2018 Spring Classics CQ game

[Armchair cyclist]

Sorry it's quite late: I had to wait until well into the evening to watch it.

Race 19: Fleche Wallonne

Today was about two riders and one team as far as the upper reaches of the game is concerned, and very mediocre for everyone else.

ALAPHILIPPE Julian 1st, 220pts for B'bass, Del1962, Kazistuta, Mellow Velo, The Asian
VANENDERT Jelle 3rd, 112 for Scrool07
MOLARD Rudy 13th, 30 for Scrool07 (again) and DJW
GESINK Robert 20th, 16 for GPBlanco
MCCARTHY Jay 21st, 15 for Chiron
GILBERT Philippe 24th, 12 for So2017
GASPAROTTO Enrico 27th, 9 for 8 teams

and 7 selected 5 pointers, none of whom were on more than 3 teams.

1= Bbass, The_Asian 229
3= Del1962, Kazistuta, MellowVelo 220
6 Scrool07 147
7 DJW 30
8 Chiron 20
9 GPBlanco 16
10 Armchair, DFA123, TheArt 14
13 So2017 12
14 Fauniera 10
15 Hakkie, Madrazo, Search 9
18 Blues_in_the_Bottle, DJSprtsch, Froschi, Nathanptz, Salvarani 5
23 the rest 0
CollectiveWisdom 0
Trudgin* 14

Standings
No change, and very few points gained, among the top 5, but closing on them rapidly, and still with considerable for the last lap, is The Asian. That is the only team in the top 15 this morning to have moved in the right direction, but further down the table, that 6 place rise was matched by Kazistuta and beaten (8 spots) by Del1962.

1 Nathanptz 2248
2 Madrazo 2214
3 Hakkie 2207
4 Russell23 2169
5 Armchair 2159
6 The_Asian 2083
7 LosBrolin 2023
8 AmisVelo 2017
9 Laarsland 1993
10 RoteLaterne 1966
11 DFA123 1877
12 Blues_in_the_Bottle 1875
13 GPBlanco 1793
14 Zaka_fan 1750
15 DJW 1704
16 Leadbelly 1695
16 Shalgo 1695
18 So2017 1681
19 ThePirate81 1646
20 Scrool07 1614
21 MellowVelo 1548
22 Squire 1507
23 TheArt 1491
24 Bbass 1462
25 Froschi 1372
25 Vladimir 1372
27 Del1962 1224
28 NorthAmericanScum 1197
29 Comodoro 1176
30 Fauniera 1152
31 Kazistuta 1148
32 Search 1096
33 Salvarani 1087
34 Chiron 1077
35 NairoQ 1071
36 SemirS 1028
37 Josedin 978
38 Joelsim 875
39 DJSprtsch 722
CollectiveWisdom 2119
Trudgin* 705

So, the overall is still in the hands of the same 4 riders.
So let's imagine that, as today, Valgren merely finishes. If Gasparotto comes 14th, Benoot 11th and Alaphilippe 3rd, then we will have 5 teams within about 10 points of each other at the top.

If Gasparotto were to be reduced to an also ran, then 7th for Benoot (to my advantage) or a second place for Alaphilippe (for The Asian) would still put Nathanptz' hold on the (non-existent) trophy in doubt.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Re:

Going to be really close !

Ala will need to finish at least 2nd in LBL.

Not necessarily. You have Gasparotto and Nathan does not, so your 165 pt deficit could be made up of 2nd, or 3rd+22nd and would also get you ahead of Gasparotto-sharer Madrazo (and his shadow, Hakkie). However, if Benoot gets to not flog himself for the benefit of Wellens (well, Alaphilippe in effect), then I could scupper you if he gets 9th (Alaphilippe 3rd) or 6th (Ala 2nd).

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Less than ten points between winner and third as the figures stand, but CQ are only showing 60 finishers so far, and PCS tells me there are another 72 5 pointers, who might hold the key.

Edit: they made no real difference

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Race 20, and the end of the game: Liege-Bastogne-Liege

Perhaps not surprisingly, it is largely the same riders who scored on Wednesday, but in a very different distribution of points.

