2015 Vuelta stage 6: Córdoba > Sierra de Cazorla 200.3km

[HelloDolly]

I must be missing something but I don't understand the tactics today . How can Valverde & Purito not be going for these stages and the bonus seconds if they want to win the Vuleta or are they already riding for the podium. Don't they know the SKY train is coming and they need to be on the rails ahead of this train ? Also why are all GC teams letting Chaves (and to a lesser extent, Dumoulon & Martin ) so far up the road. Strange ..it must be they are all hoping to ride into form or something. Can't see any other reason

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

I must be missing something but I don't understand the tactics today . How can Valverde & Purito not be going for these stages and the bonus seconds if they want to win the Vuleta or are they already riding for the podium. Don't they know the SKY train is coming and they need to be on the rails ahead of this train ? Also why are all GC teams letting Chaves (and to a lesser extent, Dumoulon & Martin ) so far up the road. Strange ..it must be they are all hoping to ride into form or something. Can't see any other reason

My take is that they don't think the race will be won on these types of stages. With a couple of the monster stages that they have to prepare for, they're just trying to limit anything serious in time to some of the outsiders, but aren't interested in burning up any more energy than they need to. I suspect this is the right tactic, considering some of the MTF's to come. Still...we won't know until we know, right?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I mean that seriously, I can imagine that Dumoulin wins the vuelta. He climbs extremely well, he is a better TT rider than any other gc contender and he has already a decent advantage on guys like Aru

If Dumoulin is within 5 mins of the GC leader before the start of the stage 17 TT, you can choose my avatar

I think you misunderstand me. I don't think that Dumoulin wins the vuelta but I can't remember that Dumoulin has ever climbed that good on short but steep climbs too. The point is that if he can also surprise me on longer climbs he, suddenly becomes a gc contender and with the long ITT still to come he suddenly would be one of my favorites.
What would you have said if I had told you a guy called Froome will finish 2nd in 2011, four years ago, only beaten by Cobo. You know, the Vuelta writes crazy stories and although its still very unlikely I think this could become another one.

Actually Dumoulin has always, and i mean always, been good, relative to his competitors, on hilly terrain, including steep hills.
His first breakthrough victory was in a U23 race in portugal as part of the dutch selection. He was compleet unknown, but was in the first group of 3 or something on the hills and decided the race in the ITT. It has always been that was on the pro's as well. 2 years ago in the ENECO he already showed he is really strong on short steep hills. It's why the classics were a focus point for him besides the ITT. But he is struggling with races longer than 230km+ so you don't see him in Amstel and Liege yet.

The long climbs are really his weakest point and it's also why I don't see him going for GC, after he loses 2 minutes in the first long mountain stage he'll give it up

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

I thought Martin timed has attack well this time. He's just not as good as Chaves on these stages right now - on stage 2 he tried to follow when Chaves attacked and couldn't go with him

He took fifteen seconds back on Chaves and passed Dumoulin. The notion that Chaves (or Dumoulin) is "just better right now" than Martin (or Valverde or Purito) is just wishful thinking, Chaves is doing great, is a big talent and has excellent form, but today he won through good timing and the failure of any of the big favourites to even attempt to respond until it was too late.

The finish was steep / shallow / steep. 9 times out of 10 at least any move on the first steep section is doomed to failure. Chaves went too early and understandably slowed a bit late on but is insanely good right now. If he'd have gone when Martin went he'd have won by more than he did imo

Anything is of course possible, but the fact remains that once Martin went he pulled back Chaves extremely quickly. Which is what we would normally expect to happen. The reason why early moves are normally doomed is because they are usually made by outsiders who aren't good enough or if they are made by favourites the other favourites respond. Nobody made any effort at all to follow Chaves, when has already shown he is too strong a rider to let take a huge lead. Once one of the favourites went, he was quite a lot faster. Chaves benefited from something Martin often used to benefit from: not being seen as a "real" favourite by the bigger names.

That's not to criticise Chaves, who was strong and clever. But he's not suddenly "better" than the very top Ardennes men.

He doesn't have to be better. Keep in mind what the level is here - in all likelihood pretty low. A lot of the top riders are here but having done the Tour they are probably going to be well below their best. Right now the fresh guys are serving it up to them - that's not really a surprise especially early in the race

Next similar finish is on sunday although a bit harder. Say Chaves attacks early, what do you think Martin should do ? Try and follow as per stage 2 or wait like today? He's been beaten both ways so far but got closer by waiting

Landa , Aru , Possovivo, etc have not ridden the Tour
Roche & Martin have ..and it was very hard for them too

So you point that the level is very low because of the Tour does not really add up

 

[barmaher]

A nice finale. I agree with the point that Martin was not as strong as Chaves. When the latter went, I thought it was too soon. He is super strong, though great win.

