2018 La Fleche Wallonne

[ebandit]

don't care about anyone else but I love this race

the level of anticipation as the last km is entered!

ok who can beat valverde?......alaphillipe?

Mark L

what would ya expect other than a slimmed down race thread from dabandit.....

 

[Blanco]

Philippe Gilbert and Michal Kwiatkowski to try long range, but Valverde to win.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm really not sure

Whether te bet one or both of my kidneys on Valverde

 

[LaFlorecita]

1. Valverde
2. Teuns
3. Alaphilippe
4. SL Henao
5. Vuillermoz

Or... Wellens from a distance

 

[Laplaz]

Finally the uphill Scheldeprijs! But Valverde will win this with one leg unfortunately.

 

[SafeBet]

Bananito can beat Valverde.

 

[El Pistolero]

If this was raced with the same attitude as a cobbled classic Valverde would struggle to win here. Hopefully the AGR has taught them that anticipating can pave the way to victory.

 

[Velolover2]

They need to add Triple Mur de Monty and Citadelle De Namur next time to make it more possible for a strong breakaway of climbers to make it to the finish.

I'm fine with Mur being the final climb but if they added those two climbs, it would be much easier for the break to have a chance. And FW would still be the official Muro-stage race since both Triple Mur de Monty and Citadelle De Namur are short, ultra-steep climbs.

I have climbed both and especially the Monty climb took the tool on me. Also, the penultimate climb needs to go. It doesn't add any excitement for the race. Narrow roads before the Mur would have been a better idea.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Valverde will win and hold his breathe from the start of the climb to the finish line.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Valverde will win this riding the last ascent of Huy backwards.

 

[WheelofGear]

If Bernal is ok, he could get as high as 2nd (behind Valverde of course).

 

[rghysens]

Re:

They need to add Triple Mur de Monty and Citadelle De Namur next time to make it more possible for a strong breakaway of climbers to make it to the finish.

I'm fine with Mur being the final climb but if they added those two climbs, it would be much easier for the break to have a chance. And FW would still be the official Muro-stage race since both Triple Mur de Monty and Citadelle De Namur are short, ultra-steep climbs.

I have climbed both and especially the Monty climb took the tool on me. Also, the penultimate climb needs to go. It doesn't add any excitement for the race. Narrow roads before the Mur would have been a better idea.

Both climbs are about 35km from Huy, shortest distance. As long as the finish will be on the Mur de Huy, no course change can prevent it from being an uphill bunch sprint. Probably more so because of the attitude of the peloton than because of the course.

BTW, the usual route to the citadelle de Namur isn't that steep (5-6% from my memory).

And stating the obvious:

5*) Alejandro Valverde
3*) Julian Alaphilippe,
2*) S. Henao, R. Bardet, Dylan Theuns
1*) Kwiatkowski, D.Martin, V. Nibali, Kreuziger

 

[liamito]

Re:

If Bernal is ok, he could get as high as 2nd (behind Valverde of course).

He doesn't even start.

 

[Sestriere]

Without A. Yates and Bernal I don't see anyone with the necessary punch and climbing ability to succeed with an attack from 5-600 m out. Assuming Valverde will just ride a high pace at the front to control everything, that is(It has worked for him the last few years, so why would he change that?) However, I could see Alaphilippe beat him in a sprint (maybe about 20% chance).
Everyone else has to create chaos on the penultimate Mur. With 7 men teams, Movistar could lose out in a tactical situation which is the best chance for everyone not named Alaphilippe.

 

[hrotha]

It says a lot that instead of getting a race profile we only get the profile of the last climb and nobody notices/cares.

 

[Netserk]

Valverde will take the lead with 600m to go and control the pace before he launches his sprint with 200m to go and sits up the last 50m.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Valverde will take the lead with 600m to go and control the pace before he launches his sprint with 200m to go and sits up the last 50m.

Its funny, it has looked progressively easier for him from 2014 and onwards. I say sitting up the last 60m this time around.

 

[Asero831]

5 star for AV
the rest one star

 

[Netserk]

He could at least show some panache and do a Simeoni on the line. Or get off and kiss the finish line. He will have plenty of time.

 

[loge1884]

it's somewhat shamefull, that a soon to be 38yrs old is the most explosive and dynamic guy on a short but steep climb ... but honestly I can't see anyone challenging Valverde on this one .... maybe Alaphilippe if he would concentrate on racing rather than waving his hands around, trying to direct others to pull (after having hardly been 3sec in the wind) and hitting his bars ,,,

 

[Valanga]

Re:

Philippe Gilbert and Michal Kwiatkowski to try long range, but Valverde to win.

This is not a cobbled classic. People don't do long range attacks in hilly classics -they don't even try-, you wait in the bunch as long as possible.
You already had it in Amstel (230k recreational, 30k racing) and the closer the final hill to the finish line, the shorter the racing.

 

[Durden93]

You can get Alaphilippe at 5/1 odds. Would be a worth a shot if I were a gambler.

 

[Koronin]

Unless something crazy happens Valverde wins. Wouldn't be shocked if like 2 years ago he wants to be on the front of the peloton at the start of the final climb up the Mur de Huy. He can control that climb from the front.

I agree with Valv.Piti that it does seem to get easier for him each year since 2014. I think part of that is this race specifically he's got the majority of the peloton beat before they ever start the race. There have been riders the last two years asking why they can't just give Valverde the trophy and not bother racing.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

1. Valverde
2. Teuns
3. Alaphilippe
4. SL Henao
5. Vuillermoz

Or... Wellens from a distance

At least I'm not the only one who's hyping Teuns for this race.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Valverde is the favourite quite obviously, but sooner or later someone like Alaphilippe, Martin or Teuns will get him. He’s old. Maybe this year, maybe next, but it will happen.