ALAPHILIPPE Julian 4th, 125pts for B'bass, Del1962, Kazistuta, Mellow Velo, The Asian
GASPAROTTO Enrico 6th, 100 pts for 8 teams
FORMOLO Davide 7th, 90pts for Vladimir
VANENDERT Jelle 11th, 54 for Scrool07
VALGREN ANDERSEN Michael 19th, 26 for Blues in the Bottle and Nathanptz
BENOOT Tiesj 18pts for Armchair Cyclist, Scrool07, The Art
GESINK Robert 16 for GPBlanco
MOLARD Rudy 12 for Scrool07 and DJW

and 8 five pointers, 7 of whom are unique picks and one was on 2 teams.

1= Bbass, The_Asian 225 (Alaphilippe and Gasparotto)
3= Del1962, Kazistuta, MellowVelo 125 (Alaphilippe)
6= Armchair, TheArt 118 (Gasparotto and Benoot)
8 DFA123 105 (Gasparotto and a fiver)
9= Hakkie, Madrazo, Search 100 (Gasparotto)
12 Vladimir 90 (Formolo)
13 Scrool07 84 (Vanendert, Benoot, Molard)
14= Blues_in_the_Bottle, Nathanptz 26 (Valgren)
16 GPBlanco 16
17 DJW 12
18= Chiron, DJSprtsch 10
20= Fauniera, Joelsim, So2017, ThePirate81 5
24= Everyone else 0
CollectiveWisdom 0
Trudgin* 105 (Gasparotto and a fiver)

Final Standings

Gasparotto did do well enough, though, for Valgren's position to be insufficient to save Nathanptz' lead. Alaphilippe was gaining fast on Bardet and an extra 20 points that would have completed The Asian's late charge up the table, but but didn't make it, and Benoot's rather anonymous ride in the second group meant that Armchair couldn't disturb those who shared Gasparotto with him. And so, in a very close finish, Madrazo moves up from second place to take the laurels, and that very small small gap between him and Hakkie is infiltrated by The Asian, and those three make up our podium.

1 Madrazo 2314
2 The_Asian 2308
3 Hakkie 2307
4 Armchair 2277
5 Nathanptz 2274
6 Russell23 2169
7 LosBrolin 2023
8 AmisVelo 2017
9 Laarsland 1993
10 DFA123 1982
11 RoteLaterne 1966
12 Blues_in_the_Bottle 1901
13 GPBlanco 1809
14 Zaka_fan 1750
15 DJW 1716
16 Scrool07 1698
17 Leadbelly 1695
17 Shalgo 1695
19 Bbass 1687
20 MellowVelo 1673
21 So2017 1671
22 ThePirate81 1651
23 TheArt 1609
24 Squire 1507
25 Vladimir 1462
26 Froschi 1372
27 Del1962 1349
28 Kazistuta 1273
29 Search 1211
30 NorthAmericanScum 1197
31 Comodoro 1176
32 Fauniera 1157
33 Chiron 1087
33 Salvarani 1087
35 NairoQ 1071
36 SemirS 1028
37 Josedin 978
38 Joelsim 880
39 DJSprtsch 732
CollectiveWisdom 2119
Trudgin* 810

So, 7 points from 1st to 3rd, 40 from 1st to 5th, and with 150m of the 20th race left, I didn't know who would win.

Congratulations to Madrazo and to his podium companions, and thanks to all for your entries. See you again in about a week in the Giro game thread.

A bit of number crunching to follow, either this evening or tomorrow night.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

526 riders scored CQ points in this series of races: 32 of them got more than 200.

