2015 Vuelta stage 18: Roa > Riaza 204km

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Break of 20 riders.

20 riders: 1/3 Astana + 1/3 Movistar + 1/3 Katusha

That would be roughly 19 riders. The 20th will be Domoulin.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

Break of 20 riders.

20 riders: 1/3 Astana + 1/3 Movistar + 1/3 Katusha

That would be roughly 19 riders. The 20th will be Domoulin.

No, no... 18.
+ Dumoulin = 20.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

These are the best climbs for action, not the steep ones. Now look at all those up and downs. It is actually perfect for attacking.

Yep, exactly like Liège .

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 18: Roa > Riaza 205km

I expect exactly nothing from this stage. I am not even sure if it would be good to see action here because Aru might take red and that would make stage 20 lame. Best scenario would be Dumoulin and Aru finishing together behind Quintana, Majka and Rodriguez, with a gap of about a minute between these groups.

 

[DFA123]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 18: Roa > Riaza 205km

I expect exactly nothing from this stage. I am not even sure if it would be good to see action here because Aru might take red and that would make stage 20 lame. Best scenario would be Dumoulin and Aru finishing together behind Quintana, Majka and Rodriguez, with a gap of about a minute between these groups.

It could be good in a way if Aru took red tomorrow by a few seconds. Surely Dumoulin would go all out to get it back going on some crazy attacks in the next few days, trying to time trial away solo; this may well be the only chance in his career to win a GT.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 18: Roa > Riaza 205km

I expect exactly nothing from this stage. I am not even sure if it would be good to see action here because Aru might take red and that would make stage 20 lame. Best scenario would be Dumoulin and Aru finishing together behind Quintana, Majka and Rodriguez, with a gap of about a minute between these groups.

+ Valv.

Imagine that happening, Aru and Dumoulin doing a Contador-Schleck on Ax-3. Could make for godlike prospects for the following 2 days. 99% wont happen tho

 

[del1962]

Tom D to get bonus seconds in sprint from small group of GC riders

 

[jsem94]

I'm not sure if Giant should be chasing breaks down, or letting them stay and letting the bonus seconds be eaten up by the break. Tom might end up needing them, and maybe they will try to give Degenkolb a stage or so.. haha.

 

[Bushman]

Re: Re:

This climb is not nearly hard enough to do anything.
There is even a risk Dumoulin gaining time at intermediate sprint or finish.

Of course it's hard enough; especially at the end of a lumpy stage, in the third week of a GT, the day after a time trial. Tours have been won before on much easier climbs than this.

If Dumoulin was hanging by the toårs, yes, but as it stands now he isn't. Aru won't gain time tomorrow

 

[Cance > TheRest]

I'm pretty confident Aru/JRod could physically drop Dumoulin on that last climb with an all-out attack. Question is if they can sustain a gap from the top of Quesera? Aru could ofcourse go for bonus seconds aswell, if it's a reduced group sprint. We saw in the Giro that he's a good sprinter

 

[Red Rick]

Where are they gonna drop Dumoulin? On the 5% part or the 4% part. The more important drag and rolling resistance get, the more benefit Dumoulin has.

 

[Orbit501]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin has not shown a great descender so far. On La Gallina but also on the Cobertoria descent he was in 3rd last position after doing the climb somewhere in the middle of the group

on la gallina he was struggling putting on a jacket. On Cobertoria he had to get food himself. That's the downside of having no team.

I did notice him dropping off the back certainly, but I was also wondering at the time if he was going easy on those descents just to get down safe to ensure he didn't crash and lose the GC group and ruin his race completely. This is even more crucial when you haven't got a single team member to try to pace you back on, unlike all the other GC riders.

But for the relative descending skills of Aru v Dumoulin?, I really don't know the answer to be honest. I'd love to know how others think they compare, as descending could potentially decide this race now.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Dumoulin is a good descender and can steer well. Otherwise you cannot do well in prologues and time trials anyway. Especially not the ones so technical as the Pais Vasco time trial this year which was really technical including downhills

His added weight also helps

 

[Orbit501]

Re:

Dumoulin is a good descender and can steer well. Otherwise you cannot do well in prologues and time trials anyway. Especially not the ones so technical as the Pais Vasco time trial this year which was really technical including downhills

His added weight also helps

Good points, well put.

1 - 0 to Dumoulin there then

Anyone want to make a case for Aru?

 

[jsem94]

He won't get caught behind putting on a raincoat this time.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin is a good descender and can steer well. Otherwise you cannot do well in prologues and time trials anyway. Especially not the ones so technical as the Pais Vasco time trial this year which was really technical including downhills

His added weight also helps

Good points, well put.

1 - 0 to Dumoulin there then

Anyone want to make a case for Aru?

Aru has a problem descending everytime that he opens his mouth!

 

[BigMac]

Even if it comes to the GC boys sprinting for bonus seconds, Dumoulin is the fastest.

 

[LPP68!]

If Aru could make it over the summit a few riders for Dumoulin, and one or 2 of them are Astana-riders, they could go down just a tad slow, giving Aru an extra gap. Overtaking in descents can cost time and risk.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Even if it comes to the GC boys sprinting for bonus seconds, Dumoulin is the fastest.

Not so sure about that. Purito seems faster to me, also Aru is pretty fast for a GC rider. No need to mention Valverde though...

 

[Orbit501]

Re:

Even if it comes to the GC boys sprinting for bonus seconds, Dumoulin is the fastest.

...and has the best sprint train .

All hail the German porn star!, he'd be very willing to help pay back Tom for all those lead outs I'm sure.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Even if it comes to the GC boys sprinting for bonus seconds, Dumoulin is the fastest.

Valverde will look for stage wins/podiums and is faster than dumoulin. If it's intermediate sprints, then the break will mop up those.

 

[Orbit501]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin is a good descender and can steer well. Otherwise you cannot do well in prologues and time trials anyway. Especially not the ones so technical as the Pais Vasco time trial this year which was really technical including downhills

His added weight also helps

Good points, well put.

1 - 0 to Dumoulin there then

Anyone want to make a case for Aru?

Aru has a problem descending everytime that he opens his mouth!

That's a bit harsh!

I know calling Nibs the shark is a compliment, but to suggest that Aru is the basking version of the species is just not nice at all.

 

[BigMac]

Re: Re:

Even if it comes to the GC boys sprinting for bonus seconds, Dumoulin is the fastest.

Not so sure about that. Purito seems faster to me, also Aru is pretty fast for a GC rider. No need to mention Valverde though...

I idiotically forgot about Valverde, because until today I thought he was out of the fight. But Purito and Aru? Hell no, Dumoulin is way faster. His second place last year in Québec proves just that.

 

[WheelofGear]

The stage should have ended at the 14k mark. It would be like riding of the Ardennes classics.

It's perfect for Dumoulin. Not a stage for Aru to attack, but he kinda has too.

It's good for people with guts. A shame a guy like Purito doesn't attack from far out. It would have been good for him with the constant uphill-downhill before and climb. He could get rid off Majka as a podium threat.

There is a good chance that Valverde will attack if he still is fresh.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 18: Roa > Riaza 205km

Rodriguez and Aru will try on that climb, but a break will stay away.

You would think that Fraile would go in the break to seal the jersey so he can soft pedal Saturday's stage knowing that he can't lose the jersey. If he wins the first 2 climbs, he's probably got a big enough lead depending on who picks up points.

Goncalves FTW. Although I think tomorrow's stage will suit Goncalves better. But Goncalves will win today.