2016 Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

[PremierAndrew]

Why is landa so overhyped ffs

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Not in a sprint no. But Poels in a solo, with others looking at eachother for just a tad too long, that could happen. Most of his wins are solo wins on a hilly course.

Yeah, but Poels dislikes cold weather, he's not the guy that I'd pick to do well in a LBL with cold, nasty weather.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Why is landa so overhyped ffs

Because he's won two hilly races in the last fortnight, is reaching close to peak form now in time for the Giro, and is a very aggressive rider who won't just sit in the bunch waiting for the final climb.

If we're going to get an exciting LBL, then we will need someone like him or Nibali to animate it. The geniuses at Orica, Katusha and Etixx will likely ride a defensive race, resulting in the inevitable Valverde win.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

Moreover Landa won todays stage on a short steep climb, which actually doesnt really suit him that well but it could be a good indicator for a ardennes classic because there you also rather have to be explosive.

Nevertheless lets not forget about Kwiatkowski. It's still possible that AGR was only a bad day and if thats the case he should still be Sky's leader.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

Moreover Landa won todays stage on a short steep climb, which actually doesnt really suit him that well but it could be a good indicator for a ardennes classic because there you also rather have to be explosive.

Nevertheless lets not forget about Kwiatkowski. It's still possible that AGR was only a bad day and if thats the case he should still be Sky's leader.

Yep, Kwiatkowski should still be leader for sure. But I just can't see how he can beat Valverde in a straight fight in the final few kilometres.

Sky need to blow the race apart and make it chaotic, send Froome and Landa on crazy long range attacks. Landa is the perfect choice to sacrifice himself and blow the race apart. He's on decent form, he loves to attack, he's dangerous enough to be taekn seriously, and now Sky have a free space in their team.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

Moreover Landa won todays stage on a short steep climb, which actually doesnt really suit him that well but it could be a good indicator for a ardennes classic because there you also rather have to be explosive.

Nevertheless lets not forget about Kwiatkowski. It's still possible that AGR was only a bad day and if thats the case he should still be Sky's leader.

Yep, Kwiatkowski should still be leader for sure. But I just can't see how he can beat Valverde in a straight fight in the final few kilometres.

Sky need to blow the race apart and make it chaotic, send Froome and Landa on crazy long range attacks. Landa is the perfect choice to sacrifice himself and blow the race apart. He's on decent form, he loves to attack, he's dangerous enough to be taekn seriously, and now Sky have a free space in their team.

Kwiat vs. Valverde in a sprint might be close though

 

[DFA123]

Re: Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

Moreover Landa won todays stage on a short steep climb, which actually doesnt really suit him that well but it could be a good indicator for a ardennes classic because there you also rather have to be explosive.

Nevertheless lets not forget about Kwiatkowski. It's still possible that AGR was only a bad day and if thats the case he should still be Sky's leader.

Yep, Kwiatkowski should still be leader for sure. But I just can't see how he can beat Valverde in a straight fight in the final few kilometres.

Sky need to blow the race apart and make it chaotic, send Froome and Landa on crazy long range attacks. Landa is the perfect choice to sacrifice himself and blow the race apart. He's on decent form, he loves to attack, he's dangerous enough to be taekn seriously, and now Sky have a free space in their team.

Kwiat vs. Valverde in a sprint might be close though

True, but I don't think it would get that far, especially with Gerrans/Matthews also there. Valverde made that mistake a couple of years ago. Last year he was pretty aggressive, closing down Moreno by himself and basically controlling the finish - same as he has done in the last two FWs.

If Valverde rides fairly even paced, just closing down a couple of attacks when required, I think he'll drop Kwiat.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

The geniuses at Orica, Katusha and Etixx will likely ride a defensive race, resulting in the inevitable Valverde win.

Dan Martin won once and should have won a second time in the last three years by waiting for the final short climb. Why on earth would it be in his interests to change tactic?

Their strategy will likely be as follows, assuming that race isn't made chaotic by some other team: Martin will go at the bottom of the final climb, as usual. Valverde and others will either catch him or they won't. But Etixx will plan to have Alaphillipe glued to Valverde's wheel, giving them another shot if Martin does get pulled back. Of course, the race may well be made chaotic by somebody else, but Etixx are completely right to think that they have a big chance of winning in a "standard" race.

