2018 Paris - Roubaix

[Eyeballs Out]

I think most of the field will be watching the wrong Quickstepper. Terpstra is the strongest but Lampaert is the big danger rather than Gilbert or Stybar

 

[jfazendeiro]

My list of outsiders:
Cort Nielsen
Boasson Hagen
Dylan Groenewegen
Nils Politt
Søren Krag Andersen
Adrien Petit
S. Devolder
Hugo Hofstetter

 

[blaxland]

Re: Re:

No clear favourite this year(besides quickstep team)so many riders have a chance to win.would like to see Wout van aert and Mads Pedersen both finish top 3 but more likely gilbert or Sagan.also hoping Trentin and Demare have solid performances today.cant wait for the start..

What happened to Trentin in Ronde? Don't think I saw him once.

Yeah your right but i think Roubaix is a race that suits j
his talents more..(good sprint)

 

[Jungle Cycle]

so, no one for any Sky at any decisive move or the final selection....

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

Sagan can ride a tricycle and he will still be the favoured rider in pretty much all races he enters. Kinda laughable how much belief people have in him

He's probably the only cyclist that is actually a national hero. As in, the most famous global celebrity that his country has ever produced (admittedly from a very modern country, but still...). I think that's why so many of his home fans get very defensive about him, and also the reason why he gets so much hype and attention - compared to what his performances deserve.

If he was Belgian he'd just be lumped in alongside Gilbert and GVA as very good one day racers. But he has this huge media train and fanbase following his every move because of his celebrity status. And a hugely visible presence means a lot of people bet on him, and his odds come tumbling down to be incredibly unrealistic of his actual chances.

He is the Harlem Globetrotters of cycling.

To be fair, he has won the WC 3 times in a row and done very well at the Tour over the years. He’d be more than just another good rider, no matter which country he’s from.

 

[The Barb]

Re:

Outside of QS I would be tempted to pick Naesen. He can't possible have been 100% in Flanders if even taking part was in doubt till so late and still did well. Another week to get into peak shape I expect he'll be very strong.

I agree. I thought his ride at Flanders was exceptional in the circumstances.

I also like that:

(a) I recall him saying that he thought Paris-Roubaix suits him better than Flanders (even though results so far don't really support this); and

(b) He has a decent enough finishing kick if it comes down to a small group in the velodrome, as it often does. Sure, he wouldn't outsprint Sagan or GVA but I'd back him to beat, for example, Terpstra or Stybar.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Race forecast/current condition of cobbles?

 

[Breh]

Heart: Philippe Gilbert
Head: I don't care

 

[The Barb]

Re:

I think most of the field will be watching the wrong Quickstepper. Terpstra is the strongest but Lampaert is the big danger rather than Gilbert or Stybar

You could be right but I suspect Lampaert will be used as the workhorse to bring back other attacks rather than to ride for himself. He's had his moment in the sun already this season, as has Terpstra, so I suspect the QS riders who will be given the best opportunities will most likely be Stybar and Gilbert, both of whom were fabulously selfless at Flanders. I believe Stybar, in particular, with his great record in Paris-Roubaix, will be the number one option.

 

[Breh]

Re:

Heart: Philippe Gilbert
Head: I don't care

Head: VDB

 

[macbindle]

Re:

Race forecast/current condition of cobbles?

Early showers near Roubaix, but should be dry and sunny for race

 

[jflemaire]

Re:

Very likely, one or two of the four QS leaders will be distanced before the final because of bad luck.

On the other hand, one thing I find remarkable about QS' spring campaign (apart from all the winning obviously) is the fact that all four leaders are basically always present till the very end. No crash of significance, no mechanicals of significance. Incredible consistency. I expect the same today.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

My list of outsiders:
Cort Nielsen
Boasson Hagen
Dylan Groenewegen
Nils Politt
Søren Krag Andersen
Adrien Petit
S. Devolder
Hugo Hofstetter

No Pedersen? Though he is riding in support for Stuyven and Degenkolb.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I don't think that Sagan's chances are over rated. Most of us probably have a sneaking suspicion that he will win this race one day. It's hard to predict which year exactly. His chances to win in 2018 are pretty slim, but he is probably still a better individual chance than any other rider. There might be a dozen chances that wouldn't be considered a surprise result, and another dozen that are realistic outside chances.

 

[Frankschleck]

Re:

I think most of the field will be watching the wrong Quickstepper. Terpstra is the strongest but Lampaert is the big danger rather than Gilbert or Stybar

I love Lampaert, he is such a fighter, but Stybar is a much bigger danger than Lampaert. If i was the othee favorites, then i would mark Lampaert the least.

