2017 Flèche Wallone - April 19th - 200.5km

[frisenfruitig]

Re: Re:

Kwiatkowski.

His first attack in AGR to bridge to the leaders was ridiculously strong - on a steep bit of a hard climb. Valverde, GVA + the climbers couldn't go with him.

The Mur is much harder though and it takes a different kind of effort imo. Valverde has looked 'meh' in the AGR before yet still won the FW and LBL. I don't know if I've ever seen Kwiatkowski win (or come close) on a finish like this before.

I would say that second in Flèche Wallonne in 2014 was pretty close on a finish pretty similar to today's.

He came in second? Huh. Totally forgot about that . Still think Valverde is better suited for that climb though.

 

[tobydawq]

No, sorry... I just checked, and he was third. Dan Martin was second. But he was still pretty close (although he conceded four seconds to Valverde).

I don't se him winning to the either, though.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Kwiatkowski.

His first attack in AGR to bridge to the leaders was ridiculously strong - on a steep bit of a hard climb. Valverde, GVA + the climbers couldn't go with him.

The Mur is much harder though and it takes a different kind of effort imo. Valverde has looked 'meh' in the AGR before yet still won the FW and LBL. I don't know if I've ever seen Kwiatkowski win (or come close) on a finish like this before.

I would say that second in Flèche Wallonne in 2014 was pretty close on a finish pretty similar to today's.

He came in second? Huh. Totally forgot about that . Still think Valverde is better suited for that climb though.

I think it was quite a distant 3rd place he finished from memory; never was really in contention for the win. The problem that explosive riders like Kwiatkowksi and Martin have is that Valverde has worked out the climb in the last few years. He basically rides it as a three minute max effort, keeping power pretty steady the whole way. So, it seems the only way to beat him in a straight fight on the Mur is to have better three minute w/kg than him, which Kwiatkowski almost certainly doesn't have. Valverde's probably just going to ignore an early attack. I guess the other way would be to use some dark arts and use a couple of team-mates to box in Valverde towards the bottom; but I'm sure he's alert to something like that.

 

[meat puppet]

Re: Re:

Kwiatkowski.

His first attack in AGR to bridge to the leaders was ridiculously strong - on a steep bit of a hard climb. Valverde, GVA + the climbers couldn't go with him.

Agreed. However, in FW I think MK must go early and drop Valverde more than 150m to go. Of course I could be wrong and MK just outkicks the ole Don.

Why would Kwiat have to drop Valverde early? More like the other way around. Anyway, tactics hardly matter. The strongest will win.

Because Valverde tends to excel at the FW end kick. I know that Kwiat would probably win a flat sprint against him, but in FW things might be different.

 

[Velolover2]

Valverde is stronger because it's a different race. They are a bit fresher for the final than in Amstel. It's not as long or marathon-like which suits Kwiatkowski more.

I think Henao has a much better chance than Kwai but he has to attack with about 300-500m to go. Same with Martin.

 

[jens_attacks]

Henao must attack on cherave

Kiwi will do the rest.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Henao must attack on cherave

Kiwi will do the rest.

Very unlikely. Henao will attack with about 400m to go on the Mur while Kwai will try to follow Valverde's wheels for the sprint.

If they want to win, that's the most successful tactic. A boring one, but the most likely.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Henao must attack on cherave

Kiwi will do the rest.

What's the point of Henao attacking on the Cherave? Movistar will probably have most of the team to reel him back in, so it will cost Valverde nothing and will just mean that Henao has no chance on the Mur.

If anything I think it would be better to send Kwiatkowksi on the Cherave. He can potentially open up a gap onthe descent and flattish run in to the Mur with his rouleur skills, and have Henao - the better climber - ready to mark Valverde on the Mur.

 

[jens_attacks]

Boooooooo

I know i know it's silly. I hope valverde will open his mouth on huy that's all

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Boooooooo

I know i know it's silly. I hope valverde will open his mouth on huy that's all

Yeah, it's more than a little disappointing to have so little anticipation about what could have before a big race like this. I like Valverde a lot as a rider, but it's never great to see a rider literally odds on to win a classic before the start.

A real shame about Gilbert in particular; he would surely have tried something from long, especially given the other options that Quickstep have for the Mur itself. And it could have worked given his form.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Kwiatkowski.

His first attack in AGR to bridge to the leaders was ridiculously strong - on a steep bit of a hard climb. Valverde, GVA + the climbers couldn't go with him.

Agreed. However, in FW I think MK must go early and drop Valverde more than 150m to go. Of course I could be wrong and MK just outkicks the ole Don.

