2016 TdF, Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel → Utah Beach (188km)

[Kwibus]

Re:

I never said anything about justification bro. But Versailles gave Hitler the necessary fuel to instigate a fire (quite literally actually).

Only France was that harsh after WW1. Luckily everyone learned their lesson after WW2, that's very true. Sadly enough Europe fought each other and we became irrelevant on a world scale.

We were smart enough to unte though, but now a lot of people want to divide again.... History repeats.

There is a lot of stuff the EU is doing wrong and they really need to wake up, but everyone going for themselves again is ofcourse a huge problem and will only wreck Europe.

Enough politics!

Forecast is still pretty bad. 15-30km/h winds along the coast is enough for echelons. Add 50% chance of rain and it could be mayhem on the first stage.

Pray for no crashes!

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

How many stages will kittel win?

17

In a row!

Jokes aside I actually am afraid that Kittel might be out of the time limit(and get eliminated) in some of the shorter stages with lots of climbing. GC contenders trying to make up lost time might make it very fast.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

How many stages will kittel win?

17

In a row!

Jokes aside I actually am afraid that Kittel might be out of the time limit(and get eliminated) in some of the shorter stages with lots of climbing. GC contenders trying to make up lost time might make it very fast.

I also think that could happen but I'm not afraid of it

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

How many stages will kittel win?

17

In a row!

Jokes aside I actually am afraid that Kittel might be out of the time limit(and get eliminated) in some of the shorter stages with lots of climbing. GC contenders trying to make up lost time might make it very fast.

I also think that could happen but I'm not afraid of it

I'm afraid because I picked him in all my fantasy teams. :lol:

 

[Mongolian Mayhem]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel → Utah Beach (188km

Well, I hate to say but...Tinkoff and Movistar better fricken get to the front and stick with SKY or they will get BLOWN AWAY AS USUAL in the crosswind... recently, I've noticed Tinkoff/Movistar in horrible position in the back for some reason. Bertie always seems content towards the back (maybe he's thinking of how to get a coffee date with La Flo... :razz: ). Even a small 4-5 bike length gap can turn into a terrible 30 or 40 seconds disadvantage at the finish line.

The SKYbots have certainly figured it out in the last few years. Murdoch has probably paid to turn on the wind even... Anyhow, Tinkoff and Movistar should murder the front and stay there so as not to gift Froomenstein any freebies.

If Tinkoff or Movistar have learned their lessons, then the fight up front for optimal position should be a fantastic spectacle to watch in those flat, windier stages.

Tinkoff never lost time in crosswinds what are you on about ??? They even gain time in 2013 ....

2013 was a long time ago...

 

[Miburo]

What about 2015 bro? lol

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel → Utah Beach (188km

Well, I hate to say but...Tinkoff and Movistar better fricken get to the front and stick with SKY or they will get BLOWN AWAY AS USUAL in the crosswind... recently, I've noticed Tinkoff/Movistar in horrible position in the back for some reason. Bertie always seems content towards the back (maybe he's thinking of how to get a coffee date with La Flo... :razz: ). Even a small 4-5 bike length gap can turn into a terrible 30 or 40 seconds disadvantage at the finish line.

The SKYbots have certainly figured it out in the last few years. Murdoch has probably paid to turn on the wind even... Anyhow, Tinkoff and Movistar should murder the front and stay there so as not to gift Froomenstein any freebies.

If Tinkoff or Movistar have learned their lessons, then the fight up front for optimal position should be a fantastic spectacle to watch in those flat, windier stages.

Tinkoff never lost time in crosswinds what are you on about ??? They even gain time in 2013 ....

2013 was a long time ago...

C'mon dude. There was one single crosswind stage in gt's since that and he tinkoff was strong there too. You can't just say it's long ago when there isnt one single newer example of a crosswind stage where Tinkoff lost. Actually Tinkoff is even the only team of the big four which neither lost any time in the crosswind stage 2013 nor 2015.

Ps: Okay you could also say there was a crosswind stage in the vuelta 2014, where Quintana was in trouble and guess who was always in front: Alberto Contador

 

[matusow]

I expect a chaotic final unfortunately with a mass crash. Kittel to win unless something happens to him.

 

[sir fly]

I've just sampled some parts of the route through the Google street view (final 40 kilometres, or so), and it looks like the roads are fairly sheltered, apart from the section at the beach, but winding and narrowish. So, there's probably going to be a long stretched peloton 'cause of the narrowness and accelerations through the bends.
The gaps could appear anywhere, but it's not the sheer wind that will create them. Good bike handling and pace changing will be needed, as well.

 

[veji11]

Re:

I've just sampled some parts of the route through the Google street view (final 40 kilometres, or so), and it looks like the roads are fairly sheltered, apart from the section at the beach, but winding and narrowish. So, there's probably going to be a long stretched peloton 'cause of the narrowness and accelerations through the bends.
The gaps could appear anywhere, but it's not the sheer wind that will create them. Good bike handling and pace changing will be needed, as well.

