2016 Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

[DFA123]

Re:

If your theory is simply that Valverde is now superman and is capable of single handedly chasing down all late attacks, including those from the second and third strongest puncheurs in the world and then still winning the sprint, then this whole tactical discussion is essentially purposeless.

That's not my theory. My theory is that unless Valverde has been put into some kind of difficulty inthe race, then he is too good for Alaphilippe and Martin. They are similar kind of riders, but Valverde is just better. He beat the one-two from Moreno and Rodriquez quite comfortably last year and, on current form, I don't see that Martin or Alaphilippe have the skills to beat him. He chased down their attacks today comfortably enough - obviously a different race and climb, but it hints at the gulf in class.

Of course he can be beaten by tactics, but my point is that they have to happen before the last kilometre. Within the last kilometre, he's close to untouchable on current form, imo.

 

[Mr.White]

Well you had that script today, Purito went just after the steepest point of the Mur, Valverde closed. Martin went after him, Valverde closed that too. Alaphilippe rode glued to Valverde's wheel, hoping to outsprint him and we all saw what happened. That will be the case, in my opinion, in the Liege too if they wait for the final drag. They need to attack earlier, they need to attack hard, and they need to force Valverde to respond, which means they have to eliminate his team already at St.Nicolas

 

[hrotha]

Re: Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

Moreover Landa won todays stage on a short steep climb, which actually doesnt really suit him that well but it could be a good indicator for a ardennes classic because there you also rather have to be explosive

Landa is a pretty good puncheur, actually. See this or this.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

That's not my theory. My theory is that unless Valverde has been put into some kind of difficulty inthe race, then he is too good for Alaphilippe and Martin.

Cycling is not a sport where the strongest always wins, with the partial exception of Fleche Wallone and the wider exception of time trials. There is no such thing as too good to be beaten in a race like LBL and in particular no such thing as too good to be beaten when your two strongest rivals are teammates and one of them has already done you twice in three years on the same finish.

And even were you right that he's too strong for them to beat, which to be blunt you are not, neither they nor their team would accept your point of view in a million years.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Well you had that script today, Purito went just after the steepest point of the Mur, Valverde closed. Martin went after him, Valverde closed that too. Alaphilippe rode glued to Valverde's wheel, hoping to outsprint him and we all saw what happened. That will be the case, in my opinion, in the Liege too if they wait for the final drag. They need to attack earlier, they need to attack hard, and they need to force Valverde to respond, which means they have to eliminate his team already at St.Nicolas

If only Martin had gone a tiny bit slower and Alaphilippe had launched before Bala (at least enough to get to the side of him when he would naturally launch) whilst Martin would continue ahead along the barriers.

If done like that, where it is a 'cleanish' sprint and the Etixx boys don't change their line, but clearly box Piti in, could they risk any sanction? Or would Valverde have to break to get behind Ala and then up to speed again to go the other way around him (or alternatively muscle Ala out of his way, though I guess he could risk a sanction then)?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

That's not my theory. My theory is that unless Valverde has been put into some kind of difficulty inthe race, then he is too good for Alaphilippe and Martin.

Cycling is not a sport where the strongest always wins, with the partial exception of Fleche Wallone and the wider exception of time trials. There is no such thing as too good to be beaten in a race like LBL and in particular no such thing as too good to be beaten when your two strongest rivals are teammates and one of them has already done you twice in three years on the same finish.

And even were you right that he's too strong for them to beat, which to be blunt you are not, neither they nor their team would accept your point of view in a million years.

Well Valverde's won his last three Ardennes races, and has been pretty much untouchable in all of them. He easily dealt with their dual attack today. Perhaps it might be worth his rivals trying a different tactic.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

Well you had that script today

Fleche is not LBL. On the Mur tactics and teamwork count for less than sheer strength relative to the balance in LBL. That's why Valverde could beat Martin into second on the Mur in 2014 and then both get done over by Martin in the finale of LBL and outsprinted by Gerrans after Martin fell off.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Well you had that script today

Fleche is not LBL. On the Mur tactics and teamwork count for less than sheer strength relative to the balance in LBL. That's why Valverde could beat Martin into second on the Mur in 2014 and then both get done over by Martin in the finale of LBL and outsprinted by Gerrans after Martin fell off.

