2016 Vuelta a España, stage 3: Marín > Mirador de Ézaro

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

When did Froome start getting dropped for good by the 3 amigos in 2012?

All started with the TT after the rest day. Froome would have been expecting to be in red after that TT and instead lost about 20 seconds to Contador

 

[Climeon]

Am curious to see how Kwiatkowski does here. With him missing the tour, showing good form in the prep races and having a 39km tt that is right up his street I think he could put in a strong showing at this Vuelta

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Valverde is good in muritos that have a false flat in the end (5/6%). When muritos have more than 12% in the end only purito is better than contador

If only Purito was here.

That was my first thought when I saw this stage.

I'm really hoping (and honestly think he has a chance) Chaves wins. AC should just focus on not losing time. Froome needs to gain more time. There's no way his form lasts till later in the race. He needs more of a buffer.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

i guess an outsider in a late break should get this with the red for grabs as the gc's should "only" test each other and get small gaps at the most...
Atapuma ftw and red

 

[RattaKuningas]

My pick for today's stage win is obviously Contador.

 

[rghysens]

Froome to take red and take the most boring vuelta since 1995 in 3 weeks.

 

[StryderHells]

Re:

Froome to take red and take the most boring vuelta since 1995 in 3 weeks.

Even if Froome takes red I don't see him winning this Vuelta, I think the Tour guys will all be cooked by the 3rd week on these parcours

 

[claude cat]

Agreed

 

[dacooley]

chaves
contador
valverde

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

When did Froome start getting dropped for good by the 3 amigos in 2012?

All started with the TT after the rest day. Froome would have been expecting to be in red after that TT and instead lost about 20 seconds to Contador

Contador was expected to beat Froome in that ITT. It's not like it was a flat one.

 

[Oliver]

Chaves!

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

When did Froome start getting dropped for good by the 3 amigos in 2012?

All started with the TT after the rest day. Froome would have been expecting to be in red after that TT and instead lost about 20 seconds to Contador

Contador was expected to beat Froome in that ITT. It's not like it was a flat one.

No he wasn't. Froome was the main favorite for that ITT

 

[3wheeler]

Position is everything... The race to the base of the climb could be the decider as its going to be carnage 20 riders back..

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

When did Froome start getting dropped for good by the 3 amigos in 2012?

All started with the TT after the rest day. Froome would have been expecting to be in red after that TT and instead lost about 20 seconds to Contador

Contador was expected to beat Froome in that ITT. It's not like it was a flat one.

After the ITT's Froome had done that year, no, Froome was definitely expected to take some seconds on Contador.

Why do people expect Froome to beat Contador today? Contador did pretty frickin good in 2012 holding on to Rodriguez in absolute peak shape until the end. He can't bleed 10 seconds here, 10 seconds there after that TTT. Needs to go at least even here.

 

[klintE]

3 options

1 There is a breakaway and Gilbert is involved. He takes it
2. From late attack - Brambilla wins stage
3. Peloton in one piece at the foot of the mountain - Valverde battle with Chavez, like Purito and Pistolero in 2012

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Why do people expect Froome to beat Contador today? Contador did pretty frickin good in 2012 holding on to Rodriguez in absolute peak shape until the end. He can't bleed 10 seconds here, 10 seconds there after that TTT. Needs to go at least even here.

Yeah; but what we hope and expect are two different thing.. unless you're Miburo of course.
The main reason I don't see Alberto do well is his age, normally riders lose a bit of explosiveness as they get older and I feel he needs a few more days at least to get some spark and speed in his legs. If this was the third week, I might have even considered him the favorite, but alas, it's day 3.

 

[spiritualride]

Who besides Sky would try to stop a breakaway? Sky wouldn't even chase hard, right?

I'm wondering about Daniel Moreno. Won FW in 2013 and 5th in 2015, and always does very well at the Vuelta.

