2017 Giro d'Italia, Stage 4: Cefalú - Etna 181 km

[Escarabajo]

I don't think much will happen. If there is headwind the stage will be even more tamed.

Maybe one of the Cannondales to take it from a breakaway.

 

[spiritualride]

Re:

Alex, interesting call on Thomas. He might be eager to attack. '

Really cool to have a serious MTF so early. It's a good mix because some riders will peak early in the race, some will peak late. Mixes things up. I think there are about 9 riders with a realistic chance of winning the GC ... Etna will be really big at showing who really has a chance.

Most important for Nibs is to be in pink on the end of the last day in Milano so I think he will not initiate any move

By following another rider, all you do is ensure that you will never gain time on them, and that the only thing that can happen is that you lose time when they drop you. Though maybe Nibali isn't expecting his form to be there yet and is hoping to ride conservatively until the last week.

 

[ferryman]

I'll be more than surprised if Nairo does not test his legs on Etna.

 

[HelloDolly]

Thomas will go for this...no way is Quitana going to fly up it...he is waiting for final week and top form to keep for the Tour
He will follow


Also Sicily is not Aru's Island its Nibali's Island ....Aru is Sardinian

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Alex, interesting call on Thomas. He might be eager to attack. '

Really cool to have a serious MTF so early. It's a good mix because some riders will peak early in the race, some will peak late. Mixes things up. I think there are about 9 riders with a realistic chance of winning the GC ... Etna will be really big at showing who really has a chance.

Most important for Nibs is to be in pink on the end of the last day in Milano so I think he will not initiate any move

By following another rider, all you do is ensure that you will never gain time on them, and that the only thing that can happen is that you lose time when they drop you. Though maybe Nibali isn't expecting his form to be there yet and is hoping to ride conservatively until the last week.

Etna is not a place were Nibali can gain time on Quintana. A wise decision would be to respond to Nairo's attacks, if they come, try to loose as little time as possible, seize unexpected opportunities in future stages, gain a little in the TT and go berserk in the last week. But he is an instinctive and aggressive rider, even if he hasn't got the legs so anything can happen really.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Nibali is also the kind of rider proud enough not to let the break go and give himself the opportunity to win on Etna and wear Rosa in Sardegna.

I don't think he'll abandon the Giro just to fly up and ride around in pink on Aru's island

I don't know... heard there's a lot of beef between them

Yeah in the grapevine I assume? If anything they apparently get along really well since last year.

 

[lenric]

Still too soon I think. But it might be useful for some riders, especially for Landa. He has to do something as soon as he can to bury Thomas, or, at least, to win a comfortable amount of time before the ITT.

If he has the legs, I can see him winning time, along with Quintana, from everybody else.

 

[Jspear]

Quintana and Nibbes will just follow the threatening attacks. I'm sure Landa will try something. Surely he knows he has to use every mtf to gain time. Pinot for the win.

 

[42x16ss]

A secondary GC rider will take this from either a break or attack just before Etna, probably someone like Formolo, Rolland or Jungels. If De Ghendt was riding I'd say the stage and timing suits him perfectly.

 

[hfer07]

This is the kind of stage in the first week of a GT that Contador is sooo missed



anyways...... I expect either a breakaway winner or Landa/Pinot/G to out sprint the rest of the GC contenders with no gaps whatsoever....

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

Still too soon I think. But it might be useful for some riders, especially for Landa. He has to do something as soon as he can to bury Thomas, or, at least, to win a comfortable amount of time before the ITT.

If he has the legs, I can see him winning time, along with Quintana, from everybody else.

Quite possibly.

Or I'm thinking of a 2007 Tignes scenario, where a group of interesting riders get up the road early on Etna, and then Landa brings the main group back up Kloden style, only to be forced to sit up and wait for Thomas when G cracks Vino style.

Forum volcanic explosion

 

[Kafviar]

Re:

A secondary GC rider will take this from either a break or attack just before Etna, probably someone like Formolo, Rolland or Jungels. If De Ghendt was riding I'd say the stage and timing suits him perfectly.

