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2017 Giro d'Italia, Stage 2: Olbia > Tortolì 221 km

Preview from Eshnar

Eshnar said:
STAGE 2: Olbia - Tortolì 221 km

START TIME: 11.40 CEST

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Technical Overview:
The first Saturday presents a long and odd medium mountain stage, where the peloton will face tough terrain the whole day. Starting from Olbia, the first 62 km will be ascending false flat, full of ups and downs, with two serious ramps: the first, starting at km 11, features 2.2 km at 6.2%, while the second is the one topping at Sa Serra, after 4 km at 6.5%. The road continues with some rolling terrain until km 90, where a pretty long descent, quite technical but on a nice and wide road, will bring the riders at the foot of the first categorized climb of this stage. The climb to Nuoro (GPM3, 10.5 km at 3.9%) is a bit tougher than indicated by its average gradient, since it flattens out at the top, while the first part is steeper. After 33 km of more rolling terrain, the peloton will reach the second and final climb of the day, Genna Silana (GPM2, 19.6 km at 3.2%). Well, to be honest it is more a false flat rather than a proper climb, let alone a proper GPM2. However, it's long and it does hide some good ramps. The descent is similar to the ascent, and it is demanding only for short sections at the top and at the bottom. The final 9 km are pan flat, the only ones of this stage.

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The Climbs:
Nuoro GPM3
It is the first part of the climb shown below, just up to Nuoro, that is.
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Genna Silana GPM2
Two 4-5% ramps divided and followed by false flat sections. The official climb starts in Dorgali, but the road goes uphill since way earlier, here is the complete profile, thanks to Cyclingcols.com
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What to expect:
Again, very hard to call, but this time I can rule out a full bunch sprint. I do expect a reduced bunch sprint, something similar to stage 3 of the Giro 2015, and we might even be lucky and get something more similar to stage 3 of the Giro 2013. Breakaways have of course more than a chance here, but in recent times they haven't been lucky with this kind of stage at the very beginning of a Giro. GC action is very unlikely.

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Re:

Netserk said:
I think at least one team will go ballistic on Genna Silana, and it's not unlikely that a group could get away.

There are 50km to go from the top of what is an extremely long drag. Fatigue won't have set in yet and there will be a large number of riders who feel that they have at least a slight shot at the pink jersey (especially after today). I see it as a war of attrition leading to a reduced field sprint. Gaviria, Greipel and Modolo could be strong enough here. I'm not sure about Nizzolo (and he's probably not quite up to 100% race fitness yet). I don't think Ewan will be there at the finish.

I'll be wrong again and go for Gaviria.
 
Well, Gaviria didn't look good today. Unless he has an abnormally high maximal pulse rate or something was wrong with the data we saw, he looked to be having a hard time on the climbs today and in the finish he didn't have many matches to burn. And the ones he had, he burned to get a good position which rendered him completely hapless when the sprint commenced.

The last climb in tomorrow's stage is very hard to call, though. But it will be a head wind on the climb (and a quite strong one at that) so combined with the very mellow gradient, I can't really see other sprinters than Mareczko and Pelucchi being dropped and I don't think anybody will try to wreak havoc on the last climb since it really isn't fit for doing that.

It is a very long stage though and clearly tougher than today's so it's likely that more of the sprinters will be more tired in the end. But I have to go with Ewan - he looked impressive today and tomorrow he will have a massive advantage since there will be a headwind on the finishing straight. My second biggest favorite is Modolo since he is the best climber of the sprinters (currently) which should ensure that he is closer to peak sprinting level than the others come the finale.
 
Re:

tobydawq said:
Well, Gaviria didn't look good today. Unless he has an abnormally high maximal pulse rate or something was wrong with the data we saw, he looked to be having a hard time on the climbs today and in the finish he didn't have many matches to burn. And the ones he had, he burned to get a good position which rendered him completely hapless when the sprint commenced.

The last climb in tomorrow's stage is very hard to call, though. But it will be a head wind on the climb (and a quite strong one at that) so combined with the very mellow gradient, I can't really see other sprinters than Mareczko and Pelucchi being dropped and I don't think anybody will try to wreak havoc on the last climb since it really isn't fit for doing that.

It is a very long stage though and clearly tougher than today's so it's likely that more of the sprinters will be more tired in the end. But I have to go with Ewan - he looked impressive today and tomorrow he will have a massive advantage since there will be a headwind on the finishing straight. My second biggest favorite is Modolo since he is the best climber of the sprinters (currently) which should ensure that he is closer to peak sprinting level than the others come the finale.

Ewan NOT particularly confident of tomorrow in his post-race comments. Look more to stg 3
 
I like this stage - but as mentioned previously - the field lacks some good puncheurs BUT there is always someone up to the task. Astana is a certainty to send men - either Tira or Lulu, then teams like CCC, Bardiani & Gazprom- even Lotto - will be looking to get the most out of stages like this to make their participation worthy & successful.