2016 Tour de France, Stage 5: Limoges → Le Lioran (216km)

[cipurian]

Sagan in the break and tinkoff to protect contador.

 

[Sciocco]

Re:

Sagan in the break and tinkoff to protect contador.

Yellow jersey in the break?

That would be cool to see.

 

[movingtarget]

If Froome senses an opportunity he will take it. He always prefers to take time on climbs early in the race if he can. He won't want Yellow but he won't knock back some gains on any climb. We will have a good idea of how Contador is coping as there is sure to be attacks. Someone like Porte might have a go. Froome would prefer a longer climb where his team can really drill it but it's not just about Sky and if others attack as I think they will he has to respond anyway. Looks to be a finish for the punchier climbers like Valverde or Rodriguez but I would not be surprised if a break succeeded on a stage like this. The finish might be a bit too hard for the break to stay away.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

I don't know who will win. I see 3 options.

1) Someone from a break
2) Someone that the main GC guys don't see as a threat, but who can hang with them on these lower climbs. Maybe Majka now.
3) One of the main GC guys that can sprint a bit (if they all come in together), like Valverde.

 

[Oliwright]

Re: 2016 Tour de France, Stage 5: Limoges → Le Lioran (216km

Nibali to try something. If I were Bardet, I would attack too. Same for Pinot, but short climbs are not his thing. Wii Sky react to an attack if it's not Quintana? Maybe not. It could be 45 seconds on the line gained by a second tier GC guy. If the favorites come together, yes, Ala or Bala should win this...

There will be action.

There is too much descending for Pinot to attack from far out, and the finish is too easy for him to win on.

 

[Tonton]

Re: 2016 Tour de France, Stage 5: Limoges → Le Lioran (216km

Nibali to try something. If I were Bardet, I would attack too. Same for Pinot, but short climbs are not his thing. Wii Sky react to an attack if it's not Quintana? Maybe not. It could be 45 seconds on the line gained by a second tier GC guy. If the favorites come together, yes, Ala or Bala should win this...

There will be action.

There is too much descending for Pinot to attack from far out, and the finish is too easy for him to win on.

Pinot showed times and times again that when his head is in the right place, he descends just as well as anyone: Lombardia '15, Romandie under the rain, et caetera. Winning maybe not, but taking off with Nibali, I could see it. I can't help but think that Nibali wants to ruin Aru's chances and remain Italia's #1, plus they hate each other. I doubt that Tibopino will make a move, but I hope he does. So far, Madiot seems to want him to save energy, trade a little time here and there for safety, play conservative, and evaluate the situation comes rest day: put his money on week 3. Smart, I guess. But Bardet won't make any calculations: if he plays it safe, he'll end up 7th, 9th. So why not gamble, and maybe pull a Chiappucci? Pinot otoh is aiming at a top-5. Still, tomorrow is a low-stake gamble: win or lose a minute or so. That could be the difference between 6th and 4th, 5th and a podium. I'd go for it. But it's me talking, who never on a race, the Haimar of the mid-80s cadet-junior cycling scene in the greater Paris area ...

 

[plooton]

All depends on Sagan's stance - if he really wants go deep, he has it already in the bag. Otherwise I expect the top favourites already in the mix of whom I believe Froome the most. To make a guess, Valverde takes the stage.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

All depends on Sagan's stance - if he really wants go deep, he has it already in the bag. Otherwise I expect the top favourites already in the mix of whom I believe Froome the most. To make a guess, Valverde takes the stage.

Nope. He would have to go real deep to keep up. This would take away any speed advantage he usual has. He could easily be beaten.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Kreuziger
Valverde -30
Alaphilippe
Sagan
Gerrans

Contador, Pinot, Valverde, Quintana, Te Jay, Bardet to finish same time.
Froome to lose 20s. Porte to be sacrificed to Praying Mantis and lose 4 mins.

 

[yespatterns]

Contie will be tested I'm sure, since that would be the smart thing. I don't actually foresee large GC gaps, but have fingers crossed for monster climbs and epic descents from the second teir competitors.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

BM to become TGBM once more with a dominant win.

