2016 Vuelta CQ Game

[Armchair cyclist]

Etixx, Orica and Lotto Soudal all look likely to finish with all 9 of their starters, while FdJ will bring (a maximum of) 5 riders to the finish line.

Regardless of who should have been eliminated a week ago, and without denying that we have seen some DNFs on final day parades in recent GTs, here's the analysis of how DNFs might have impinged on our teams.

39 riders have dropped out so far, 25 of them on at least one of our teams:
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel 28 teams 623 pt cost
KRUIJSWIJK Steven 21 660 1 pt earned
JANSE VAN RENSBURG Jacques 6 22 7
HAAS Nathan 5 143 10
HUZARSKI Bartosz 5 52 5
SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel 5 517 7
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor 4 174 5
KISERLOVSKI Robert 4 93
BARGUIL Warren 3 595
BATTAGLIN Enrico 3 136 7
REYNES MIMO Vicente 3 58
TAARAMÄE Rein 3 374
VANBILSEN Kenneth 3 36 2
CLARKE Simon 2 193 1
MALACARNE Davide 2 53
VAN GARDEREN Tejay 2 571 3
BEVIN Patrick 1 203
BONIFAZIO Niccolo 1 454 5
FISCHER Murilo Antonio 1 45
GONÇALVES Jose Isidro Maciel 1 524 1
HERKLOTZ Silvio 1 60
HUREL Tony 1 78
REZA Kévin 1 134 35
GILBERT Philippe 1 993 18
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 1 444 10

Number of withdrawn riders in each team:
5: Armchair_Cyclist, Crevaison, Trudgin
4: Bbass, Joelsim, Josedin, LuxembourgFinest
3: BicycleBoy, ChrisDK, Comodoro, Hakkie2, Hugo87, JustSomeGuy, Leadbelly, Murali, Rote_Laterne, Search, SemirS
2: 18Valve, BigMac, Carlo_Algatrensig, GeraintTooFast, GPBlanco, Hayabusa, Kazistuta, LightBing, LosBrolin, Postmanhat, Shalgo, Slapshot, USPostal, Vredeling, Yellow_Knight
1: AmisVelo, ArchieBoy, BluesInTheBottle, Capt_Cavman, Del1962, DJW, JosephD, Laarsland, Mellow_Velo, Minessa, Murrjt, NairoQ, Vladimir and Collective Wisdom.


%age of budget lost to riders who are not riding today:
1 ChrisDK 59.6
2 Joelsim 48.0
3 Crevaison 42.6
4 Trudgin 42.1
5 Josedin 41.4
6 Hugo87 39.5
9 LuxembourgFinest 37.9
8 BicycleBoy 38.0
7 Comodoro 38.2
10 Bbass 37.9
11 Hakkie2 37.5
12 Murali 37.3
13 JustSomeGuy 37.1
14 SemirS 37.1
19 Carlo_Algatrensig 36.6
15 GPBlanco 37.0
17 Hayabusa 36.9
18 Shalgo 36.8
16 Vredeling 36.9
20 Armchair_Cyclist 36.4
21 Postmanhat 30.7
22 Search 27.3
23 BigMac 25.8
24 Rote_Laterne 22.3
26 USPostal 21.8
27 18Valve 21.6
25 Kazistuta 21.8
28 Slapshot 21.5
30 Yellow_Knight 20.1
31 LosBrolin 20.0
32 LightBing 19.3
36 ArchieBoy 18.8
29 Capt_Cavman 20.4
33 DJW 19.0
34 JosephD 18.9
36 Laarsland 18.8
35 Mellow_Velo 18.8
41 BluesInTheBottle 17.8
40 Del1962 17.8
38 Minessa 17.9
42 Murrjt 17.8
39 NairoQ 17.9
43 Vladimir 4.8
44 Leadbelly 4.0
45 GeraintTooFast 1.8
46 AmisVelo 1.0

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Stage 21 Final precession, final scores

Green points

I am strongly minded to exclude the leader jersey points from this classification in future editions, as they unduly slant this towards those likely to be top of the main competition. And just as I was thinking that, this happens:

CORT NIELSEN Magnus 70 3 teams
BENNATI Daniele 40 0 team
MEERSMAN Gianni 25 18 teams
SBARAGLI Kristian 15 0 teams
ARNDT Nikias 10 2 teams
MANZIN Lorrenzo 7 1 team
HARDY Romain 5 0 team
RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan 3 7 teams
SELIG Rüdiger 2 1 team
PUCCIO Salvatore 1 0 team