SAGAN Peter 852pts 0 teams
TERPSTRA Niki 695 20
VALGREN ANDERSEN Michael 598 2
STUYVEN Jasper 506 0
BENOOT Tiesj 500 3
VAN AVERMAET Greg 489 0
GILBERT Philippe 457 1
DEMARE Arnaud 425 0
VANMARCKE Sep 417 24
ALAPHILIPPE Julian 416 5
STYBAR Zdenek 369 20
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 368 0
WELLENS Tim 319 0
NIBALI Vincenzo 311 0
BARDET Romain 310 0
NAESEN Oliver 309 1
KREUZIGER Roman 308 0
COLBRELLI Sonny 305 1
DEBUSSCHERE Jens 300 2
VIVIANI Elia 298 0
JAKOBSEN Fabio 295 1
Jungels Bob 290 0
VAN AERT Wout 278 6
MATTHEWS Michael 253 0
LAMPAERT Yves 253 0
PEDERSEN Mads 250 0
Ackermann Pascal 250 0
GASPAROTTO Enrico 221 8
DEHAES Kenny 213 1
VANENDERT Jelle 212 1
TEUNISSEN Mike 205 1
HOFSTETTER Hugo 202 0

And 39 took at least as many in these races as they did in the whole of last year:

Name/points/price/%age return/number of teams
BOVENHUIS Jasper 26 0 ****** 0
BRAND Samuel 5 0 ****** 0
HAVIK Piotr 5 0 ****** 0
KLEIMAN Wim 5 0 ****** 0
MÄRKL Niklas 5 0 ****** 0
TRARIEUX Julien 5 0 ****** 0
Turgis Jimmy 57 5 1140.0 0
Fenn Andrew 83 8 1037.5 0
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose 145 26 557.7 1
CAPIOT Amaury 168 32 525.0 20
OLIVEIRA Rui Filipe Alves 47 9 522.2 0
BASSO Leonardo 28 6 466.7 1
CRADDOCK Lawson 57 15 380.0 0
PHINNEY Taylor 102 36 283.3 3
JAKOBSEN Fabio 295 118 250.0 1
SISR Frantisek 140 56 250.0 1
GASPAROTTO Enrico 221 93 237.6 8
TURGIS Tanguy 51 24 212.5 0
DE BONDT Dries 94 46 204.3 0
DE BIE Sean 113 57 198.2 20
Ackermann Pascal 250 134 186.6 0
Goolaerts Michael 17 10 170.0 0
TERPSTRA Niki 695 417 166.7 20
OTTEMA Rick 48 29 165.5 0
DUVAL Julien 87 53 164.2 0
WELTEN Bram 84 56 150.0 0
GUARNIERI Jacopo 15 10 150.0 1
WISNIOWSKI Lukasz 154 105 146.7 0
Dempster Zakkari 116 80 145.0 0
HOFSTETTER Hugo 202 142 142.3 0
VAN RHEE Joey 36 27 133.3 0
VALGREN ANDERSEN Michael 598 483 123.8 2
ARCHBOLD Shane 42 34 123.5 0
HAUSSLER Heinrich 73 60 121.7 6
KREUZIGER Roman 308 265 116.2 0
SERRY Pieter 131 117 112.0 0
DE BACKER Bert 60 55 109.1 1
TEUNISSEN Mike 205 199 103.0 1
KAMSTRA Brian 5 5 100.0 0

Impeccable picks

SAGAN Peter
TERPSTRA Niki
KREUZIGER Roman
JAKOBSEN Fabio
GASPAROTTO Enrico
CAPIOT Amaury
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose
Fenn Andrew
Turgis Jimmy
BOVENHUIS Jasper

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Madrazo's winning team:
Rider/Price/Points
TERPSTRA Niki 417 695
VANMARCKE Sep 602 417
STYBAR Zdenek 503 369
GASPAROTTO Enrico 93 221
ROELANDTS Jürgen 228 167
HALVORSEN Kristoffer 151 94
VAN BAARLE Dylan 347 92
BLYTHE Adam 267 84
GERTS Floris 115 61
BRESCHEL Matti 101 61
VANDENBERGH Stijn 40 38
STANNARD Ian 135 15

The Asian shared 4 of those, TERPSTRA, STYBAR, GASPAROTTO and STANNARD, and while ALAPHILIPPE, DEHAES, CAPIOT, DE BIE and HAUSSLER did their bits to make it close, he will feel that EDMONDSON, VAN HOOYDONCK or ENGER could have done a little more, and it only needed a little more to win it.