Nice to see Dan Martin in good form. Can he keep it going for 3 weeks? If so, maybe a top 5.

How is Chaves in long climbs? Again a chance of a top 5 if he can keep it up.

I give Dumoulin no chance. Famous last words, I know...

Who knows how Froome, Aru, Valverde and Purito are. I doubt they know themselves.

 

[Escarabajo]

Chaves is good in all kind of climbs. His problem has always been recovery in a 3 week GT's.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

Don't think the Tour guys can really peak anymore, just hang on to their form for dear life and hope they don't get deep fried, baked, cooked and barbequed, all at the same time

For the only one who that could happens is Quintana, becoue it his first time to double Tour-Vuelta, but not for the rest.

But with Quintana you never knows, as well it is not normal to be second in your first GT, and more if is le Tour. That is totally unusual, so he could double well too...who knows..

I expect Froome with a level similar to le Tour, with less spark, but enough to win to the people that came from il Giro or Chaves. Tomorrow is not a bad day for him, long climb, not very step. and he must be there with the best. He just need to be regular, take advantage of a stage as fuente del Chivo, and do a good TT in Burgos.

People from leTour as Purito or Valverde looks that dont want to waste any extra power.

Landa looks like he just follow Aru and dont waste more energy, other way his director could be upset if he pur some econd to Aru...

It was not his first GT

Yes, it is true, he rode la Vuelt before, he did 36 and he showed big potenjtial some days. Anyway is not normal to be second in the first Tour de France... he was lucky that fisrt week started with climbs and wanst long, but it was amazing.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Who's older, Quintana or Chaves?

Quintana is ageless an Chaves in 12 years old, just like Formolo.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Re:

Chaves is good in all kind of climbs. His problem has always been recovery in a 3 week GT's.

that's never been his problem. his problem has been laying in a hospital bed for many months and not being able to even sit on a bike for nearly a year, let alone train. then a number of injuries and illnesses on important training moments and races. including after strade bianche, his first race this year and with such a (still) weak base he can't have anything against him.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Chaves is good in all kind of climbs. His problem has always been recovery in a 3 week GT's.

I think he is similar to Pozzovivo, but he is young and his best is to come, we dont really know if he is not good for 3 weeks. I think no, but who knows.

The fact is that he started very well, he has put time to everybody, and except the ITT he could be with the best. People regret to give time to Horner later. Chaves is fresher than others.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

Collective brainfart again. I'm usually not the type to go after cyclists but good lord. How do you let Chaves ride away like that, and look at each others instead. It's not like he's a nobody anymore. Dan Martin, as much as I like him, proving himself not to be the smart rider everyone thinks he is. One can only think he mistimes it on purpose. Props to Lawson Craddock on driving the sheeple up the first half of the climb and setting up a Dumoulin attack.

Painful to watch. Congrats to Chaves, Orica dominates first weeks of GT's.

Two really great points. Tactically, Orica was Aces. When it happened I thought Chaves went too early but he attacked at the steepest part of the climb and rolled on to victory. Simply Brilliant. Additionally, Orica knows there strengths. They understand they currently don't have GT winner so they concentrate on the first week. chapeau.

Also your Dan Martin comment is spot on. He has the power but is lost tactically. Ironically, his tour stage win was against fuglsang who is also tactically inept but Ox strong.

One final note, after watching the Orica Backstage Pass episodes, you can't help but root for Chaves. Seems like a genuinely nice dude.

Stephens said to spanish TV that it wanst planed, that today they wanted just stay there, no more. The man to put cgavez on the front was Impey, but he had a mechanical..and Neil said that the team managed without his help to know what to do and that chaved attacked on his way and he was lucky...he wa like asking himself if maybe sometimes is better rely on riders feelings, but he said sometimes this attackss has no prize.

He said the aim is top ten.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

I thought Martin timed has attack well this time. He's just not as good as Chaves on these stages right now - on stage 2 he tried to follow when Chaves attacked and couldn't go with him

He took fifteen seconds back on Chaves and passed Dumoulin. The notion that Chaves (or Dumoulin) is "just better right now" than Martin (or Valverde or Purito) is just wishful thinking, Chaves is doing great, is a big talent and has excellent form, but today he won through good timing and the failure of any of the big favourites to even attempt to respond until it was too late.