Similarly, Orica and Gerrans. Gerrans isn't going to fare better in a wild, attacking race. Far from it. He is Orica's best hope and his best hope is to come to the end still with Valverde, Alaphillipe and co and win the sprint. Which he has a more than reasonable chance of doing if that situation arises.

People are confusing "what would be fun to watch" with "what would be a good idea from a team's perspective". There are lots of teams whose best chances do involve making things chaotic and breaking with the expected script. Movistar, Etixx and Orica are not among them. They are the favourites teams and will probably lean towards favourites strategies, for entirely sensible reasons.

 

[happytramp]

Re: Re:

The geniuses at Orica, Katusha and Etixx will likely ride a defensive race, resulting in the inevitable Valverde win.

Dan Martin won once and should have won a second time in the last three years by waiting for the final short climb. Why on earth would it be in his interests to change tactic?

Dan got the jump on Valverde the last two times they arrived at the bottom of the climb together. The two Ettix guys have a real chance here but I think the way Valverde is going he'll be extremely hard to beat.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The geniuses at Orica, Katusha and Etixx will likely ride a defensive race, resulting in the inevitable Valverde win.

Dan Martin won once and should have won a second time in the last three years by waiting for the final short climb. Why on earth would it be in his interests to change tactic?

Their strategy will likely be as follows, assuming that race isn't made chaotic by some other team: Martin will go at the bottom of the final climb, as usual. Valverde and others will either catch him or they won't. But Etixx will plan to have Alaphillipe glued to Valverde's wheel, giving them another shot if Martin does get pulled back. Of course, the race may well be made chaotic by somebody else, but Etixx are completely right to think that they have a big chance of winning in a "standard" race.

Similarly, Orica and Gerrans. Gerrans isn't going to fare better in a wild, attacking race. Far from it. He is Orica's best hope and his best hope is to come to the end still with Valverde, Alaphillipe and co and win the sprint. Which he has a more than reasonable chance of doing if that situation arises.

People are confusing "what would be fun to watch" with "what would be a good idea from a team's perspective". There are lots of teams whose best chances do involve making things chaotic and breaking with the expected script. Movistar, Etixx and Orica are not among them. They are the favourites teams and will probably lean towards favourites strategies, for entirely sensible reasons.

The difference is Valverde's form at the moment and last season. Martin isn't going to win unless Valverde has been put into some kind of difficulty. Why not send one of Martin / Alaphilippe up the road a bit earlier and try to put Valverde's team into the red - get him isolated.

Etixx really need to win this to save their classics season from being a bit of a disaster. It's pretty obvious that neither Martin nor Alaphilippe are going to beat Valverde going head to head on the final climb, unless the race has been hard/crazy enough to allow tactics to play their part.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

Moreover Landa won todays stage on a short steep climb, which actually doesnt really suit him that well but it could be a good indicator for a ardennes classic because there you also rather have to be explosive.

Nevertheless lets not forget about Kwiatkowski. It's still possible that AGR was only a bad day and if thats the case he should still be Sky's leader.

Yep, Kwiatkowski should still be leader for sure. But I just can't see how he can beat Valverde in a straight fight in the final few kilometres.

Sky need to blow the race apart and make it chaotic, send Froome and Landa on crazy long range attacks. Landa is the perfect choice to sacrifice himself and blow the race apart. He's on decent form, he loves to attack, he's dangerous enough to be taekn seriously, and now Sky have a free space in their team.

Is Froome doing LBL?

 

[Breh]

Valverde has an incredibly strong team aswell.

 

[sir fly]

After today's Fleche, only one name stands out.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

The geniuses at Orica, Katusha and Etixx will likely ride a defensive race, resulting in the inevitable Valverde win.

Dan Martin won once and should have won a second time in the last three years by waiting for the final short climb. Why on earth would it be in his interests to change tactic?

Their strategy will likely be as follows, assuming that race isn't made chaotic by some other team: Martin will go at the bottom of the final climb, as usual. Valverde and others will either catch him or they won't. But Etixx will plan to have Alaphillipe glued to Valverde's wheel, giving them another shot if Martin does get pulled back. Of course, the race may well be made chaotic by somebody else, but Etixx are completely right to think that they have a big chance of winning in a "standard" race.

Similarly, Orica and Gerrans. Gerrans isn't going to fare better in a wild, attacking race. Far from it. He is Orica's best hope and his best hope is to come to the end still with Valverde, Alaphillipe and co and win the sprint. Which he has a more than reasonable chance of doing if that situation arises.

