2016 Tour de France, Stage 5: Limoges → Le Lioran (216km)

[tomorrow]

imho, it's not that impossible that sagan or gva will manage to hold. Yes, if the race is ridden in full *** mode, then there's is no chance. However, I just don't see this happening. Sky won't go full ***, cause there are pretty nasty downhills from the cat2 climbs. Movistart won't work because, well, it's movistar. We'd be lucky if they worked to put froome into pressure in the last stages. And Ettix doesn't have the power to loose sagan, the only better riders are Martin and Alaphillipe in such terain, and they won't obviously make the pace, and they can't attack, cause it's too far from the finish.
Also, if you look at the percentages of the cat2 climbs, they look very difficult for sagan. However, if you look closer, the first cat2 climb is 3km at 5% and 2.4km at 11%. Given that sagan manages to hang in the front of the peloton, than drop himself into the back of the peloton slowly, and with the technical descent, he is back like nothing. The other cat2 climb has also some false flat in the middle, so it's divided in two, aproximately 1.5 km long steep sections, which is not that bad for sagan. Even if sagan is dropped here, what I don't believe, he will too come back in the descent. And finally, they won't drop sagan in the last climb. So if sagan and gva ride their own controlled pace, they can very well stay with the bunch.
However, that sagan and gva won't get dropped in the last climb by the bunch doesn't mean, they will be able to follow brave attackers like Nibali in example. I think Alaphilipe or Valverde(if he really wants the stage) should attack the peloton, if they want the win and sagan is still there.
For me, this is one of the most expected early stages in the TdF in ages. It has some many possible endings that I am very curious how it will eventually end. And with Contador's accidents, there a substory too. I just hope, that the potential is transferred into some action.

 

[jens_attacks]

fabio aru or romain bardet plz

and fingers crossed for alberto.

 

[staubsauger]

Astana to go full Giro 2015 style and kill Contador!

 

[the chicken from T]

I Can't decide who to select for my team tomorrow:
Bardet Barguil or Matthews?
maybe one of the cracks on this forum can give his advice?

 

[AlexNYC]

I just read that Froome thinks Valverde might take yellow tomorrow; he also said he would have to treat him as a genuine GC threat until he loses time. I have to wonder if he's just bluffing or trying to confound Movistar, either of which would make fine tactics; but I guess we'll know for sure tomorrow.

I can't believe anyone actually thinks Valverde would have a chance in hell to win this, even without the big three; so, if I'm Movistar, the only thing I would be concerned about if Valverde were to take yellow is having to defend the maillot jaune, and thus waste precious energy.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I just read that Froome thinks Valverde might take yellow tomorrow; he also said he would have to treat him as a genuine GC threat until he loses time. I have to wonder if he's just bluffing or trying to confound Movistar, either of which would make fine tactics; but I guess we'll know for sure tomorrow.

I can't believe anyone actually thinks Valverde would have a chance in hell to win this, even without the big three; so, if I'm Movistar, the only thing I would be concerned about if Valverde were to take yellow is having to defend the maillot jaune, and thus waste precious energy.

Of course he would have to treat him as a genuine GC threat. You couldn't let a rider like Valverde go unmarked on a climb like Aspin - potentially gaining a couple of minutes.

Valverde is most useful to Quintana anyway if he is high up in the GC. That way, later in the Tour, he can attack and burn out Sky's domestiques who would have to chase him down. Leaving Quintana to battle 1v1 against Froome.

 

[WildspokeJoe]

Re: Re:

If I'm Quintana, I don't want Valverde taking yellow

Doesn't make a difference when the Skytrain takes off on the Aspin and Valverde gets dropped at one point

At the very least, it would force Movistar to waste energy riding at the front to 'defend' the yellow.

Gotta go with Sam here. Sky is so successful because they have only one goal. To give Valverde even one day of glory distracts from the only goal which is putting Nario in yellow.

 

[AlexNYC]

Re: Re:

Of course he would have to treat him as a genuine GC threat. You couldn't let a rider like Valverde go unmarked on a climb like Aspin - potentially gaining a couple of minutes.

Valverde is most useful to Quintana anyway if he is high up in the GC. That way, later in the Tour, he can attack and burn out Sky's domestiques who would have to chase him down. Leaving Quintana to battle 1v1 against Froome.

With a hard Giro in his legs, Valverde is going to bleed minutes as soon as the real mountains begin. I don't think Sky need to worry about him at all.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Of course he would have to treat him as a genuine GC threat. You couldn't let a rider like Valverde go unmarked on a climb like Aspin - potentially gaining a couple of minutes.

Valverde is most useful to Quintana anyway if he is high up in the GC. That way, later in the Tour, he can attack and burn out Sky's domestiques who would have to chase him down. Leaving Quintana to battle 1v1 against Froome.

With a hard Giro in his legs, Valverde is going to bleed minutes as soon as the real mountains begin. I don't think Sky need to worry about him at all.

You're probably right, but why take the risk? It's not like if someone like Voeckler had stumbled into yellow. Valverde has generally done well in the past in his second GT of the year and is a big enough GC threat to take seriously, at least until he proves otherwise by leaking time. Same situation with Nibali - I think it's normal for Froome to want to control riders like that as much as possible.

