2016 Vuelta a España, Info & Discussion

[TMP402]

I think Tinkoff chased because putting bonus seconds and the stage win on the table was the smart play regardless. But there could be another reason. Mainly, is Contador already racing for third? That would be a bit sad, but it would also make sense. He hasn't even put in a real dig so far in the Vuelta, not even a desperate "Nairo at Ventoux (I don't have the legs but I'll give it everything)" type dig.

I'd say he has. A few times. They just didn't work out.

 

[carton]

I'd say he has. A few times. They just didn't work out.

Maybe my memory is shoddy but when? I don't remember him putting any attacks, even half-hearted ones, or Camperona, Covadonga or Peña Cabarga.

 

[jens_attacks]

Re: Re:

still can't believe that neither of valverde, froome or quintana will fade/have a bad day the next two weeks. of course it will cause them damage only if it comes during aubisque or ITT stage. but to be that fresh after le tour, nah they must get tired.

Easy Tour route this year

yes. easiest since 1987.

 

[barmaher]

Was 1987 that easy? I thought there were a lot of hard Alpine days, two long flat ITTs and an ITT up Ventoux.

Not the hardest route of the 80s, but surely not easier than 2012, etc.

 

[Netserk]

It's a joke. Jens thinks that this year's Tour route was very hard, so I poked fun at him by suggesting that it was because the route was easy this year, which I do think to some extend that it was.

 

[barmaher]

Whoosh, over my head.

Thanks for explaining.

 

[carton]

OK, just so this is clear, there are two guys currently racing for first. That may change, but that's just the situation as it stands. Everyone else is racing for placings. So when you're about to ask yourself why is Tinkoff doing this and why is Astana/Cannondale/Orica/BMC/Caja Rural doing that: that's why.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Clearly Orica rides to win. But are their men good enough in the end, well we shall see.

 

[ontheroad]

How much time will Froome take from Quintana in the TT. Predictions range from 1-3 minutes. Let's say he takes somewhere in between, well then he needs to take around 1.30+ in the other remaining stages to win the Vuelta. Impossible it is not, but Quintana is now strong favourite and he can ride defensively now all the way to Madrid. I think he effectively won the Vuelta today.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

How much time will Froome take from Quintana in the TT. Predictions range from 1-3 minutes. Let's say he takes somewhere in between, well then he needs to take around 1.30+ in the other remaining stages to win the Vuelta. Impossible it is not, but Quintana is now strong favourite and he can ride defensively now all the way to Madrid. I think he effectively won the Vuelta today.

My guess was between 60-90 seconds, but probably closer to 60 seconds than the 90.

Realistically its race over for the win, but if Froome and Contador TT well and are around 2 minutes back on the final mountain stage and something crazy happens then you never know in this sport. It also depends if guys like Contador/Chavez/Yates want to take the risks too. I'm sure Contador would try for at least a stage win on Saturday.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Well for a start, Froome should be able to drop Quintana on Tuesday. The final summit is short and steep, and very similar to Pena Cabarga. Problem is, he's looking at a maximum of around 15 seconds. I think we can expect him to take 90-120s on Quintana in the TT. Therefore, absolute best case scenario, he goes into Saturday 82s down, and at that point we're talking Froome PSM level if he wants to win, or a Contador Siestre version of Nairo.

But as Mr Contador would say, querer es poder. Anything is possible

 

[tretiak]

Re:

Well for a start, Froome should be able to drop Quintana on Tuesday. The final summit is short and steep, and very similar to Pena Cabarga. Problem is, he's looking at a maximum of around 15 seconds. I think we can expect him to take 90-120s on Quintana in the TT. Therefore, absolute best case scenario, he goes into Saturday 82s down, and at that point we're talking Froome PSM level if he wants to win, or a Contador Siestre version of Nairo.

But as Mr Contador would say, querer es poder. Anything is possible

Are you sure Froome has the leg? Stage 15 he did not blow himself up literally before the final climb and he did not put anytime to Quintana the last km.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Re:

How much time will Froome take from Quintana in the TT. Predictions range from 1-3 minutes. Let's say he takes somewhere in between, well then he needs to take around 1.30+ in the other remaining stages to win the Vuelta. Impossible it is not, but Quintana is now strong favourite and he can ride defensively now all the way to Madrid. I think he effectively won the Vuelta today.

depends on the wind. if there is a lot of wind maybe 3 minutes. if no wind 1 minute

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

How much time will Froome take from Quintana in the TT. Predictions range from 1-3 minutes. Let's say he takes somewhere in between, well then he needs to take around 1.30+ in the other remaining stages to win the Vuelta. Impossible it is not, but Quintana is now strong favourite and he can ride defensively now all the way to Madrid. I think he effectively won the Vuelta today.

depends on the wind. if there is a lot of wind maybe 3 minutes. if no wind 1 minute

Don't think wind will be too much of a factor. Most of the route is reasonably well sheltered; it's not on open coastal roads. And la gota fría isn't forecast anytime soon.