 

[Red Rick]

Flo, this isn't really about explosiveness, though the effort is pretty anaerobic. The climb is almost 7 minutes, so he should be fine. His performance today won't decide his Vuelta, his progression throughout the race will. Same for Froome, though you'd expect their trajectories to be the opposite of each other. The only thing to worry about is, that if he blows himself up, he's gonna drop a lot more time.

Another note, back in 2012, time differences were pretty big.

1 RODRIGUEZ OLIVER, Joaquin (KATUSHA) 4:24:32
2 CONTADOR VELASCO, Alberto (SAXO BANK-TINKOFF BANK) + 0:06
3 VALVERDE BELMONTE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR) + 0:13
4 GESINK, Robert (RABOBANK) + 0:20
5 FROOME, Christopher (SKY PROCYCLING) + 0:23
6 MORENO FERNANDEZ, Daniel (KATUSHA)
7 ANTON HERNANDEZ, Igor (EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI) + 0:27
8 ROCHE, Nicolas (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 0:31
9 NIEMIEC, Przemyslaw (LAMPRE - ISD) + 0:33
10 VERDUGO MARCOTEGUI, Gorka (EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI) + 0:36

 

[saganboss]

Re:

3 options

1 There is a breakaway and Gilbert is involved. He takes it
2. From late attack - Brambilla wins stage
3. Peloton in one piece at the foot of the mountain - Valverde battle with Chavez, like Purito and Pistolero in 2012

today is brambilla's birthday so i too hope he'll try something

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

When did Froome start getting dropped for good by the 3 amigos in 2012?

All started with the TT after the rest day. Froome would have been expecting to be in red after that TT and instead lost about 20 seconds to Contador

Contador was expected to beat Froome in that ITT. It's not like it was a flat one.

No he wasn't. Froome was the main favorite for that ITT

I'm sure he was for some, just like Contador was for some. On a course like that it's hard to pick one for the win.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Flo, this isn't really about explosiveness, though the effort is pretty anaerobic. The climb is almost 7 minutes, so he should be fine. His performance today won't decide his Vuelta, his progression throughout the race will. Same for Froome, though you'd expect their trajectories to be the opposite of each other. The only thing to worry about is, that if he blows himself up, he's gonna drop a lot more time.

Another note, back in 2012, time differences were pretty big.

Maybe explosiveness wasn't the right word. You certainly need a bit of punch to do well on these gradients. I guess punch isn't the right word either. You can't just pace yourself to the top without losing a lot of time. You need punch to get through the steepest sections, else you'll come to a halt. Surely you know what I mean

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

When did Froome start getting dropped for good by the 3 amigos in 2012?

All started with the TT after the rest day. Froome would have been expecting to be in red after that TT and instead lost about 20 seconds to Contador

Contador was expected to beat Froome in that ITT. It's not like it was a flat one.

No he wasn't. Froome was the main favorite for that ITT

I'm sure he was for some, just like Contador was for some. On a course like that it's hard to pick one for the win.

Not really, especially when you consider that Froome was just coming from a bronze in the Olympic TT, beat wiggins in the vuelta TT the previous year whereas Contador was just coming back from his suspension and hadn't raced much. Once you consider that context, it's pretty clear why Froome was favourite for that stage

 

[Orbit501]

Re:

3 options

1 There is a breakaway and Gilbert is involved. He takes it
2. From late attack - Brambilla wins stage
3. Peloton in one piece at the foot of the mountain - Valverde battle with Chavez, like Purito and Pistolero in 2012

No no no, you're not allowed to present sensible scenarios for the stage on a dedicated stage thread.

Oh no... this is the place for endless boring argumentative crap about who is the greatest GC rider from a select group of about 3.

Do you not know how things work around here ?

 

[rick james]

Will today be the first outing of the yo you dawg?

 

[klintE]

Re: Re:

No no no, you're not allowed to present sensible scenarios for the stage on a dedicated stage thread.

I'm sorry I didn't know