People are confusing "what would be fun to watch" with "what would be a good idea from a team's perspective". There are lots of teams whose best chances do involve making things chaotic and breaking with the expected script. Movistar, Etixx and Orica are not among them. They are the favourites teams and will probably lean towards favourites strategies, for entirely sensible reasons.

Spot on analysis.

Ettix are in a very good position for this race. FW shows Martin and Alaphillipe have great form and both riders have done well at LBL in the past. Jointly, their chances are probably the same as Valverde's.

Gerrans a distant fourth.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

Moreover Landa won todays stage on a short steep climb, which actually doesnt really suit him that well but it could be a good indicator for a ardennes classic because there you also rather have to be explosive.

Nevertheless lets not forget about Kwiatkowski. It's still possible that AGR was only a bad day and if thats the case he should still be Sky's leader.

Yep, Kwiatkowski should still be leader for sure. But I just can't see how he can beat Valverde in a straight fight in the final few kilometres.

Sky need to blow the race apart and make it chaotic, send Froome and Landa on crazy long range attacks. Landa is the perfect choice to sacrifice himself and blow the race apart. He's on decent form, he loves to attack, he's dangerous enough to be taekn seriously, and now Sky have a free space in their team.

Is Froome doing LBL?

Depens what you mean by 'doing LBL' He's on the provisional startlist.

 

[Red Rick]

Froome is on that list every year, and almost never actually rides

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The geniuses at Orica, Katusha and Etixx will likely ride a defensive race, resulting in the inevitable Valverde win.

Dan Martin won once and should have won a second time in the last three years by waiting for the final short climb. Why on earth would it be in his interests to change tactic?

Their strategy will likely be as follows, assuming that race isn't made chaotic by some other team: Martin will go at the bottom of the final climb, as usual. Valverde and others will either catch him or they won't. But Etixx will plan to have Alaphillipe glued to Valverde's wheel, giving them another shot if Martin does get pulled back. Of course, the race may well be made chaotic by somebody else, but Etixx are completely right to think that they have a big chance of winning in a "standard" race.

Similarly, Orica and Gerrans. Gerrans isn't going to fare better in a wild, attacking race. Far from it. He is Orica's best hope and his best hope is to come to the end still with Valverde, Alaphillipe and co and win the sprint. Which he has a more than reasonable chance of doing if that situation arises.

People are confusing "what would be fun to watch" with "what would be a good idea from a team's perspective". There are lots of teams whose best chances do involve making things chaotic and breaking with the expected script. Movistar, Etixx and Orica are not among them. They are the favourites teams and will probably lean towards favourites strategies, for entirely sensible reasons.

Spot on analysis.

Ettix are in a very good position for this race. FW shows Martin and Alaphillipe have great form and both riders have done well at LBL in the past. Jointly, their chances are probably the same as Valverde's.

Gerrans a distant fourth.

Gerrans has more chance of winning than both Martin and Alaphilippe. If it's a negative race where everyone waits too long, he has a good chance of taking it in a sprint. Martin and Alaphilippe jointly don't have a weapon that can beat Valverde on current form.

 

[SeriousSam]

I think a Martin solo win or a strong Martin attack closed down with some difficulty by Valverde with Alaphilippe glued to his wheel are more likely scenarios than a cruise to the finish line which is what Gerrans needs to be the favourite in the sprint.

 

[happytramp]

Re: Re:

Gerrans has more chance of winning than both Martin and Alaphilippe.

Why? Gerrans won't get up the hill as fast as either of them. The only reason he one in 2014 was because Martin somehow managed to fall off his bike on the last corner.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Gerrans has more chance of winning than both Martin and Alaphilippe.

Why? Gerrans won't get up the hill as fast as either of them. The only reason he one in 2014 was because Martin somehow managed to fall off his bike on the last corner.

I explained why. I can envisage a scenario where Gerrans wins. If the last climb is slow and tactical with no-one wanting to lead, he could hang in there and win a sprint.

I can't see a situation where Martin wins. Valverde has a similar skillset to Martin, but is slightly better at all of them. Same as Alaphilippe. He is a stronger climber, he can match their attacks and he can outsprint them. The one exception would be if it is a very hard race and everyone has weak legs; then it's whoever has something left - but, given recent history of the race - that's pretty unlikely.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

The geniuses at Orica, Katusha and Etixx will likely ride a defensive race, resulting in the inevitable Valverde win.