The finish was steep / shallow / steep. 9 times out of 10 at least any move on the first steep section is doomed to failure. Chaves went too early and understandably slowed a bit late on but is insanely good right now. If he'd have gone when Martin went he'd have won by more than he did imo

Anything is of course possible, but the fact remains that once Martin went he pulled back Chaves extremely quickly. Which is what we would normally expect to happen. The reason why early moves are normally doomed is because they are usually made by outsiders who aren't good enough or if they are made by favourites the other favourites respond. Nobody made any effort at all to follow Chaves, when has already shown he is too strong a rider to let take a huge lead. Once one of the favourites went, he was quite a lot faster. Chaves benefited from something Martin often used to benefit from: not being seen as a "real" favourite by the bigger names.

That's not to criticise Chaves, who was strong and clever. But he's not suddenly "better" than the very top Ardennes men.

He's not suddenly better overall, but he's without a doubt better than Martin right now. Of course Dan was going to start pulling him back quickly - Chaves had been out there hammering for awhile while Dan was sitting in the group going a moderate pace. Dan was never going to win this stage no matter what he did.

 

[jaylew]

Chavez again,he's really flying at the moment.Impressive ride for Dumoulin too.Another missed opportunity for Valverde&J.Rod.

This is not an missed opportunity for Jrod. Look at how mant riders finish together. This is just a Bala-finish. Not steep enough for Purito.

Good decision by Katusha to let the boni's (and win) grab by some outsiders. A win by Bala would be the most worst outcome.

When did so many of your posts become about making excuses for Purito and making digs (subtle or otherwise) at Valverde? I don't feel like you were always that way but this year it seems like a decent percentage of your posts are dedicated to it.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=134&v=jGafx6HF-vE

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

My take is that they don't think the race will be won on these types of stages. With a couple of the monster stages that they have to prepare for, they're just trying to limit anything serious in time to some of the outsiders, but aren't interested in burning up any more energy than they need to. I suspect this is the right tactic, considering some of the MTF's to come. Still...we won't know until we know, right?

That was a brutal stage finish for the first week, as predicted it would be. Short steep climbs after long flats are the worst, at least for me I need a few gentle uphill k's first to transition into climbing mode. Froome et al can gain a ton of time on a long climb very quickly.

Today's stage should be the first test of this theory. I rode in that area (eastern Sierra) this spring and couldn't imagine doing it in the heat of summer.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re:

I must be missing something but I don't understand the tactics today . How can Valverde & Purito not be going for these stages and the bonus seconds if they want to win the Vuleta or are they already riding for the podium. Don't they know the SKY train is coming and they need to be on the rails ahead of this train ? Also why are all GC teams letting Chaves (and to a lesser extent, Dumoulon & Martin ) so far up the road. Strange ..it must be they are all hoping to ride into form or something. Can't see any other reason

They are scared of each other.

And Chaves, Martin and Dumoulin have no chance to podium the overall so let them chase their success.

 

[Arredondo]

Chavez again,he's really flying at the moment.Impressive ride for Dumoulin too.Another missed opportunity for Valverde&J.Rod.

This is not an missed opportunity for Jrod. Look at how mant riders finish together. This is just a Bala-finish. Not steep enough for Purito.

Good decision by Katusha to let the boni's (and win) grab by some outsiders. A win by Bala would be the most worst outcome.

When did so many of your posts become about making excuses for Purito and making digs (subtle or otherwise) at Valverde? I don't feel like you were always that way but this year it seems like a decent percentage of your posts are dedicated to it.

It annoyes me when members just say things without actual facts/circumstances/arguments.

And where do i make a dig at Valverde? I just say it's a perfect finish for Bala, and not for Purito. It has been for 10 YEARS. So if you think in a Katusha way, the best outcome is that an outsider wins a stage that is tailor made for Bala, and let Valverde lose it.

If Moreno had a good day, they could let him attack and try for the stage. But as often, Moreno falters on the big moments, so Katusha just had to ride on the wheels.

It surprises me how many members don't know past results anymore, and the showing on Caminito del Rey. But instead of confirming that lack of knowledge/tend to overestimate/bash Purito, they say i give digs at Valverde and making excuses. That's really ridiculous

 

[BigMac]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=134&v=jGafx6HF-vE

I know right, Lawson Craddock is amazing.