1= Murrjt, Vredeling 95 (Nielsen and Meersman)
3 Slapshot 70 (Nielsen)
4 Laarsland 35 (Meersman, Arndt)
5 Comodoro 32 (Meersman, Manzin)
6 JosephD 28 (Meersman, Restrepo)
7 Other Meersman teams 25
20 Murali 10
21 LightBing 5
22= AmisVelo, Bbass, Hakkie2 , Joelsim, Shalgo 3
27 The rest 0


Standings Final, but still the minor competition
At the very end, and on the stage on which there are no red jersey points, the teams whose scores are thus bolstered yield to Murrjt.
1 Murrjt 742
2 NairoQ 704
3 Vladimir 640
4 Vredeling 549
5 Mellow_Velo 544
6 Minessa 528
7 Kazistuta 526
8 18Valve 522
9 AmisVelo 505
10 Del1962 480
11 BicycleBoy 456
12 Capt_Cavman 450
13 ChrisDK 443
14 Laarsland 404
15 LosBrolin 398
16 Hugo87 397
17 Josedin 387
18 Hakkie2 384
19 Rote_Laterne 375
20 Bbass 373
21 SemirS 371
22 JustSomeGuy 357
23 Leadbelly 353
24 Comodoro 349
24 DJW 349
26 ArchieBoy 339
27 Carlo_Algatrensig 333
28 Search 316
29 JosephD 312
30 Slapshot 308
31 GeraintTooFast 243
32 BigMac 220
33 Murali 211
34 Crevaison 187
35 Hayabusa 184
36 Shalgo 176
37 Postmanhat 169
38 LightBing 162
39 Yellow_Knight 154
40 BluesInTheBottle 153
41 Joelsim 143
42 Armchair_Cyclist 140
43 USPostal 62
44 Trudgin 59
45 LuxembourgFinest 56
46 GPBlanco 47
Collective_Wisdom 428

The 12 days of bonus points were worth the equivalent of a little more than 3 stage wins for the Quintana teams. Without these points, this would have looked like this:
1 Murrjt 742
2 Vredeling 549
3 Minessa 528
4 Mellow_Velo 526
4 Kazistuta 526
6 18Valve 522
7 AmisVelo 505
8 NairoQ 488
9 Del1962 480
10 Capt_Cavman 450
11 ChrisDK 425
12 Vladimir 424
13 Laarsland 404
14 LosBrolin 398
15 Hugo87 397
16 BicycleBoy 384
17 Josedin 369
18 Hakkie2 366
19 Rote_Laterne 375
20 Bbass 373

Red points
I'm no fan of these last day parades, and the underwhelming effect on the game does nothing to make me more enthusiastic:

CORT NIELSEN Magnus 70pts 3 teams
MEERSMAN Gianni 25 18
ARNDT Nikias 10 2
MANZIN Lorrenzo 7 1
RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan 3 7
SELIG Rüdiger 2 1
LATOUR Pierre 2 2
TROFIMOV Yury 2 1
GESINK Robert 1 11
...
KENNAUGH Peter -1 2
BRAMBILLA Gianluca -2 1
KÖNIG Leopold -2 13
MEINTJES Louis -2 1

1 Murrjt 96
2 Vredeling 95
3 Slapshot 70
4 Laarsland 33
5 Comodoro 32
6 JosephD 28
7 18Valve 26
7 Minessa 26
9 ArchieBoy 25
9 BicycleBoy 25
9 Capt_Cavman 25
9 Josedin 25
9 JustSomeGuy 25
9 Kazistuta 25
9 Leadbelly 25
16 Carlo_Algatrensig 24
17 Del1962 23
17 Hugo87 23
17 LosBrolin 23
20 Murali 10
21 Hakkie2 4
22 Joelsim 3
22 LightBing 3
22 Shalgo 3
25 Bbass 2
25 BigMac 2
25 Yellow_Knight 2
28 AmisVelo 1
28 ChrisDK 1
28 Crevaison 1
28 SemirS 1
28 Vladimir 1
33 Armchair_Cyclist 0
33 BluesInTheBottle 0
33 GPBlanco 0
33 LuxembourgFinest 0
33 Rote_Laterne 0
33 Trudgin 0
33 USPostal 0
40 Mellow_Velo -1
40 NairoQ -1
40 Postmanhat -1
43 DJW -2
43 GeraintTooFast -2
43 Search -2
46 Hayabusa -4
Collective_Wisdom 25

Final Standings
Murrjt gets into the top five at the last, and Capt Cavman likeways sneaks into the top ten, while Vredeling has a remarkable 6 place rise on a day of so little change.