 

[HelloDolly]

Movistar need Valvede high on GC just like last year...he will be someone for SKY doms to follow and hence tire them out....that is Valverde working for Nairo

I expect SKY to drill it tomorrow ...not to attack Contador but to put Quintana under pressure ...from now on it operation"'find Quintana's weakness"
Maybe they hope he will be his usual slow starter in a GT

My pick is EQS either Allaphillipe or Dan Martin...they have the speed and can climb and will be outside the SKY radar somewhat

 

[Mr.White]

Breakaway to take it. Nobody is going to chase, Tinkoff won't go full gas because of Contador, Etixx doesn't have the power, same as Orica. Movistar will not chase (cause they never do), and Sky doesn't have a contender for the stage, so no real reason to chase. Only if Sky test Contador on the hardest climb and if Alberto is in difficulty then we'll have a real race

 

[AlexNYC]

Re:

Movistar need Valvede high on GC just like last year...he will be someone for SKY doms to follow and hence tire them out....that is Valverde working for Nairo

I expect SKY to drill it tomorrow ...not to attack Contador but to put Quintana under pressure ...from now on it operation"'find Quintana's weakness"
Maybe they hope he will be his usual slow starter in a GT

My pick is EQS either Allaphillipe or Dan Martin...they have the speed and can climb and will be outside the SKY radar somewhat

What are the chances that Valverde can be high in the GC after the Pyrenees? Very low I would guess, and that's my quibble with this argument.

 

[DBotero]

Re: 2016 Tour de France, Stage 5: Limoges → Le Lioran (216km

Tomorrow is the time for Valverde to grab his stage win and the yellow jersey.I don't think the break will make it,the big teams will ride hard this stage.

 

[boasson]

I tink it's a pretty predictable final tomorrow. Kiri makes the pace at the first 3 km of the first climb. Poels or/and Nieve makes the tempo at the last 2.5 km of the first climb (with 11,7 percent avg. gradient!!!). So the bunch is about 20-40 men left at the top. They ride till the second climb. Then we will see Henao. When he rides fullgas there are 10men left at the top. And then it will all depend on whats about Contador. When he is dropped, Henao will go fullgas till the finish with a sucking Valverde who wins this in the sprint.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Astana to go full Giro 2015 style and kill Contador!

I really want to see the Vino train in action.

 

[barmaher]

Re:

I tink it's a pretty predictable final tomorrow. Kiri makes the pace at the first 3 km of the first climb. Poels or/and Nieve makes the tempo at the last 2.5 km of the first climb (with 11,7 percent avg. gradient!!!). So the bunch is about 20-40 men left at the top. They ride till the second climb. Then we will see Henao. When he rides fullgas there are 10men left at the top. And then it will all depend on whats about Contador. When he is dropped, Henao will go fullgas till the finish with a sucking Valverde who wins this in the sprint.

Easy to predict? I would bet this is not what happens.

I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen tomorrow.

 

[muppetkokken]

What about Boasson Hagen or Vegard Breen? This could be a possible stage for both of them if they get on a break-away.

 

[MatParker117]

Re:

Breakaway to take it. Nobody is going to chase, Tinkoff won't go full gas because of Contador, Etixx doesn't have the power, same as Orica. Movistar will not chase (cause they never do), and Sky doesn't have a contender for the stage, so no real reason to chase. Only if Sky test Contador on the hardest climb and if Alberto is in difficulty then we'll have a real race

Poels?

Henao?

 

[Bushman]

Re:

What about Boasson Hagen or Vegard Breen? This could be a possible stage for both of them if they get on a break-away.

Vegard Breen? The one who was dropped by the mighty climber Jasper Stuyven?

 

[WildspokeJoe]

Re: Re:

Astana to go full Giro 2015 style and kill Contador!

I really want to see the Vino train in action.

Astana has been absolutely anonymous so far. Personally, I think that's a good sign. Staying out of the way focused on one goal. I'm looking for big things when the road turns lumpy.

 

[DNP-Old]

Jarlinson Pantani has this stage marked for a while. Expect him to do well.

 

[hfer07]

Re:

Jarlinson Pantano has this stage marked for a while. Expect him to do well.

Fixed and yes- I hope he gets the chance to go FTW

 

[DNP-Old]

Re: Re:

Jarlinson Pantano has this stage marked for a while. Expect him to do well.

Fixed and yes- I hope he gets the chance to go FTW

I put Pantani on purpose..

 

[boasson]

Re: Re:

I tink it's a pretty predictable final tomorrow. Kiri makes the pace at the first 3 km of the first climb. Poels or/and Nieve makes the tempo at the last 2.5 km of the first climb (with 11,7 percent avg. gradient!!!). So the bunch is about 20-40 men left at the top. They ride till the second climb. Then we will see Henao. When he rides fullgas there are 10men left at the top. And then it will all depend on whats about Contador. When he is dropped, Henao will go fullgas till the finish with a sucking Valverde who wins this in the sprint.

Easy to predict? I would bet this is not what happens.

I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen tomorrow.

You think Sky will not control the race in the last 40k's? They will use their numbers of climbers. Kiri, Poels, Nieve can emptying thereselves completely. This is the passive way. With G, Henao, Landa it's the agressive way. And with Froome it's the thermonuclear way. Not more scenarios possible

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Breakaway to take it. Nobody is going to chase, Tinkoff won't go full gas because of Contador, Etixx doesn't have the power, same as Orica. Movistar will not chase (cause they never do), and Sky doesn't have a contender for the stage, so no real reason to chase. Only if Sky test Contador on the hardest climb and if Alberto is in difficulty then we'll have a real race

Poels?

Henao?

Well, they could do well, but I really doubt either of them can win this stage in these circuimstances, when they're riding for Froome. We all know Sky rarely gave chances for doms.