2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km)

[Escarabajo]

I expect fireworks for two reasons:

- It is short
- Flat stage the day after.

 

[Miburo]

Only in the giro these climbs are rated 2nd category, in the tour that would be HC

 

[Climbing]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km

Unless someone gets a very bad day I won’t expect much happening in the last week.
Valverde will be back to his usual self in GT trying to see what happens and grab podium.
Chavez might a be a serious challenger, but will be content with second I guess.

Let’s be honest, the only rider unhappy and willing to make a risky move it’s Nibali, unfortunately he hasn’t the legs… so probably will try some long range attacks and fail.
At least it will be entertaining, he doesn’t need another podium anyway, and the move might open the stages for some serious riding.

 

[shalgo]

Amador and Fuglsang should attack on the first climb. Kruijswick may be the strongest, but he has no team. If he has to chase, then Nibali or Valverde could attack on the Paganella when he is tired. The problem, I suppose, is that Tinkoff would likely ride to keep the gap small, to protect Majka's position.

 

[barmaher]

This stage has such a range of possibilities. It could go to favourites group (Valverde, Ulissi) or to the breakaway (Moser, Ulissi, Wellens). It could be written conservatively, or it could be carnage from the first climb.

 

[Arredondo]

Darwin has to win, for his mother!

 

[Kwibus]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km

Battaglin could win this Oropa-style but he'll work for Kruijswijk instead.

That said, Rigo with a major comeback here.

Isnogood stop your Machado posts please.

 

[BigMac]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km

Battaglin could win this Oropa-style but he'll work for Kruijswijk instead.

That said, Rigo with a major comeback here.

Isnogood stop your Machado posts please.

It's true, though.

Moreover, Battaglin > Machado and I > IzNoGoud.

 

[CraZyCaLL]

Very high pace right from the start, all GC guys to finish together. Valverde will win the stage

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re:

IMHO, The Big Teams (Astana & Movistar) Have to hit Lotto Jumbo. Hard on the first climb. Isolate the Maglia Rosa. And work him over. If you do not crack him...You will be draining his energy for later in the week.

This stage would be more exciting if they started the race directly in Bolzano.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

Breakaway will win.

 

[jens_attacks]

Astana will send guys up front from the start

Nibali will attack on mendola. If he expects paganella, he can't take more than 30 seconds on Steve

 

[staubsauger]

Seriously it seems like Nibali is pretty much done with Astana and given his reaction after yesterday's mechanical, it even looks like he's done with this Giro. The restday might rebuild what the heat of the moment destroyed. But I wouldn't be surprised if Nibali ain't got no ambition to take any risk on and off the road, to win this Giro anymore. It might be pure preparation for the Olympics and the Tour from now on. Astana can't do nothing about it.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Seriously it seems like Nibali is pretty much done with Astana and given his reaction after yesterday's mechanical, it even looks like he's done with this Giro. The restday might rebuild what the heat of the moment destroyed. But I wouldn't be surprised if Nibali ain't got no ambition to take any risk on and off the road, to win this Giro anymore. It might be pure preparation for the Olympics and the Tour from now on. Astana can't do nothing about it.

I think that's a bit harsh on Nibali. He's not one to throw in the towel, and certainly not on Italian soil. He will also know he's got next to no chance of doing anything other than stage-hunt at the Tour - given the level of competition there and the difficulty of this Giro.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re:

urggghhh... yet again if nibali / contador are not in the race lead, we allegedly need hell on the road, early attacks, risky moves, alliances,,, however everything is fine when they are in driving seat. people being victims of their own ionospheric hype make the forum board really hilarious.

We don't need hell on the road. But if you look at the recent few years, who has been willing (and sometimes able) to completely split the race up reasonably early, Astana and Contador.

Amador and Fuglsang should attack on the first climb. Kruijswick may be the strongest, but he has no team. If he has to chase, then Nibali or Valverde could attack on the Paganella when he is tired. The problem, I suppose, is that Tinkoff would likely ride to keep the gap small, to protect Majka's position.

Exactly. If guys from the lower half of the top ten start attacking, others will chase. The guys sent up the road will be stage hunting/ready to join up with Nibali or Valverde (if they somehow manage to slip away from Kruijswick).

Astana will send guys up front from the start

Nibali will attack on mendola. If he expects paganella, he can't take more than 30 seconds on Steve

I'm expecting Astana and Movistar to infiltrate the break. As it's the first day after the rest day and the next couple of days are pretty flat, the beginning and the first climb will be raced pretty hard. However, I can't see Nibali getting away from Kruijswick and unless he's feeling better than at the weekend, he'll wait until the big mountain stages. Valverde will play a waiting game. Chaves' strategy will be to try and chip away at Kruijswick's lead at the finish of each mountain stage. Kruijswick will ignore all others. If there are any serious attacks on Mendola (I'm not ruling it out, but I'm not holding my breath),Kruijswick will neutralise them.

I'll go for someone like Visconti or Tangert to win from a break.

