2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 200km

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 20

I don't think any of the GC teams is interested in a fast pace. Therefore it will either be a breakaway win of some no name or Kittel wins it in a reduced bunch sprint.

If the bunch is going to be reduced, Kittel will certainly not be there... La Ronca to attack at the last climb, and then who knows.

There's not a single sprinter in the peleton that could drop Kittel on hills in his current shape.

Of course, then Kittel will loose some weight which will make him a great climber and he will win the tour.
Seriously I'd like to be proven wrong but I don't think Kittel has any chance to win tomorrow. Either the peloton will go fast and he will drop or the peloton will be so slow that Kittel can stay but the attackers would get a too big advantage.

Wellens ftw.

 

[classicomano]

If Kittel survives tomorrow, hes got a serious shot at the overall.

 

[Forever The Best]

About stages 2-3
Stage 2:Nothing.Kittel won way too easy.
Stage 3:Cunego losing 6 mins.He will go for stage wins then.Good choice.
Roglic losing more than 7 and a half minutes.
Hopefully he goes to the breakaways now.And then pull a Sella in the Dolomites and have an epic raceCool
And very sad for Peraud.
And meh to the sprint.Kittel won way too easy again.He simply crushed them.

Tomorrow Kittel won't win though.Sure of that.
Also stage 2 could have been better.The laps in Nijmegen was pointless.Berg en Dal should have been closer to the finish.Also they could have used Oude Holleweg but it is narrow.

 

[BigMac]

Modolo or Nizzolo.

Though maybe Formolo with an attack.

 

[CTQ]

photos of these ramps here

https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/729708247213551617

i don't think Kittel will win

 

[Eshnar]

What is all this Kittel talk, people ?
Did anybody even read my stage analysis?

 

[Miburo]

Re:

What is all this Kittel talk, people ?
Did anybody even read my stage analysis?

Don't jinx it man, i did that last year with gilbert.

But yea i don't see even a slim chance that kittel will hang on especially cause some teams have an interest in the jersey.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

How the hell is Kittel gonna survive this?

Come on astana, go full *** like last year

Kittel can get a stage like Romandie one, but no harder, he dont need go full Astana gas to be dropped.
I dont want that becouse I want Hesjedal survives well these first days...In some days he will be one of the strongest.

We will see some action from the main teams, but except some team or GC rider is weak, it is difficult something happens in GC except Dumoulin getting pink again.

 

[Brullnux]

This stage is harder than the Romandie stage, with a better peloton, with many Italians who really want to win, with the Rosa at stake. Kittel should have no chance. This is the Giro, not the tour after all. Colbrelli looked amazing at Amstel. With that form he has this, unless there is a late solo.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

What is all this Kittel talk, people ?
Did anybody even read my stage analysis?

Actually, Kittel is the bookmakers odds-on-favourite since its an extremely difficult stage to predict an outright winner when Sagan isn't here. However, he is the most likely winner because if he survives, he wins, end of. The probability of a passive race is not super big, but if its indeed a passive affair, Kittel got it. He is in monster shape and actually showed some decent climbing-ability in Romandie.

I got Kittel at 8, so I basically hope for a bad race. Its like betting on your favourite team to lose, win-win.

 

[hfer07]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 20

Tom Dumoulin back in Maglia Rosa.

either Greipel or Demare FTW

 

[rghysens]

Re:

Im going with Kittel here and a passive stage

Even on a passive stage someone will attack hard enough on that last climb to drop Kittel. 1.8km @ 7.7% with 8.5km to go is out of Kittels league. This stage has nothing to do with that rolling half stage he won in Romandie or the "climb" to Hatta dam.

 

[Orbit501]

Jungels might be keen to keep the jersey for the team.

Moser and Brandle should by rights be interested here.

I'd be happy with an heroic breakaway stay away first Italian win via Boem.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Démare comes back after the climb. No questions asked.

Good "draft" pick

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Finally! Away from the pointless grand depart in the Netherlands - how boring was that?!
This stage could provide some entertainment. Thinking Ulissi or Colbrelli for the win, if raced properly!

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

What is all this Kittel talk, people ?
Did anybody even read my stage analysis?

Actually, Kittel is the bookmakers odds-on-favourite since its an extremely difficult stage to predict an outright winner when Sagan isn't here. However, he is the most likely winner because if he survives, he wins, end of. The probability of a passive race is not super big, but if its indeed a passive affair, Kittel got it. He is in monster shape and actually showed some decent climbing-ability in Romandie.