What makes you think that Martin and Alaphilippe will work well together in the last km anyway? Which one of them is going to sacrifice the shot at winning the biggest race of their respective seasons?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

The biggest problem with trying to have a tactical discussion here is that there are two constant influences on many people's opinions that get in the way: (1) An emotional attachment to the idea that attacking more and earlier is better, even when discussing riders who don't actually have to do that. (2) A tendency to overrate the favourite and assume a near invincibility on the part of the strongest.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The biggest problem with trying to have a tactical discussion here is that there are two constant influences on many people's opinions that get in the way: (1) An emotional attachment to the idea that attacking more and earlier is better, even when discussing riders who don't actually have to do that. (2) A tendency to overrate the favourite and assume a near invincibility on the part of the strongest.

(3) Looking at results from two-three years ago and giving them far too much value in relation to current form.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

What makes you think that Martin and Alaphilippe will work well together in the last km anyway? Which one of them is going to sacrifice the shot at winning the biggest race of their respective seasons?

If a "by the book" group arrives at the final km together, their interests are aligned.

Martin always attacks from there, while Alaphillipe will fancy his chances in a sprint. Martin will benefit from having Alaphillipe's presence act as a discouragement to others chasing, because they'll be giving him a free ride. Alaphillipe will benefit from having that free ride.

From the flamme rouge, the only way that the question of one sacrificing for the other arises is if something happens like Valverde attacking early on the ramp and getting a gap.

 

[Laplaz]

Why are we discussing about a race that won't start?

 

[Jagartrott]

I'm sure Froome is very much looking forward to racing in 2°C weather, with sleet, wet roads and a nervous bunch.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

To generalise the argument: The issue at stake here is how much weaker than a favourite to you have to think you are before it becomes a good idea to ride a race sub-optimally for the purpose of also making that favourite ride sub-optimally?

The answer to that in the specific circumstances of LBL is that Martin and Alaphillipe won't think that they are even close to that point.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

To generalise the argument: The issue at stake here is how much weaker than a favourite to you have to think you are before it becomes a good idea to ride a race sub-optimally for the purpose of also making that favourite ride sub-optimally?

The answer to that in the specific circumstances of LBL is that Martin and Alaphillipe won't think that they are even close to that point.

Agree with that But I think they are wrong.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Not in a sprint no. But Poels in a solo, with others looking at eachother for just a tad too long, that could happen. Most of his wins are solo wins on a hilly course.

Yeah, but Poels dislikes cold weather, he's not the guy that I'd pick to do well in a LBL with cold, nasty weather.

Which is why I said in the post before, if you had read it, that 'if the weather isn't too cold'.
Forecast isn't 100% certain obviously

 

[TMP402]

Re:

I'm sure Froome is very much looking forward to racing in 2°C weather, with sleet, wet roads and a nervous bunch.

I'm surprised he's doing it. Not on the Sky website or his Twitter, but on PCS. Especially since he seems far more suited for FW. I remember him saying last year that he was doing it because "it's a WorldTour race" and I guess Team GB need him to get points or something.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Why are we discussing about a race that won't start?

You know, there are those who design race courses and those who design race results.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Why are we discussing about a race that won't start?

NOOOOO!!

Let all the hard men race, the wimps can pass out food bags.