Why would Kwiat have to drop Valverde early? More like the other way around. Anyway, tactics hardly matter. The strongest will win.

I would need to be very generous to say that he would beat him 1 time out of 10 on such finish if they're arriving together!

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Henao must attack on cherave

Kiwi will do the rest.

Very unlikely. Henao will attack with about 400m to go on the Mur while Kwai will try to follow Valverde's wheels for the sprint.

If they want to win, that's the most successful tactic. A boring one, but the most likely.

Quick step tried that last year with a slightly faster rider on this kind of finish, but it didn't worked. I think the best chance is Kwiat attack on Cherave, alongside Wellens if possible. Or if that doesn't work, maybe Kwiat attack right from the bottom of the Mur, with Henao waiting. The key is to make Valverde himself chase on the Mur, then Henao has a decent shot in the last 300-400m

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Henao must attack on cherave

Kiwi will do the rest.

Very unlikely. Henao will attack with about 400m to go on the Mur while Kwai will try to follow Valverde's wheels for the sprint.

If they want to win, that's the most successful tactic. A boring one, but the most likely.

Quick step tried that last year with a slightly faster rider on this kind of finish, but it didn't worked. I think the best chance is Kwiat attack on Cherave, alongside Wellens if possible. Or if that doesn't work, maybe Kwiat attack right from the bottom of the Mur, with Henao waiting. The key is to make Valverde himself chase on the Mur, then Henao has a decent shot in the last 300-400m

Nah, as another poster mentioned, it's all about a 3 min W/kg effort here, so if Valverde really is the best at that, that tactic won't work because drafting is completely insignificant on the Mur. A Kwiatkowski Wellens attack on the Cherave is probably a better idea.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Henao must attack on cherave

Kiwi will do the rest.

Very unlikely. Henao will attack with about 400m to go on the Mur while Kwai will try to follow Valverde's wheels for the sprint.

If they want to win, that's the most successful tactic. A boring one, but the most likely.

Quick step tried that last year with a slightly faster rider on this kind of finish, but it didn't worked. I think the best chance is Kwiat attack on Cherave, alongside Wellens if possible. Or if that doesn't work, maybe Kwiat attack right from the bottom of the Mur, with Henao waiting. The key is to make Valverde himself chase on the Mur, then Henao has a decent shot in the last 300-400m

Nah, as another poster mentioned, it's all about a 3 min W/kg effort here, so if Valverde really is the best at that, that tactic won't work because drafting is completely insignificant on the Mur. A Kwiatkowski Wellens attack on the Cherave is probably a better idea.

Exactly. I doubt very much Valverde will 'chase' on the Mur whatever happens. He's shown in the last years that he knows the fastest and best way to ride is a pretty steady 3 min all out effort. Doing that he has been unbeatable - by quite a distance. It would be a major tactical error to start chasing down attacks and basically doing the climb as a series of short intervals, when he has already stumbleld upon the winning formula.

 

[frisenfruitig]

People have tried to surprise Valverde before by attacking at the bottom of the climb etc. Doesn't work if he's in good form, he just measures his effort knowing no one is capable of matching him. All he has to do is stick to his own pace, guys who attack early in that climb drop back by themselves anyway.

 

[DFA123]

I wonder if a group of strong rouleur climbers will try to go on the penultimate pass of the Mur. The racing has been aggressive this season and guys like Wellens, Kwiatkowski, Majka, Kreuziger, Matthews, Vakoc - who have little chance on the final climb - might have a decent chance of staying away if 3 or 4 of them get away and work well together.

Of course, Movistar will be aware of this and will drive a really hard pace up every pass of the Mur, so perhaps a surprise attack on a descent or lesser climb could be better. Surely these kind of riders can't just wait until the final climb just to get Valverded again. Someone has to try something earlier, right? :Neutral:

 

[frisenfruitig]

Re:

I wonder if a group of strong rouleur climbers will try to go on the penultimate pass of the Mur. The racing has been aggressive this season and guys like Wellens, Kwiatkowski, Majka, Kreuziger, Matthews, Vakoc - who have little chance on the final climb - might have a decent chance of staying away if 3 or 4 of them get away and work well together.

Of course, Movistar will be aware of this and will drive a really hard pace up every pass of the Mur, so perhaps a surprise attack on a descent or lesser climb could be better. Surely these kind of riders can't just wait until the final climb just to get Valverded again. Someone has to try something earlier, right? :Neutral:

I wouldn't count on it tbh, I'm expecting a snooze fest. Then again I said the same before the AGR so what do I know.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Kwiatkowski.