But the outcome is as it has looked likely to be for a week:
1 Vladimir 1763
2 NairoQ 1730
3 AmisVelo 1581
4 Minessa 1434
5 Murrjt 1388
6 Mellow_Velo 1374
7 LosBrolin 1313
8 Kazistuta 1301
9 DJW 1253
10 Capt_Cavman 1244
11 Hakkie2 1242
12 Search 1224
13 Del1962 1216
14 GeraintTooFast 1186
15 SemirS 1140
16 Josedin 1121
17 Leadbelly 1109
18 ArchieBoy 1099
19 Rote_Laterne 1044
20 Laarsland 1040
21 Yellow_Knight 1031
22 Vredeling 1021
23 BicycleBoy 1008
24 JosephD 1001
25 18Valve 997
26 Slapshot 979
27 Armchair_Cyclist 972
28 ChrisDK 959
29 BluesInTheBottle 956
30 JustSomeGuy 947
31 Hugo87 882
32 Shalgo 863
33 BigMac 816
34 Carlo_Algatrensig 795
35 Bbass 778
36 Murali 737
37 GPBlanco 735
38 Comodoro 714
39 USPostal 701
40 LightBing 700
41 Postmanhat 681
42 LuxembourgFinest 663
43 Crevaison 596
44 Joelsim 575
45 Trudgin 569
46 Hayabusa 540
Collective_Wisdom 1342

Congratulations to Vladimir, and to NairoQ and Amis Velo on the podium.

Thanks to everyone for having a go: see you for the emerging riders game in late January.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

19 teams took part in my 4 short games (Spring Classics and the three GTs), and so get free entry into the
Four Seasons Championship

Greg Van Avermaet-like, Vladimir started the year winning early (top of the Classics game), and was winning again at the end (top in this Vuelta game): no surprises about who won the annual overall combination then.

Position Classics + Giro + Tour + Vuelta = Total

1 Vladimir 2378 + 701 + 909 + 1763 = 5751
2 GeraintTooFast 1807 + 1058 + 1608 + 1186 = 5659
3 Del1962 1494 + 989 + 1568 + 1216 = 5267
4 Search 1777 + 1146 + 1002 + 1224 = 5149
5 AmisVelo 1528 + 1160 + 875 + 1581 = 5144
6 Kazistuta 2043 + 840 + 904 + 1301 = 5088
7 DJW 1868 + 941 + 950 + 1253 = 5012
8 Rote_Laterne 2007 + 905 + 929 + 1044 = 4885
9 Armchair_Cyclist 1275 + 962 + 1596 + 972 = 4805
10 Murrjt 2052 + 385 + 769 + 1388 = 4594
11 Comodoro 1177 + 1256 + 1120 + 714 = 4267
12 Mellow_Velo 1633 + 576 + 577 + 1374 = 4160
13 Leadbelly 1873 + 154 + 951 + 1109 = 4087
14 Josedin 1926 + 310 + 711 + 1121 = 4068
15 LosBrolin 1333 + 660 + 741 + 1313 = 4047
16 GPBlanco 1619 + 1013 + 470 + 735 = 3837
17 JustSomeGuy 1086 + 758 + 958 + 947 = 3749
18 Bbass 1437 + 577 + 522 + 778 = 3314
19 Trudgin 930 + 380 + 681 + 569 = 2560

Collective_Wisdom 1974 + 302 + 777 + 1342 = 4395

 

[BigMac]

Congratulations to the winner and thank you for another edition of the game, Armchair!

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Some of the numbers:

Top scorers

QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 934pts 2 teams
FROOME Chris 587 1
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 347 5
YATES Simon 315 26
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto 293 35
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David 288 6
FELLINE Fabio 268 0
TALANSKY Andrew 248 14
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 245 0
MEERSMAN Gianni 212 18
GESINK Robert 206 11
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 195 1
CORT NIELSEN Magnus 186 3
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 172 0
ELISSONDE Kenny 171 2
FORMOLO Davide 155 3
BENNETT George 151 0
SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon 143 0
SCARPONI Michele 133 12
BRAMBILLA Gianluca 133 1
FRANK Mathias 131 14
KÖNIG Leopold 126 13

