2016 Vuelta a España, Stage 20: Benidorm → Alto de Aitana

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

Froome needs to gain here (roughly) what Quintana would need to gain if there wasn't Formigal failure (or success, as you wish).
Last chance for Contador to take a stage and for Orica to take a podium spot.
Enough for spectacle.

Hadn't formigal happened, it would have left us with a rider with better climbing legs and with a better team having to make up 80 seconds. That translates into a guaranteed spectacle.

Yes, I can agree Froome's chances are lesser than Quintana's would've been.
But Froome is a bigger fighter of the two.

 

[Tank Engine]

While Stoneface and the Alien do trackstands, Chaves and Bertie jump ahead to fight for the stage win.

Chaves wins the stage. Stoneface wins the overall.

 

[slosada]

Vuelta 2014 all over again.
The cast:
Quintana as Berto'14
Froome as... well, Froome

Contador as Valverde'14
Chaves as Purito'14

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Vuelta 2014 all over again.
The cast:
Quintana as Berto'14
Froome as... well, Froome

Contador as Valverde'14
Chaves as Purito'14

Lol, you could be spot on. Quintana jumps away in the final km, takes the stage, Contador and Chaves finish a long way back. I think this climb suits Quintana and Froome better than Chaves and Contador who prefer shorter climbs, so only if Quintana and Froome don't care about them or the stage victory, they have a chance to win.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Froome needs to gain here (roughly) what Quintana would need to gain if there wasn't Formigal failure (or success, as you wish).
Last chance for Contador to take a stage and for Orica to take a podium spot.
Enough for spectacle.

Hadn't formigal happened, it would have left us with a rider with better climbing legs and with a better team having to make up 80 seconds. That translates into a guaranteed spectacle.

Yes, I can agree Froome's chances are lesser than Quintana's would've been.
But Froome is a bigger fighter of the two.

Hyperbole. Froome's "fight" wasn't that impressive IMO. For example Cadel Evans suffered far more than Froome has ever shown. Four examples that come to mind were 2007 Tdf Aubisque, 2008 Hautacam and 2008 Alpe stages riding single handedly against the might of Saxo whilst carrying injuries from a nasty stage 9 fall and then of course his epic ride up the Galibier which effectively won him the 2011 TdF. Nothing compares that Froome has done when put on the defensive. When has Quintana had to minimise losses? Try the 2016 TdF still got a podium despite obviously poor form.

Quintana has enough, he will take another 15 seconds on Froome in this stage to make a point. Hopefully Chaves can get one over Contador.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Vuelta 2014 all over again.
The cast:
Quintana as Berto'14
Froome as... well, Froome

Contador as Valverde'14
Chaves as Purito'14

Nice !

Call me greedy, but I have another scenario. It has been a great Vuelta so far. If tomorrow is a slug fest, it could be one of the best GTs in the past 30 years. Maybe Bertie holds the key: we know the quote about being second: third place is not good for the great Alberto Contador. He has nothing to lose. Go Berto! Long range attack, win for the ages, Haimar for a top-10.

I hope that we don't get disappointed.

 

[spiritualride]

Any estimate on how much climbing there is on this stage? Looking at the profile, my guess is ~4,000 meters of climbing (including uncategorized).

I expect Froome to try something with 50-60km to go. It might be best to try to break up the peloton before the cat2 climb around Alcoleja in a similar manner to what happened on stage 15... get a gap on Quintana before the climb starts, and pray that Quintana cracks or his team runs out of gas and is unable to chase in the 25km between the summit of Tudons and the base of Aitana. I don't think it makes sense to just wait until the last climb. If Quintana is weak enough to crack on the last climb, Froome will have a much better chance on making up the seconds if he's ahead of him before the start of the last climb.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Go Berto! Long range attack, win for the ages, Haimar for a top-10.

Dude, I want what you've smoked

 

[Asturiano]

Re:

Any estimate on how much climbing there is on this stage? Looking at the profile, my guess is ~4,000 meters of climbing (including uncategorized).

I expect Froome to try something with 50-60km to go. It might be best to try to break up the peloton before the cat2 climb around Alcoleja in a similar manner to what happened on stage 15... get a gap on Quintana before the climb starts, and pray that Quintana cracks or his team runs out of gas and is unable to chase in the 25km between the summit of Tudons and the base of Aitana. I don't think it makes sense to just wait until the last climb. If Quintana is weak enough to crack on the last climb, Froome will have a much better chance on making up the seconds if he's ahead of him before the start of the last climb.

The stage is more than 4.000 metres of climbing. In fact, the climbs are not as hard as you can expect but the intermediate profile is harder than you can expect. No many flats, it's a stage with many ups and downs almost all the time. A really good profile to make a hard stage with a big team.

Alto de Rates:
http://1001puertosdemontana.blogspot.com.es/2015/03/coll-de-rates-por-tarbena.html

Alto de Ebo
http://1001puertosdemontana.blogspot.com.es/2014/02/alto-de-ebo-por-pego.html

Alto de Tollos
http://www.altimetrias.net/aspbk/verPerfilusu.asp?id=477

 

[Durden93]

Sky train to attack, followed by Quintana, Valverde and Fernandez. Froome to drop everyone but Quintana on the second climb. 2 hours plus of mano a mano

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Go Berto! Long range attack, win for the ages, Haimar for a top-10.