 

[Frankschleck]

Btw my bet is Gaudin.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

My list of outsiders:
Cort Nielsen
Boasson Hagen
Dylan Groenewegen
Nils Politt
Søren Krag Andersen
Adrien Petit
S. Devolder
Hugo Hofstetter

No Pedersen? Though he is riding in support for Stuyven and Degenkolb.

That's what they are saying he is. I don't believe it for a second.

The way he raced last Sunday was incredible, and if they really believe that this race suits him better than Flanders, he must have status as captain, even if that's not what they say.

 

[skidmark]

I woke up excited to see rain outside the window 90 minutes ago in Champhin-en-Pevele. It's already drying up though, and it is cloudy still but sun is forecast for the rest of the day, so it doesn't look like the wet will play a factor.

 

[Martinstranger]

Looking forward to one of the best races in the world - this is the real stuff and an oppertunity to become legend.

Today QS will be favorites - they have the manpower and clearly the best team (before the race). I have a little hope, that some of the other favorites can ditch them on the cobbles so we will see QS chasing instead of having one man in front and the rest wheelsucking. Sagan and Van Avermaet up front and the rest chasing. Probably not realistic, but would make the race more interesting.

I hope the other favorites can work together to crack the race so it will be interesting - they do not need to stop riding and settle for 2-3-4 places instead of working together and hoping for some luck in the end.

Trek might challenge QS on the way - they have a pretty good lineup in Stuvyen, Degenkolb and Pedersen. It will be interesting to see their tactics and what reaction there will be from QS if either team get a rider in the break.
Bora - hope that Oss and Bodnar can help Sagan longer than earlier and he will avoid punctures/crashes. Last year he looked as one of the strongest but got unlucky and this race actually doesn't suit him very well.

As a Dane I would love one of them to win - but thats not realistic. But the Danes are coming in the years to come an hopefully there will be contenders for the win

Pedersen - has clearly stated that he will support Stuvyen and Degenkolb. But he did the same in Flanders and held out much longer than anyone excepted. Keep in mind this race will suit him better and he won the junior in 2013. Compared to the winners in the last 10 years he is actually to tiny and don't have the height or the kg's to match the best - but time changes and a big motor is his advantage. According to him self - Paris-Roubaix will suit him better than Flanders because of his big popo By the way - the "steep hills" in Flandern didn't seem to suit him and he couldn't follow the favorites on them.

Magnus Cort - he is stepping up this year and have finished in far better places than 2016 and 2017 in the spring classics. I'm impressed by his stamina in the long races and he can finish in af sprint. He will be captain today but need some luck.

Søren Kragh - can finish in a sprint and also stepping up this year but not in a way as Pedersen/Cort.

Lars Bak - he will go for the break as he did in 2011 where he finished 5. He is a strong guy and used to pull the peleton in for a sprint - but its so hard to find the right break and be allowed to go.

So hard to predict a winner - because in this race so many riders have the oppertunity and some get down to luck.

Btw.: What about Sky - Geraint Thomas love this race, but is he in form and can he be an contender?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Trek should just line up with 3 leaders. Degenkolb still deserves a chance and its a great race for him - Stuyven as well, Roubaix is better suited for them than Flanders and he has also done well here in the past. Both seem to be in very decent shape. Pedersen should now have joined those two as co-leaders after his pretty amazing performance in Flanders in a race thats also very suited to him - probably better than Flanders actually.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Re: Re:

I think most of the field will be watching the wrong Quickstepper. Terpstra is the strongest but Lampaert is the big danger rather than Gilbert or Stybar

I love Lampaert, he is such a fighter, but Stybar is a much bigger danger than Lampaert. If i was the othee favorites, then i would mark Lampaert the least.

Stybar had everything go perfectly last year, got to sit on in the finale, but it was still a mismatch against GVA. For me, he doesn't quite have the power to win this race in normal circumstances

 

[Alexandre B.]

It's raining on Arenberg right now and since last night.

 

[Frankschleck]

Re: Re:

I think most of the field will be watching the wrong Quickstepper. Terpstra is the strongest but Lampaert is the big danger rather than Gilbert or Stybar

I love Lampaert, he is such a fighter, but Stybar is a much bigger danger than Lampaert. If i was the othee favorites, then i would mark Lampaert the least.

Stybar had everything go perfectly last year, got to sit on in the finale, but it was still a mismatch against GVA. For me, he doesn't quite have the power to win this race in normal circumstances

I see your point. My arguement is that i don't think anyone can ride from stybar, so he is sure to make it to the final, as no one usually rides from him on the cobbelstones. I am not sure Lampaert will be able to follow a rider like Vanmarcke if he makes the race hard early on, where Stybar should be able to.

 

[Velolover2]

A rainy Roubaix? Nibali should have been at Roubaix instead of the Ronde. It suits him much better.

 

[Laplaz]

I have the feeling there will be big surprises today.