 

[Brullnux]

Valverde might not win. He isn't the favourite some are making him out to be. He isn't great in sleet and rain in 5 or 6 degrees. Last year was rainy(ish, I think drizzly is the word) and relatively warm, above 10 degrees. This is different. As Zinoviev pointed out, before 2015 he hadn't won this race since 2008 (alright he didn't race for a couple of years), despite having been the favourite in the previous two. He was outsmarted not once but twice in a tactical finish: once by Martin and another time by Martin, before he crashed and then Bala was outsmarted by Gerrans (wheelsucking, yes, but in big races that's hardly a trait Valverde doesn't show), so two in the same race. Caruso almost beat them to the line so that was almost 3. Last year Moreno shredding the group played into his hands, as it became a battle of strength.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Well you had that script today

Fleche is not LBL. On the Mur tactics and teamwork count for less than sheer strength relative to the balance in LBL. That's why Valverde could beat Martin into second on the Mur in 2014 and then both get done over by Martin in the finale of LBL and outsprinted by Gerrans after Martin fell off.

You're giving Martin a bit too much credit for 2014. No real way of knowing what would have happened in the end without the crash.

 

[trevim]

Re: Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

Just like the last few years I'll be rooting for anyone who goes from far out in a decent tactical move. I wonder if my man Rui Costa is smart enough to pick a good move instead of saving himself for a possible podium sprint.

Anyway, I'll be cheering for:
Stars who could do with another great win
Vincenzo Nibali - His defeat to Iglisnky is still one of the defeats that I felt worst about, really glorious racing that day.
Joaquin Rodriguez - I know if he wins it means really negative racing but I like Purito and another monument win would be good to his palmares.

Solid Contenders
Tim Wellens - The bravest Ardennes rider in today's peloton, he's definitely not afraid to try something out of the box.
Romain Bardet - Great attacker, I remember when he first shone in the Ardennes in a breakaway with Howes. He only got better since and he hasn't lost his attacking spirit.
Diego Rosa - Awesome late season last year, great in Basque Country. Good Ardennes debut in AGR last year, I hope he goes on La Redoute.
Rui Costa - I think he can only win in a very calculated move, he can outsprint some riders but it'll be really difficult to get a gap.
Roman Kreuziger - He broke the AGR-crap curse two years ago so I have to cheer for him. Always been a favourite of mine and I always get knee pain watching him on the attack on those big gears.

Breakthrough
Silvain Dillier - One of my favourite riders, I wonder if he has the engine to pull off something like Vliegen did in AGR. Should attack really soon and that's good to open up the race.
Warren Barguil - He's an attacker and he should be getting more than 6th-10th placing in GC's for his efforts.
Michael Valgren - The revelation of the Ardennes so far I'm not expecting him to be suited to Liege climbs but I still hold some hope for a long attack.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Well you had that script today

Fleche is not LBL. On the Mur tactics and teamwork count for less than sheer strength relative to the balance in LBL. That's why Valverde could beat Martin into second on the Mur in 2014 and then both get done over by Martin in the finale of LBL and outsprinted by Gerrans after Martin fell off.

This. There's a reason why Valverde's won FW 4 times yet LBL only once

 

[pastronef]

Re: Re:

Well you had that script today

Fleche is not LBL. On the Mur tactics and teamwork count for less than sheer strength relative to the balance in LBL. That's why Valverde could beat Martin into second on the Mur in 2014 and then both get done over by Martin in the finale of LBL and outsprinted by Gerrans after Martin fell off.

This. There's a reason why Valverde's won FW 4 times yet LBL only once

3 times

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Well you had that script today

Fleche is not LBL. On the Mur tactics and teamwork count for less than sheer strength relative to the balance in LBL. That's why Valverde could beat Martin into second on the Mur in 2014 and then both get done over by Martin in the finale of LBL and outsprinted by Gerrans after Martin fell off.

This. There's a reason why Valverde's won FW 4 times yet LBL only once

3 times

Yep, twice when he was a lot younger. Which is very important for his palmares. But in the last seven years he's won once, despite being the strongest pretty much every time he started. Whereas he's won FW three times in a row.

FW is usually won by the strongest. LBL is usually won by the smartest of the four or five strongest.