His first attack in AGR to bridge to the leaders was ridiculously strong - on a steep bit of a hard climb. Valverde, GVA + the climbers couldn't go with him.

Agreed. However, in FW I think MK must go early and drop Valverde more than 150m to go. Of course I could be wrong and MK just outkicks the ole Don.

Why would Kwiat have to drop Valverde early? More like the other way around. Anyway, tactics hardly matter. The strongest will win.

I would need to be very generous to say that he would beat him 1 time out of 10 on such finish if they're arriving together!

Kwiat would beat Valverde 1 times out of 10 in a sprint on a 4-5% slope?? If Valverde is stronger, then yes of course, cuz like I said, the strongest will win. But theoretically speaking, when they're equally strong with 150m to go, Kwiat wins most of the times.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Kwiatkowski.

His first attack in AGR to bridge to the leaders was ridiculously strong - on a steep bit of a hard climb. Valverde, GVA + the climbers couldn't go with him.

Agreed. However, in FW I think MK must go early and drop Valverde more than 150m to go. Of course I could be wrong and MK just outkicks the ole Don.

Why would Kwiat have to drop Valverde early? More like the other way around. Anyway, tactics hardly matter. The strongest will win.

I would need to be very generous to say that he would beat him 1 time out of 10 on such finish if they're arriving together!

Kwiat would beat Valverde 1 times out of 10 in a sprint on a 4-5% slope?? If Valverde is stronger, then yes of course, cuz like I said, the strongest will win. But theoretically speaking, when they're equally strong with 150m to go, Kwiat wins most of the times.

It's not just a 4-5% slope though; it's a 4-5% slope after 1km at 10%. I'm struggling to recall Kwiatkowski winning any sprint in those kind of circumstances. He's definitely a fast sprinter on the flat from a small group, but it's difficult to recall him doing anything similar on a proper uphill finish. I think he might be a bit heavy and lacks the acceleration on those kind of slopes.

Valverde, by contrast, has been winning 5+ races a year on uphill sprint finishes throughout his career. I think, of all riders in the last few years, only a peak Purito could come close to challenging him on this kind of finish.

 

[tobydawq]

Sprinting on a 4-5 % slope normally has nothing to do with doing it at the top of the Mur de Huy, though. After having gone above threshold for three minutes the amount of anaerobic energy left will be determining the outcome (if they are together). On a normal 4-5 % finish those energy reserves will normally not be depleted at all so you can't compare these two situations at all.

 

[Flamin]

@DFA

Yes yes I know. Like I said, it's just theoretically speaking that IF Kwiat manages to go into the final 150m equally fresh than Valverde, he'll win most of the times. Practically, this is indeed not very likely to happen because of that steep previous km.

 

[Volderke]

It is too steep for Kwiat. He needs to go on Cherave with Wellens.

But before that happens, team mates of both need to go on the climb before, so Wellens and Kwiat each have team mates going to Huy. If not, they will barely have 20-30 seconds at Huy after all out effort from Cherave, and that is not enough.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

It is too steep for Kwiat. He needs to go on Cherave with Wellens.

But before that happens, team mates of both need to go on the climb before, so Wellens and Kwiat each have team mates going to Huy. If not, they will barely have 20-30 seconds at Huy after all out effort from Cherave, and that is not enough.

I think Kwiat needs to go earlier than Cherave. Sky should try to set up a serious move 25-30km from the finish - if some other strong guys join him then the move has an outside chance of working. If not, it will at least make Movistar chase hard for quite a long time. Then someone like Rosa could go on the Cherave and there might be no-one left from Movistar with the strength to pull him back, so Valverde could even be forced to work a bit before the Mur.

And, most importantly of all, it would make for an exciting race to watch!

 

[DFA123]

Re:

@DFA

Yes yes I know. Like I said, it's just theoretically speaking that IF Kwiat manages to go into the final 150m equally fresh than Valverde, he'll win most of the times. Practically, this is indeed not very likely to happen because of that steep previous km.

OK, fair enough. To be honest, I'm not sure personally that Kwiatkowski would win on 5% slope most of the time. Valverde still has a big acceleration advantage, starting a hill sprint from a low speed, giving that he's about 7kg lighter. And he wins these kind of finishes all the time - I'm struggling to remember Kwiatkowksi winning any sprint on anything more than about 2%.

 

[Scarponi]

Why didn't Valverde win this more in the 2000s?