I got Kittel at 8, so I basically hope for a bad race. Its like betting on your favourite team to lose, win-win.

Wouldn't be quite so sure. In Romandie he survived and just edged out Bonifazio, despite a better lead out, as he was so tired. If Kittel survives I expect one of Nizzolo, Modolo, Demare, Greipel or Viviani to also survive. All of them are as quick or quicker than Bonifazio. Also worth mentioning 109 riders finished in the first group of a 100k reduced stage, without the only genuine climb. The rest was rolling. But still, he was extremely tired and got almost beaten. With 200km, more hills and harder hills, even if Kittel by some miracle gets to the end he may not have the legs to win it.

Even in Stage 5, he may be tired by the end, especially with the uphill drag that suits Ewan perfectly.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Finally! Away from the pointless grand depart in the Netherlands - how boring was that?!
This stage could provide some entertainment. Thinking Ulissi or Colbrelli for the win, if raced properly!

Plus, it forced today to be a rest day after just 3 stages.

 

[Miburo]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 20

Tom Dumoulin back in Maglia Rosa.

either Greipel or Demare FTW

Greipel been *** all year, he needs his best shape for this and even then...

 

[Wallenquist]

I think late attack will stick, reduced peleton but be able to chase them back after the final climb and several teams will be happy to let the maglia rosa to one of the non race favorites for few days. Going for Jungels, Moser or Kangert for the win.

 

[Glocknerkoenig]

Re: Re:

Démare comes back after the climb. No questions asked.

Good "draft" pick

aww snap.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Im going with Kittel here and a passive stage

Even on a passive stage someone will attack hard enough on that last climb to drop Kittel. 1.8km @ 7.7% with 8.5km to go is out of Kittels league. This stage has nothing to do with that rolling half stage he won in Romandie or the "climb" to Hatta dam.

What do you mean by 'drop'? If any rider positions themselves well enough going into the climb, they could be absolutely awful on it, but would still be within touching distance of the end of the peloton after just 1.8km.

Very slim chance he gets dropped; maybe he'll end up at the back of the peloton - too far back to contest the stage win. But he's not going to get completely dropped in 1.8km if he positions himself half decently coming into the climb.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Speaking about potential from Cannondale. What about Simon Clarke, Kirby's favourite. He certainly has also potential to do something in the finale.

I guess you didn't get the memo: Clarke's now a

 

[Brullnux]

This stage should be maximum 40/50 riders at the finish, hopefully less. I say crazy astana and then a solo attack. Perfect stage for Luisle. Shame he isn't here.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

What is all this Kittel talk, people ?
Did anybody even read my stage analysis?

Actually, Kittel is the bookmakers odds-on-favourite since its an extremely difficult stage to predict an outright winner when Sagan isn't here. However, he is the most likely winner because if he survives, he wins, end of. The probability of a passive race is not super big, but if its indeed a passive affair, Kittel got it. He is in monster shape and actually showed some decent climbing-ability in Romandie.

I got Kittel at 8, so I basically hope for a bad race. Its like betting on your favourite team to lose, win-win.

Wouldn't be quite so sure. In Romandie he survived and just edged out Bonifazio, despite a better lead out, as he was so tired. If Kittel survives I expect one of Nizzolo, Modolo, Demare, Greipel or Viviani to also survive. All of them are as quick or quicker than Bonifazio. Also worth mentioning 109 riders finished in the first group of a 100k reduced stage, without the only genuine climb. The rest was rolling. But still, he was extremely tired and got almost beaten. With 200km, more hills and harder hills, even if Kittel by some miracle gets to the end he may not have the legs to win it.

Even in Stage 5, he may be tired by the end, especially with the uphill drag that suits Ewan perfectly.

You are right, its obviously not a given after such a stage, bad wording I guess. But it's close to, I have never, ever seen Kittel this dominant and he isn't sprinting against no scrubs. But good point.

 

[search]

Re: Re:

What is all this Kittel talk, people ?
Did anybody even read my stage analysis?

Actually, Kittel is the bookmakers odds-on-favourite since its an extremely difficult stage to predict an outright winner when Sagan isn't here.

well, he is traded at ~12-1 which suggests that he has an ~7.5% chance to win - there's no one with a higher winning probability listed at the bookies, but that's still quite far away from "odds-on"