Dan Martin won once and should have won a second time in the last three years by waiting for the final short climb. Why on earth would it be in his interests to change tactic?

Their strategy will likely be as follows, assuming that race isn't made chaotic by some other team: Martin will go at the bottom of the final climb, as usual. Valverde and others will either catch him or they won't. But Etixx will plan to have Alaphillipe glued to Valverde's wheel, giving them another shot if Martin does get pulled back. Of course, the race may well be made chaotic by somebody else, but Etixx are completely right to think that they have a big chance of winning in a "standard" race.

Similarly, Orica and Gerrans. Gerrans isn't going to fare better in a wild, attacking race. Far from it. He is Orica's best hope and his best hope is to come to the end still with Valverde, Alaphillipe and co and win the sprint. Which he has a more than reasonable chance of doing if that situation arises.

People are confusing "what would be fun to watch" with "what would be a good idea from a team's perspective". There are lots of teams whose best chances do involve making things chaotic and breaking with the expected script. Movistar, Etixx and Orica are not among them. They are the favourites teams and will probably lean towards favourites strategies, for entirely sensible reasons.

Spot on analysis.

Ettix are in a very good position for this race. FW shows Martin and Alaphillipe have great form and both riders have done well at LBL in the past. Jointly, their chances are probably the same as Valverde's.

Gerrans a distant fourth.

I don't think Gerrans stands much of a chance. He's not near his 2014 form, and Valverde made that mistake to pull him to the finishing straight once, he's not going to do that again. Movistar is way stronger this year and I think they'll ride harder on the climbs to tire and eliminate Gerrans and that sort of riders. Ettix has a fair chance, although it's going to be very hard to surprise Valverde, who knows now after Fleche where the danger is. They could try similar tactics like today, but I think the outcome will be the same as today. They need to tire Valverde already on St.Nicholas and at that new cobbled climb, and than 1-2 in the finale

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

The geniuses at Orica, Katusha and Etixx will likely ride a defensive race, resulting in the inevitable Valverde win.

Dan Martin won once and should have won a second time in the last three years by waiting for the final short climb. Why on earth would it be in his interests to change tactic?

Their strategy will likely be as follows, assuming that race isn't made chaotic by some other team: Martin will go at the bottom of the final climb, as usual. Valverde and others will either catch him or they won't. But Etixx will plan to have Alaphillipe glued to Valverde's wheel, giving them another shot if Martin does get pulled back. Of course, the race may well be made chaotic by somebody else, but Etixx are completely right to think that they have a big chance of winning in a "standard" race.

Similarly, Orica and Gerrans. Gerrans isn't going to fare better in a wild, attacking race. Far from it. He is Orica's best hope and his best hope is to come to the end still with Valverde, Alaphillipe and co and win the sprint. Which he has a more than reasonable chance of doing if that situation arises.

People are confusing "what would be fun to watch" with "what would be a good idea from a team's perspective". There are lots of teams whose best chances do involve making things chaotic and breaking with the expected script. Movistar, Etixx and Orica are not among them. They are the favourites teams and will probably lean towards favourites strategies, for entirely sensible reasons.

Spot on analysis.

Ettix are in a very good position for this race. FW shows Martin and Alaphillipe have great form and both riders have done well at LBL in the past. Jointly, their chances are probably the same as Valverde's.

Gerrans a distant fourth.

Gerrans has more chance of winning than both Martin and Alaphilippe. If it's a negative race where everyone waits too long, he has a good chance of taking it in a sprint. Martin and Alaphilippe jointly don't have a weapon that can beat Valverde on current form.

Valverde is rightly the favourite. However, Valverde has been in a late selection many times over the last seven years and won once. The finale at LBL is unpredictable and Valverde can be outsmarted or put in a difficult tactical situation.

Take a completely "standard" finish to a "quiet" edition, where everyone acts exactly as the script says they will act. Some outsider goes at the bottom of the hill, Martin goes after him and overtakes him. At this point Valverde has Alaphillipe and Gerrans glued to him. He may be the strongest, but Martin is probably the second strongest and it's going to be hard to pull him back if Valverde doesn't do it himself. Certainly Alaphillipe and Gerrans, for different reasons, aren't going to help. But if Valverde does it himself, he gives Gerrans and Alaphillipe the chance to suck his wheel right up to the sprint. Valverde might be the single likeliest winner in that situation, but all four of the named riders plus maybe a couple of others have a substantial chance of winning from there.