I'd be suprised if Quintana lost more than a minute; it's a fairly lumpy and technical course - not purely a head down, consistent effort.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Well for a start, Froome should be able to drop Quintana on Tuesday. The final summit is short and steep, and very similar to Pena Cabarga. Problem is, he's looking at a maximum of around 15 seconds. I think we can expect him to take 90-120s on Quintana in the TT. Therefore, absolute best case scenario, he goes into Saturday 82s down, and at that point we're talking Froome PSM level if he wants to win, or a Contador Siestre version of Nairo.

But as Mr Contador would say, querer es poder. Anything is possible

Are you sure Froome has the leg? Stage 15 he did not blow himself up literally before the final climb and he did not put anytime to Quintana the last km.

No I'm not. Quintana is undoubtably stronger right now. The only way Froome wins is if Quintana fades, and Froome fades less. I don't think he has to worry about looking over his shoulder too much though, as Chaves can't TT and Contador still looks weak. But Froome already has 2 2nd places, and although a Tour win + Vuelta runner up in the same season would be a fantastic achievement, he surely has to put it all on the line for the win. Froome is a champion, and I think he's stronger mentally than any of the other GC guys

 

[tretiak]

Re: Re:

No I'm not. Quintana is undoubtably stronger right now. The only way Froome wins is if Quintana fades, and Froome fades less. I don't think he has to worry about looking over his shoulder too much though, as Chaves can't TT and Contador still looks weak. But Froome already has 2 2nd places, and although a Tour win + Vuelta runner up in the same season would be a fantastic achievement, he surely has to put it all on the line for the win. Froome is a champion, and I think he's stronger mentally than any of the other GC guys

Froome did not ride the Vuelta for 2nd place. Vuelta will be a failure for him if he doesn't manage to turn the cards (It ain't over till the fat lady sings).
Froome is like Contador 2nd place is not good.
He had smash opportunities and only had to follow Quintana wheels before the TT, but hit the net.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Well for a start, Froome should be able to drop Quintana on Tuesday. The final summit is short and steep, and very similar to Pena Cabarga. Problem is, he's looking at a maximum of around 15 seconds. I think we can expect him to take 90-120s on Quintana in the TT. Therefore, absolute best case scenario, he goes into Saturday 82s down, and at that point we're talking Froome PSM level if he wants to win, or a Contador Siestre version of Nairo.

But as Mr Contador would say, querer es poder. Anything is possible

I certainly don't think anybody is gonna drop anybody on Tuesday. Except maybe on the teams' rest-day coffee-ride.

 

[Poursuivant]

Maybe the TT will be shortened because of those wildfires in the region.

Anyway, I don't think it will matter too much, Quintana's lead is massive.

 

[DFA123]

A big forest fire is currently raging around Javea and Benitatxell. Lots of people evacuated from homes and no sign yet of it being under control. I think there's a decent chance it could force a change in the TT route - as it goes very close the zone where the fire currently is. If not, it could be a very hot day in the saddle.

 

[Lexman]

I don't know why for instance Chaves wants to be top in the 3rd week.

There are only 2 Mountain stages and the ITT....

The hardest part seems to be done, no?

 

[yaco]

Reckon Stage 17 suits Chavez - Wait and see.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I don't know why for instance Chaves wants to be top in the 3rd week.

There are only 2 Mountain stages and the ITT....

The hardest part seems to be done, no?

His podium is at risk with Contador.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

I don't know why for instance Chaves wants to be top in the 3rd week.

There are only 2 Mountain stages and the ITT....

The hardest part seems to be done, no?

Only? Third week is the money week. With two good days of climbing and a solid TT Chaves may even overhaul a flagging Froome, and he still has to hold off Contador, who everyone knows won't give up until the end of the 21st stage.

Chaves will want to avoid what happened last year, where he was red hot early, found himself high on GC and had to dig deep in an attempt to hold it. So far it seems to be working, because he's mostly matching the two best climbers in the world.

 

[claude cat]

Re: Re:

I don't know why for instance Chaves wants to be top in the 3rd week.

There are only 2 Mountain stages and the ITT....

The hardest part seems to be done, no?

Only? Third week is the money week. With two good days of climbing and a solid TT Chaves may even overhaul a flagging Froome, and he still has to hold off Contador, who everyone knows won't give up until the end of the 21st stage.

Chaves will want to avoid what happened last year, where he was red hot early, found himself high on GC and had to dig deep in an attempt to hold it. So far it seems to be working, because he's mostly matching the two best climbers in the world.

I'm worried he's going to lose significant time in the ITT. Lets hope not.

 

[Lexman]

Re:

Reckon Stage 17 suits Chavez - Wait and see.

he certainly wasn't able to distance Contador yesterday....