 

[Lexman]

nothing will happen, Movistar will keep tempo for Valverde to win, Nibali loses 10 seconds to GC favourites

 

[Ataraxus]

Kruijswijk will crush the weak again tomorrow, but nobody from the big 4 will show weakness (I'm not sure about Nibali though.)
Valverdes' MTT gave strong evidence that he still can climb very well and the Corvara stage was simply a hard day off.
Chaves should be more than fine. Nibalis' MTT time (slower than Scarponi ) worries me, but the stage is not very hard and comes after a rest day so a climb like Fai di Paganella shouldn't create problems for him.
I expect sprint between Valverde and Chaves with the S.K. and Nibali just a handful of seconds away.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km

While everyone is taking down Nibalis shape we shouldnt forget that he was by far the third strongest rider in the queen stage and gained about 2 minutes on everyone besides Kruijswijk and Chaves. I don't think he will suddenly climb better than everyone else but I at least don't think that he will easily drop and be weaker than Valverde.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km

While everyone is taking down Nibalis shape we shouldnt forget that he was by far the third strongest rider in the queen stage and gained about 2 minutes on everyone besides Kruijswijk and Chaves. I don't think he will suddenly climb better than everyone else but I at least don't think that he will easily drop and be weaker than Valverde.

You are right but this is nothing like the queen stage.
This is more like Roccaraso stage.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km

While everyone is taking down Nibalis shape we shouldnt forget that he was by far the third strongest rider in the queen stage and gained about 2 minutes on everyone besides Kruijswijk and Chaves. I don't think he will suddenly climb better than everyone else but I at least don't think that he will easily drop and be weaker than Valverde.

You are right but this is nothing like the queen stage.
This is more like Roccaraso stage.

But the Nibali from the Roccaraso stage, would have been in the Valverde group on the Corvara stage. That means he progressed during the Giro. I think the Siusi MTT was just an off day.

I can't see the big 4 changing after tomorrow. And i don't think he podium will be different at the end of the Giro.

 

[staubsauger]

Nibali even suffered at the start of the descent, though. Which is his parade discipline actually. Followed up by a horrible mtt not only for the mechanical. That actually looked like his shape decreased compared to Friday and Thursday which looked decent. He's not exactly the person to act in this shape. Never mind his strong team. He needs to control and take advantage if Chavez (or Kruijswijk) shows some weaknesses. But I don't know if he really wants to attack Kruijswijk now already, with the risk that it costs him the podium if he fails with it.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Don't worry Nibali will be back shining new
he doesn't want to disappoint Scarponi after all his work
Nibali is no quitter.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km

While everyone is taking down Nibalis shape we shouldnt forget that he was by far the third strongest rider in the queen stage and gained about 2 minutes on everyone besides Kruijswijk and Chaves. I don't think he will suddenly climb better than everyone else but I at least don't think that he will easily drop and be weaker than Valverde.

You are right but this is nothing like the queen stage.
This is more like Roccaraso stage.

But the Nibali from the Roccaraso stage, would have been in the Valverde group on the Corvara stage. That means he progressed during the Giro. I think the Siusi MTT was just an off day.

I can't see the big 4 changing after tomorrow. And i don't think he podium will be different at the end of the Giro.

The Rocaraso example had two aims: 1- Tomorrow to expect gaps and performances similar to that stage and 2- to show invalidity in comparisons with the Corvara stage....which you made
By the same approach one can say that Valverde had an off day in Corvara (more or less expected from Piti in such and atrocious stage) and showed his true climbing potential in the MTT.
I think Nibali had an off day in the MTT (same as you) and I know for sure Valverde didn't have a good day in Corvara (shown by his excellent TT performance the next day).
Now if Nibali has recovered from his supposed bad day in the MTT one should expect results and gaps similar to Rocaraso, not the Corvara stage IMO (especially wrt Valverde which hadn't a good day in Corvara).

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km

While everyone is taking down Nibalis shape we shouldnt forget that he was by far the third strongest rider in the queen stage and gained about 2 minutes on everyone besides Kruijswijk and Chaves. I don't think he will suddenly climb better than everyone else but I at least don't think that he will easily drop and be weaker than Valverde.

You are right but this is nothing like the queen stage.
This is more like Roccaraso stage.

This is maybe more like the Roccaraso stage but IMO that doesnt change anything. The Nibali of the Corvara stage also would have been better in Roccaraso, and the Nibali of the first week would have lost a lot of time on the Corvara stage. I doubt the general difficulty of the stage makes such a difference for the performance. Nibali isnt Quintana who is at his best in stages with 5 passes over 2000 meters, Nibali is rather the kind of rider who usually is good on hilly terrain as well, otherwise he probably wouldnt have won Lombardia.
Moreover you write this as if the stage wouldnt be difficult. Believe me, if this stage would be ridden in the tdf and would have tdf categorizations many people would talk very differently about tomorrow.

Edit: And about the discussion how Nibali's shape will be in the last week, I think his shape will be like in the tour last year. Back then he also was still pretty bad on the penultimate weekend although he at least already felt strong enough to attack (just like in the giro this year) and then in the last week on the last two mountain stages he was the 3rd strongest climber almost on the level of Froome.
Ofc we don't know if the development will be the same this year but if it is it wont be that easy for Kruijswijk.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think every stage should aim at having +150 km. Its kinda depressing to see such a short stage...