Do you think they will let Jungels go on the attack? Im not so sure.

 

[Oliver]

Bahrein would have no problem with the maglia rosa so early, they are riding anyway (see last days), which it was not necessary i believe, they better save some energy for later. I would be epic to see Nibali winning @ etna and taking pink, but I believe it won't happen.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

A secondary GC rider will take this from either a break or attack just before Etna, probably someone like Formolo, Rolland or Jungels. If De Ghendt was riding I'd say the stage and timing suits him perfectly.

Do you think they will let Jungels go on the attack? Im not so sure.

Formolo could finish above Jungels. He is in great climbing form at the moment. But I think Quintana and co will let then go.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Nibali is also the kind of rider proud enough not to let the break go and give himself the opportunity to win on Etna and wear Rosa in Sardegna.

I don't think he'll abandon the Giro just to fly up and ride around in pink on Aru's island

I don't know... heard there's a lot of beef between them

Yeah in the grapevine I assume? If anything they apparently get along really well since last year.

It was a joke about how everyone keeps on talking about how Nibali and x rider don't get along

 

[Jungle Cycle]

curios to see how Dumoulin will perform. especially this early..

 

[Valv.Piti]

Rumours saying it will be a pretty big headwind. I don't know whether you have the standout climbers like in 2011, at this point in the race, to still light up the race...

 

[Climbing]

If there is the usual headwind on Etna it won't be easy to attack.
I think a breakaway has a very decent shot here, unless some GC contender feels very good.

There are some rumors of trying to test Quintana early on in the race, considering his form might be not 100% if he's serious about the double.

 

[Volderke]

Re:

If there is the usual headwind on Etna it won't be easy to attack.
I think a breakaway has a very decent shot here, unless some GC contender feels very good.

There are some rumors of trying to test Quintana early on in the race, considering his form might be not 100% if he's serious about the double.

Where are those rumours about Quintana? Sounds a bit optimistic to test Quintana's shape on one of the hardest uphill finishes, especially because he did really well in his first competition ride uphill in Asturias.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think we'll see very small time gaps and a sprint between the favorites. Yates, Zakarin, Pinot and Thomas to battle it out. I wouldn't even rule out someone like Rui Costa taking the stage win.

 

[fauniera]

I don't quite understand why so many think that not much will happen. This is a seriously hard climb after all. What's the reasoning behind the "small time gaps" theory?

 

[markene2]

I think Landa will go berserk tomorrow, G to lose quite a bit of time, Quintana and Zakarin to do the best of the rest.

 

[Climbing]

Re: Re:

If there is the usual headwind on Etna it won't be easy to attack.
I think a breakaway has a very decent shot here, unless some GC contender feels very good.

There are some rumors of trying to test Quintana early on in the race, considering his form might be not 100% if he's serious about the double.

Where are those rumours about Quintana? Sounds a bit optimistic to test Quintana's shape on one of the hardest uphill finishes, especially because he did really well in his first competition ride uphill in Asturias.

It's just a rumor, though it was reported by RAI journalists "en passant" during the second stage I think.
Anyway I expect some GC riders to drop time, especially since it's so early and quite demanding.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I don't quite understand why so many think that not much will happen. This is a seriously hard climb after all. What's the reasoning behind the "small time gaps" theory?

First mountain stage and the wind conditions.

 

[Krokro]

I don't quite understand why so many think that not much will happen. This is a seriously hard climb after all. What's the reasoning behind the "small time gaps" theory?

Because it's still early and we dont really know everyone form/feeling. Moreover this climb seems terrible that early, it can frighten big gc teams.
Plus probable headwind. Riders might be conservative as usually on high-expectations mountain finishes. Watch MTF of previous GTs where we expected mayhem and nothing happened at the end of the day.

@TankEngine Im not saying that they are gonna attack stupidely but knowing Zakarin and his time deficit already im saying he might try something. Just some assumption for an unpredictable stage.