage design I like. Anyway Aru to win with a 850 meter uphill sprint.

I think he needs more time. Should at the very least attack when he sees the 2k sign.

I agree. Anyway, this is a climb that suits Aru - i.e not over 10%. HE will do less well on stage 16

Yeah, and before that Astana need to set a brutal pace in the 10k before the steep gradients kick in.

Landa will be more important than ever. Let's hope he'll stay with Aru.

 

[Jspear]

1. Aru
2. Majka
3. Landa
Quintana: DNF

 

[Dazed and Confused]

If Landa pulls out the ear piece with 30k to go and teams up with Roche with a one-two my respect will be complete.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Any news on Quintana? He's not going to enjoy these next few tougher stages if he's ill. Credit to him for keeping in riding.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Because of the length of the last climb, even if flattish, there is going to be separation among the GC guys.

This one for the break away.

Alpujarra also was 16 km long.

This is 1 week later.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Let's hope he'll stay with Aru.

Lets hope he goes completely nuts, flicks his team and goes for the win!

 

[May0maniac]

Dombrowski from the breakaway.

 

[The Hitch]

lol, what an epic stage finish name.

 

[Gigs_98]

Believe me or not, but I say tomorrow will decide the Vuelta. Tomorrow is the stage which suits Aru absolutely perfect, with a medium steep mtf and at least one 1st category climb before, where Astana could set a high pace to isolate Dumoulin (which shouldnt be difficult). If he doesnt get time on Tom tomorrow there are only two mtf's left and Ermita de Alba probably suits Dumoulin better (considering what we have seen until now). Btw, this predictions doesnt include the last 4 stages because I have absolutely no idea how these stages will be raced. But the first two downhill finishes are quite easy and the last one has a flat section directly after the top of the last climb, so Aru will need a big advantage or he would be caught by Dumoulin.