Top scorers by %age return
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David 303.2% 6 teams
QUEMENEUR Perrig 200.0 4
PAULINHO Sergio Miguel Moreira 150.0 6
CATTANEO Mattia 136.4 2
HERNANDEZ BLAZQUEZ Jesus 115.0 1
SCHWARZMANN Michael 101.7 1
RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan 100.0 7
DOMONT Axel 98.4 0
SILIN Egor 94.6 0
PERAUD Jean-Christophe 90.4 14
HARDY Romain 90.1 0
GESINK Robert 89.2 11
CARDIS Romain 88.2 2
SCARPONI Michele 86.4 12
YATES Simon 86.3 26
ELISSONDE Kenny 85.5 2
DOUGALL Nicolas 83.3 0
SELIG Rüdiger 82.6 1
MEERSMAN Gianni 79.1 18
FRANK Mathias 76.6 14
KÖNIG Leopold 76.4 13
WYSS Danilo 71.4 0
LAGUTIN Sergey 66.5 0
CHEVRIER Clément 65.8 0
JAUREGUI Quentin 65.2 2
FRAILE MATARRANZ Omar 63.7 5
TALANSKY Andrew 63.1 14
MORICE Julien 62.5 0
VANOTTI Alessandro 60.0 1
CORT NIELSEN Magnus 56.5 3
BENNETT George 55.5 0
WYSS Marcel 54.4 1
BIDARD François 53.6 0
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 52.6 2
KING Benjamin 50.0 0
TROFIMOV Yury 50.0 1

Green jersey points
1 QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 384 2
2 FROOME Chris 197 1
3 MEERSMAN Gianni 190 18
4 CORT NIELSEN Magnus 171 3
5 ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 155 1
6 GESINK Robert 145 11
7 FELLINE Fabio 144 0
8 VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 108 0
9 FRANK Mathias 101 14
10 DRUCKER Jempy 100 2
11 DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David 98 6
12 VAN GENECHTEN Jonas 97 0
13 LAGUTIN Sergey 95 0
13 BENNATI Daniele 95 0
13 YATES Simon 95 26
16 SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon 81 0
17 KÖNIG Leopold 80 13
18 GENIEZ Alexandre 77 6
19 KEUKELEIRE Jens 76 0
20 ARNDT Nikias 75 2
21 CALMEJANE Lilian 73 0
21 BRAMBILLA Gianluca 73 1
23 LATOUR Pierre 72 2
24 CONTI Valerio 70 0


Impeccable picks
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 934pts 2 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 347 5
YATES Simon 315 26
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David 288 6
WYSS Danilo 65 0
HARDY Romain 64 0
DOMONT Axel 63 0
SCHWARZMANN Michael 60 1
QUEMENEUR Perrig 40 4
PAULINHO Sergio Miguel Moreira 15 6


Best possible team (as far as I can find)
(Name, cost, points, picks)
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 1775 934 2
YATES Simon 365 315 26
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David 95 288 6
FELLINE Fabio 685 268 0
TALANSKY Andrew 393 248 14
WYSS Danilo 91 65 0
SCHWARZMANN Michael 59 60 1
QUEMENEUR Perrig 20 40 4
PAULINHO Sergio Miguel Moreira 10 15 6

This lot has a total score of 2233, and with a popularity score of 59, would have been the second lowest team in popularity. The least popular squad: Vladimir's.

 

[vladimir]

Thanks for the updates throughout the year Armchair! I am naturally very happy to have won both the Vuelta and the overall Of course these games are partly down to luck, but winning a CQ game with the bottom ranked team in the popularity ranking must be extremly seldom and I feel this gives the victory the extra icing on the cake!? :surprised:

 

[Armchair cyclist]

And if you want to do any further analysis, or think you can work out a better best possible team, or simply to see where your selection went wrong,the spreadsheet that did all the work is here

 

[Kazistuta]

Thank you for all your work, AC!

 

[rote_laterne]

Re:

Congratulation to double winner vladimir, big thank you to Armchair_cyclist and all participants.
I'm happy with S. Yates and particularly the rare pick Elissonde.

Thanks to everyone for having a go: see you for the emerging riders game in late January.

Great to read you'll continue with the game.

 

[vredeling]

It was a very nice game. See you next...... Giro?

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Re:

It was a very nice game. See you next...... Giro?

Plenty you can do before that.

33 riders with a total cost of 7500 for the whole year: the main game. Closing date usually just after New Year.

12-15 riders, 1st year pro or U25 and never a pro, budget 1000 pts with about the same start date and a full year duration: the Youth game.

18 riders with a lifetime CQ of less than 200 pts each (no restriction on total spend, except the logical 3582 limit) with scores tracked for 3 years: enter by the end of January. (The Emerging Riders game)

Then you have the first leg of the Four Seasons championship: Spring Classics (12 riders, 3000 pt budget, about 20 one day races from Omloop to Liege)

Then the Giro (same rules as the Vuelta) and the Tour (same rules, slightly larger budget).