Dude, I want what you've smoked

I know it's far fetched , but if/when he launches a long range attack, Dawg and Nairito may be waiting for the other to do the work, neutralize each other, not wanting to burn themselves and their teams until the final climb. And Bertie pulls a Floyd. Who knows? Right now, Alberto has nothing to lose. Nothing. If he has the guts to go for it, and I suspect that he will, then I hope that he'll get the glory. And retire on Sunday night.

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

Go Berto! Long range attack, win for the ages, Haimar for a top-10.

Dude, I want what you've smoked

I know it's far fetched , but if/when he launches a long range attack, Dawg and Nairito may be waiting for the other to do the work, neutralize each other, not wanting to burn themselves and their teams until the final climb. And Bertie pulls a Floyd. Who knows? Right now, Alberto has nothing to lose. Nothing. If he has the guts to go for it, and I suspect that he will, then I hope that he'll get the glory. And retire on Sunday night.

Bertie isn't going up against Pereiro and Kloden though, he's going up against great riders (although Sastre was very good).

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Go Berto! Long range attack, win for the ages, Haimar for a top-10.

Dude, I want what you've smoked

I know it's far fetched , but if/when he launches a long range attack, Dawg and Nairito may be waiting for the other to do the work, neutralize each other, not wanting to burn themselves and their teams until the final climb. And Bertie pulls a Floyd. Who knows? Right now, Alberto has nothing to lose. Nothing. If he has the guts to go for it, and I suspect that he will, then I hope that he'll get the glory. And retire on Sunday night.

Bertie isn't going up against Pereiro and Kloden though, he's going up against great riders (although Sastre was very good).

Fair enough...but Floyd was no Contador .

 

[AlexNYC]

Tomorrow is the rare day in cycling when we're guaranteed to have an incredible spectacle due to the circumstances of the race. My only hope is that the big teams don't let a break take this.

 

[Sykes]

Don't expect a breakaway win, bonus seconds can be decisive tomorrow!

 

[samhocking]

The alliances between Sky, Tinkoff, Movistar & Orica will be crucial tomorrow. There's some complicated scenarios that could pan out depending on what happens early on with a gap between Chaves & Froome. It will probably all neutralise itself out for the final climb, but I think Froome needs to go all out and unless Chaves can go with him, at some point there's no longer a mutual interest in Contador working with Quintana if Contador is with Chaves already, but Quintana not within a minute of Froome.

 

[orangerider]

Froome will go full *** with everyone trying to latch on. Chaves gets dropped early on and reminded once again he needs to work on stamina for future grand tours. Contador tries to foolishly attack the two leaders instead of following wheel, so ends up running out of gas and momentarily falls back, but is able to diesel his way back up to the duo. Then we start to see the first sign of weakness by Stoneface as he is unable to match Froome's famed 900 watt accelerations. Froome takes the stage win and bonus time, but still comes up short. Contador manages to retain his 3rd place podium.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Froome is on fire, Quintana is fading.This will be the most epic, insane stage in the history of any GT ever. I hope i'm not expecting too much.

You are expecting too much

Please, for the love of all that is holy, turn off your TV and go off for a bike ride tomorrow

 

[SHAD0W93]

Contador to attack with full Tinkoff team at beginning of stage. Valverde to follow.
Contador to win the stage with Valverde 2nd. Valverde to move into the top 10.
Quintana and Froome finish 4 mins back.
Forum to crash at the start of the Alto de Aitana.

 

[PremierAndrew]

I'm expecting a re-run of Pena Cabarga 5 years ago. Froome will drop Quintana at some point tomorrow and look like he's about to win the Vuelta, before fading and eventually losing red to Nairo

At least we can hope for something epic like that

 

[Jungle Cycle]

I think the bulk of the actions will be early on.. the fight to form the break will be pretty crazy..
i think Contador will be much like Quintana and will play defense and wait/follow to either Sky or OBE to blow their teams before do anything..
It wont work it again "so soon" and with his tinkoff against Movi+Sky...

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

Go Berto! Long range attack, win for the ages, Haimar for a top-10.

Dude, I want what you've smoked

I know it's far fetched , but if/when he launches a long range attack, Dawg and Nairito may be waiting for the other to do the work, neutralize each other, not wanting to burn themselves and their teams until the final climb. And Bertie pulls a Floyd. Who knows? Right now, Alberto has nothing to lose. Nothing. If he has the guts to go for it, and I suspect that he will, then I hope that he'll get the glory. And retire on Sunday night.

Bertie isn't going up against Pereiro and Kloden though, he's going up against great riders (although Sastre was very good).

Wash your mouth out boy!

Besides, Pereiro's team was as consistently strong as Sky in Formigal.

And Kloden didn't have the strength of a NINE man team

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

Contador to attack with full Tinkoff team at beginning of stage. Valverde to follow.
Contador to win the stage with Valverde 2nd. Valverde to move into the top 10.
Quintana and Froome finish 4 mins back.
Forum to crash at the start of the Alto de Aitana.

This would be perfect

But alas, I think that Contador is too far back to make it worthwhile in trying anything extreme. Also the time trial proved that he really doesn't have the legs, sadly

 

[oronet commander]

Re:

Any estimate on how much climbing there is on this stage? Looking at the profile, my guess is ~4,000 meters of climbing (including uncategorized).

Pedro Delgado mentioned 4200 m yesterday. I've ridden many times all of the stage and if the riders want the battle may be bloody!

 

[jens_attacks]

froomey to emulate santi perez today. i hope.

probably he will keep all his watts for aitana.