There are tactical decisions Valverde can take to circumvent these problems, but they each create new ones. If he sticks super vigilantly to Martin's wheel, knowing that he's the most dangerous opponent before the sprint and preventing him from getting a gap, then someone else will go. If it's Alaphillipe, for example, Valverde will start from behind Martin, who will effectively just be a road block and again, Gerrans and the rest if they've any sense will look to him to chase. There are solutions again to that problem, but they in turn create other problems.

Of course Valverde is the most likely individual rider to win, but he is not a dead cert and all of Martin, Alaphillipe and Gerrans at least can reasonably fancy their chances of winning a "by the book" edition against him. Gerrans actually seems to be the least likely to win, based on form.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

You'd never think from this discussion that Martin had Valverde beat on the last bump twice in the last three years or that Gerrans beat him in the sprint two years ago. Valverde has been the deserved favourite in a race far more often than he's won.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Valverde is rightly the favourite. However, Valverde has been in a late selection many times over the last seven years and won once. The finale at LBL is unpredictable and Valverde can be outsmarted or put in a difficult tactical situation.

Take a completely "standard" finish to a "quiet" edition, where everyone acts exactly as the script says they will act. Some outsider goes at the bottom of the hill, Martin goes after him and overtakes him. At this point Valverde has Alaphillipe and Gerrans glued to him. He may be the strongest, but Martin is probably the second strongest and it's going to be hard to pull him back if Valverde doesn't do it himself. Certainly Alaphillipe and Gerrans, for different reasons, aren't going to help. But if Valverde does it himself, he gives Gerrans and Alaphillipe the chance to suck his wheel right up to the sprint. Valverde might be the single likeliest winner in that situation, but all four of the named riders plus maybe a couple of others have a substantial chance of winning from there.

There are tactical decisions Valverde can take to circumvent these problems, but they each create new ones. If he sticks super vigilantly to Martin's wheel, knowing that he's the most dangerous opponent before the sprint and preventing him from getting a gap, then someone else will go. If it's Alaphillipe, for example, Valverde will start from behind Martin, who will effectively just be a road block and again, Gerrans and the rest if they've any sense will look to him to chase. There are solutions again to that problem, but they in turn create other problems.

Of course Valverde is the most likely individual rider to win, but he is not a dead cert and all of Martin, Alaphillipe and Gerrans at least can reasonably fancy their chances of winning a "by the book" edition against him.

I think Valverde is a very different rider now than a few years ago. He's won his last three Ardennes races, and he won them all by taking full responsibility himself: going hard from the bottom of the climb, closing attacks down himself and then releasing an untouchable attack or sprint to take the win.

He's no longer the rider that we saw many times in the past, where he rides too defensively and waits for others to close attacks. He knows he's the strongest climber and the strongest puncheur, so he can win by either riding it hard or by riding it explosively. He doesn't need anyone to close riders down for him anymore.

He's found the winning formula, it's up to the other teams to do something differently to put him off his stride.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

If your theory is simply that Valverde is now superman and is capable of single handedly chasing down all late attacks, including those from the second and third strongest puncheurs in the world and then still winning the sprint, then this whole tactical discussion is essentially purposeless.

Neither of the two guys who finished the Mur on the same time as him are going to go into the race thinking that they have to do something crazily unorthodox and attacking to beat him. Particularly as they are teammates and one of them had Valverde beaten twice in the last three years on this finale. Gerrans, if he has the form to be competitive at all, also isn't going to ever start LBL thinking that he has to do something crazily unorthodox or attacking to win.Not just because he won two years by doing Valverde in a sprint, but more importantly because he's Simon Gerrans and doing so would be a complete betrayal of his core cycling philosophy.

Fleche is a much more straightforward race than LBL. Nine times out of ten the strongest wins. That's just not true of LBL. Instead one of the five or so strongest wins, with the winner determined as much by tactical smarts as raw strength.

Now if we are talking about other teams, ones that don't have Martin and Alaphillipe or an in form Gerrans or an in form Purito, yes they really should be thinking about disrupting the usual script. But the top favourites teams will ride like top favourites teams and they will do so because they aren't stupid.