The Great Bling Matthews?

I'm not sure if you're seriously asking or just making fun of TGBM. Make no mistake, these sort of heresies will not be tolerated. There's only one rider worthy of such title.

I'll contact an admin to change the rules to handle blasphemy like this properly :twisted:

Excellent CNF humour

I think that Tinkoff will let the breakaway go, as they will try to make it as easy for Contador as possible, and the finish is slightly too hilly for Sagan to win.

 

[dgodave]

There better be some pretty villages or I will be upset.

 

[Trev_S]

My line of thinking is there is a very good chance the break will get through for the win.
GC teams won't have the desire to push on that hard just yet unless there is one or more GC canditates caught out/struggling.
If the break isn't given enough rope to get away far enough there could be a range of stage winners, Sagan & Van Avermaet could still be in the mix. Although I tend to think the win will come from Valverde, Alaphilippe or Gerrans.

Alaphilippe into Yellow.

 

[The Barb]

Re: 2016 Tour de France, Stage 5: Limoges → Le Lioran (216km

Should be good. I love any stage where early break, late attack or reduced bunch sprint are all reasonable possibilities.

Albasini is one who can win from any scenario I don't understand why he is 80-1 and getting no mention. I would have thought he would be one of the leading ten or so chances. He dropped another 2 minutes yesterday to be 4:37 down overall so will get some freedom.

 

[jaylew]

Ala to win. He's seems to be on incredible form. I really think he has the most potential of all the French cyclists, even more than Barnot.

 

[dacooley]

allaphillipe or gerrans ftw. nothing at all to occur in gc.

if astana, sky and movistar sense bertie's weakness and consolidate forces, none of puncheurs stand a chance to survive in the leading group though.

 

[kukiniloa]

Re:

Kreuziger
Valverde -30
Alaphilippe
Sagan
Gerrans

Contador, Pinot, Valverde, Quintana, Te Jay, Bardet to finish same time.
Froome to lose 20s. Porte to be sacrificed to Praying Mantis and lose 4 mins.

aaannd Kristoff is nowhere to be seen. What's his prospect, as he may be facing the frequent occasion when a sprinter has no success early and so tries to last?

 

[RattaKuningas]

I think Astana might start to make some moves today.

 

[Oliwright]

Re:

Kreuziger
Valverde -30
Alaphilippe
Sagan
Gerrans

Contador, Pinot, Valverde, Quintana, Te Jay, Bardet to finish same time.
Froome to lose 20s. Porte to be sacrificed to Praying Mantis and lose 4 mins.

Well ur going to be disappointed!

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

All depends on Sagan's stance - if he really wants go deep, he has it already in the bag. Otherwise I expect the top favourites already in the mix of whom I believe Froome the most. To make a guess, Valverde takes the stage.

If a GC guy attacks, he will have to go very deep to keep up.

In 2004 footage (featuring Puy-Mary), the GC group contained approx. twenty riders at the summit.
Here's the climb : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv_LLv0BQEs&t=39m40s

 

[kukiniloa]

this stage has Nibali or Valverde written all over it. Mark my words!

 

[vladimir]

LuLu Sanchez must get some mention here.
As far as I know he has won the stage the last two times the TDF has gone over Pas de Peyrol (2008 and 2011)? :surprised:
Surely he will be trying to make a real hat-trick, and he is one of those that will not be marked by the big favourites.

 

[Oliwright]

Re: 2016 Tour de France, Stage 5: Limoges → Le Lioran (216km

If people think Froome will loose time then they are unrealistic.
I hope Bertie has recovered as much as possible!!

I expect Valverde to win in a very reduced bunch

 

[SafeBet]

Excellent stage design for once. I think Sagan has a chance to hold the jersey, but it will depend on how the stage is ridden.
Bardet and Lulu Sanchez could try something. Plenty of teams (Etixx, Tinkoff, Movistar) will want to control the stage so I'm not sure the break has a chance. Rosa is my personal outsider.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Come on Sagan, teach these guys a lesson!