The danger zones for echelon are between ks 30 and 50 and 90 and 105/110. The second zone is the most risky one because 80ks from the finish some teams might want to give it a try. Most of all though, it's the stress and tension and the fact that so many teams will be pushing hard to place their/leader sprinter high up in the bunch that could cause drama with a crash. After that, all bets are off.

 

[Publicus]

I hope no major GC contender crashes or is otherwise injured tomorrow

 

[veji11]

Re:

I hope no major GC contender crashes or is otherwise injured tomorrow

Same : seeing guys lose time because of echelons would be fun. Seeing guys lose time or worse because the tension led to crashes would suck.

 

[Warhawk]

Re: Re:

Bryan Coquard will win.

I feel sorry for the Germans that they have to be sorry again and again. For some maybe WW2 is old news but the wounds are still fresh. Years ago, I had a project, a TdF design and Farrar could win on a day like this...I hope that an American rider wins it.

If it's a bunch sprint there's no chance, but maybe Cannondale will try to put Howes in the break or something.

 

[Mongolian Mayhem]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel → Utah Beach (188km

Well, I hate to say but...Tinkoff and Movistar better fricken get to the front and stick with SKY or they will get BLOWN AWAY AS USUAL in the crosswind... recently, I've noticed Tinkoff/Movistar in horrible position in the back for some reason. Bertie always seems content towards the back (maybe he's thinking of how to get a coffee date with La Flo... :razz: ). Even a small 4-5 bike length gap can turn into a terrible 30 or 40 seconds disadvantage at the finish line.

The SKYbots have certainly figured it out in the last few years. Murdoch has probably paid to turn on the wind even... Anyhow, Tinkoff and Movistar should murder the front and stay there so as not to gift Froomenstein any freebies.

If Tinkoff or Movistar have learned their lessons, then the fight up front for optimal position should be a fantastic spectacle to watch in those flat, windier stages.

Tinkoff never lost time in crosswinds what are you on about ??? They even gain time in 2013 ....

2013 was a long time ago...

C'mon dude. There was one single crosswind stage in gt's since that and he tinkoff was strong there too. You can't just say it's long ago when there isnt one single newer example of a crosswind stage where Tinkoff lost. Actually Tinkoff is even the only team of the big four which neither lost any time in the crosswind stage 2013 nor 2015.

Ps: Okay you could also say there was a crosswind stage in the vuelta 2014, where Quintana was in trouble and guess who was always in front: Alberto Contador

Fair points...I would say that Contador being older and wily has probably figured this out already, I mean, he reads these forums religiously right?...

My fear is that Stinkoff gets caught out when they shouldn't and pay the price. If you've ever been caught out in a heavy cross wind with the pack drifting off the front seemingly so close, yet mercilessly so far. you'll know that the diesel runs out quickly. All I'm saying is that they better bungi cord themselves to the SKYtards and keep them well in hand.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

I hope no major GC contender crashes or is otherwise injured tomorrow

Maxmartin disagrees

 

[capuldemetal]

on a different forum someone said that there maybe 50khp winds.brace yourself for mayhem!

 

[Laplaz]

Tomorrow is a typical stage in which you don't know who's gonna win the tour after the stage, but you know who isn't gonna win it.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

on a different forum someone said that there maybe 50khp winds.brace yourself for mayhem!

50mph

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

on a different forum someone said that there maybe 50khp winds.brace yourself for mayhem!

50mph

Wait for real?!
As long as no one gets hurt, this would be awesome.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

on a different forum someone said that there maybe 50khp winds.brace yourself for mayhem!

50mph

Wait for real?!
As long as no one gets hurt, this would be awesome.

No, off course not.
50mps

Just trying to contribute to the rumour.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

on a different forum someone said that there maybe 50khp winds.brace yourself for mayhem!

50mph

Wait for real?!
As long as no one gets hurt, this would be awesome.

No, off course not.
50mps

Just trying to contribute to the rumour.

Sorry...me a dumb bunny....they'd probably cancel something like that these days.

 

[Random Direction]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel → Utah Beach (188km

Currently calling for 35 gusting to 50: http://www.myweather2.com/activity/forecast.aspx?loc=Utah%20Beach&rt=plugin&id=66760

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

on a different forum someone said that there maybe 50khp winds.brace yourself for mayhem!

50mph

Wait for real?!
As long as no one gets hurt, this would be awesome.

No, off course not.
50mps

Just trying to contribute to the rumour.

Sorry...me a dumb bunny....they'd probably cancel something like that these days.

Well, it's equally reliable as the first one. It's a forum info.

 

[veji11]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel → Utah Beach (188km

Currently calling for 35 gusting to 50: http://www.myweather2.com/activity/forecast.aspx?loc=Utah%20Beach&rt=plugin&id=66760

What matters is the baseline wind more than the gusts (to predict echelons, gusts help make them happen of course), until yesterday with 20km/h wind, it was possible but not that likely without strong gusts at the right time. 35 km/h wind is a different matter, it's already very respectable for echelons in itself, it means any time they'll be on an exposed road the danger will be there, gusts or not... could make for a very stressful day.

 

[RattaKuningas]

Why I have a feeling that movistar is going to lose time tomorrow.