You might find you need therapy after a few years of trying every game...

 

[Hakkie2]

Re: Re:

It was a very nice game. See you next...... Giro?

Plenty you can do before that.

33 riders with a total cost of 7500 for the whole year: the main game. Closing date usually just after New Year.

12-15 riders, 1st year pro or U25 and never a pro, budget 1000 pts with about the same start date and a full year duration: the Youth game.

18 riders with a lifetime CQ of less than 200 pts each (no restriction on total spend, except the logical 3582 limit) with scores tracked for 3 years: enter by the end of January. (The Emerging Riders game)

Then you have the first leg of the Four Seasons championship: Spring Classics (12 riders, 3000 pt budget, about 20 one day races from Omloop to Liege)

Then the Giro (same rules as the Vuelta) and the Tour (same rules, slightly larger budget).

You might find you need therapy after a few years of trying every game...

Not on this forum, but Cyclogame starts in a couple of days.
Similar concept as this game, but for cyclo-cross.
www.cyclogame.net

 

[Hakkie2]

Re:

Best possible team (as far as I can find)
(Name, cost, points, picks)
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 1775 934 2
YATES Simon 365 315 26
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David 95 288 6
FELLINE Fabio 685 268 0
TALANSKY Andrew 393 248 14
WYSS Danilo 91 65 0
SCHWARZMANN Michael 59 60 1
QUEMENEUR Perrig 20 40 4
PAULINHO Sergio Miguel Moreira 10 15 6

This lot has a total score of 2233, and with a popularity score of 59, would have been the second lowest team in popularity. The least popular squad: Vladimir's.

Not sure how Felline ended up in this team. The following team scored 2536 points. (Further improvements to this team are possible, I think)
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David
QUEMENEUR Perrig
SILIN Egor
GESINK Robert
YATES Simon
ELISSONDE Kenny
MEERSMAN Gianni
TALANSKY Andrew
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Re: Re:

Best possible team (as far as I can find)
(Name, cost, points, picks)
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 1775 934 2
YATES Simon 365 315 26
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David 95 288 6
FELLINE Fabio 685 268 0
TALANSKY Andrew 393 248 14
WYSS Danilo 91 65 0
SCHWARZMANN Michael 59 60 1
QUEMENEUR Perrig 20 40 4
PAULINHO Sergio Miguel Moreira 10 15 6

This lot has a total score of 2233, and with a popularity score of 59, would have been the second lowest team in popularity. The least popular squad: Vladimir's.

Not sure how Felline ended up in this team. The following team scored 2536 points. (Further improvements to this team are possible, I think)
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David
QUEMENEUR Perrig
SILIN Egor
GESINK Robert
YATES Simon
ELISSONDE Kenny
MEERSMAN Gianni
TALANSKY Andrew
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander

Felline ended up there because I made a quick, albeit flawed, attempt to find the best permutation.

But yes, that group fits the budget with 24 points to spare, for a total, as you say, of 2536, thanks. But still only three of the Collective Wisdom picks make that group.

 

[Hakkie2]

This is I believe the most popular winning team. It would have been possible to just beat Vladimir with this team (1768 vs 1763).
It's a team with Contador!

Peraud
Yates
Frank
Meersman
Talansky
Contador
Gesink
Scarponi
Konig

157 selections in total, for a cost of 'only' 3190 CQ.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

It is good to know that one can win without having the race winner (even when that winner has racked up 216 leader jersey points as well), and that our popular selections were not universally hopeless: good work.

 

[shalgo]

Re: Re:

Feel ur pain Shalgo. Let's announce a cooperation: Team Shalgo-Vredeling.

That is a generous offer, considering how well your team is doing. At least Frank's 5 points nearly doubled my point total today.

If you were to replace Lopez, Kruijswijk, Vervaeke and Pardilla from Vredeling's team, and replace them with Contador, Talansky, Restrepo and Peraud from Shalgo's selection, you would still be within budget, and would be in fourth place.

The two of you are among 10 teams that have lost both Kruijswijk and Lopez: there are only 7 teams that has not suffered the loss of one or other of them (AmisVelo, BigMac, GeraintTooFast, Leadbelly, Rote_Laterne, USPostal, Vladimir).

I went back and examined this hypothetical Vredeling/Shalgo team (Contador, Talansky, Restrepo, Peraud, Yates, Hermans, Meersman, Cort Nielsen, and Geniez). If I am reading the final workbook correctly, this team would have ended up with 1600 points--a podium finish, but still not good enough to win.