Hakkie and Madrazo had very similar teams, but Hakkie's choice of CAPIOT, COQUARD, THWAITES and BASKA (rather than BLYTHE, GERTS Floris, BRESCHEL and VANDENBERGH) were what let him down (although Capiot is unlikely to get much of the blame).

Me: I'll rue the injury to Devenyns, and the 88 points that Gaudin got in the non-counting Samyn and Tro-Bro Leon races.

Best possible team
I post this with no great confidence (Hakkie usually manages to find a better permutation than I do), but the best I can find is:
TERPSTRA Niki
VALGREN ANDERSEN Michael
STYBAR Zdenek
KREUZIGER Roman
DEBUSSCHERE Jens
JAKOBSEN Fabio
GASPAROTTO Enrico
Ackermann Pascal
VANENDERT Jelle
TEUNISSEN Mike
HOFSTETTER Hugo
CAPIOT Amaury
which would have scored 3823 from a spend of 2995. Noteworthy that this selection is 25% Ardennes riders (not even counting the Amstel winner), while many teams in the game scored almost nothing after Roubaix. Gasparotto's Ardennes campaign, as in 2016, was a key factor in the win.

Expensive flops
These riders cost more than the average 250 point/rider spend, but scored 1/6 of less of that cost.
Rider/points/price/ teams
DEGENKOLB John 75 999 1
FELLINE Fabio 10 736 5
DE BUYST Jasper 34 710 1
THEUNS Edward 95 645 2
LUTSENKO Alexey 25 563 1
HAAS Nathan 28 533 1
BARBIER Rudy 5 506 1
BOOM Lars 0 465 1
ANDERSEN Søren Kragh 34 478 1
VAKOC Petr 0 439 1
PÖSTLBERGER Lukas 0 405 1
MCCARTHY Jay 20 379 1
BETTIOL Alberto 15 354 3
VAN DER HOORN Taco 0 334 1
GESINK Robert 40 318 1
ROWE Luke 19 291 2
VAN POPPEL Danny 26 287 3
CAVENDISH Mark 0 257 3
DEVENYNS Dries 0 255 5
LANGEVELD Sebastian 35 260 6

 

[Hakkie2]

I think this is the best possible team:

Terpstra (20 selections)
Valgren (2)
Stybar (20)
Kreuziger (0)
Debusschere (2)
Jakobsen (1)
Ackermann (0)
Gasparotto (8)
Vanendert (1)
Teunissen (1)
Hofstetter (0)
Capiot (20)

Together, they score 3823 points for a cost of 2995 points.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Importance of each race

Race/points scored/%age of game's total points (In date order)
Omloop 4412 7.0
KBK 437 0.7
Strade 2758 4.4
GP Industria 1312 2.1
Drenthe 661 1.1
Nokere 2898 4.6
Handzame 829 1.3
MSR 3739 6.0
Denain 349 0.6
De Panne 1326 2.1
E3 9255 14.7
Gent-Wev 3480 5.5
Dwars 5586 8.9
Ronde 11156 17.8
Schelde 432 0.7
PR 8418 13.4
Brabantse 443 0.7
Amstel 2054 3.3
Fleche 1447 2.3
LBL 1760 2.8

62752 100.0


Anything else you want to glean from the data? Knock yourself out, and share any interesting insights/calculations.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Re:

I think this is the best possible team:

Terpstra (20 selections)
Valgren (2)
Stybar (20)
Kreuziger (0)
Debusschere (2)
Jakobsen (1)
Ackermann (0)
Gasparotto (8)
Vanendert (1)
Teunissen (1)
Hofstetter (0)
Capiot (20)

Together, they score 3823 points for a cost of 2995 points.

First time for years you haven't managed to find a better combo than I did. That's almost as satisfying as my 4th place.

 

[Hakkie2]

I should refresh more often before I post...

 

[MADRAZO]

Thanks for organizing the game. Nice to win the game, especially as I have been quite annoyed to have changed Jakobsen (and Marcato) for Halvorsen (and Gerts) very shortly before the start being annoyed to miss 2 points in getting both Halvorsen and Jakobsen, after Halvorsen found his form in Abu Dhabi with a good result while Jakobsen still had not delivered. Generally I had a lot of focus on the riders with the biggets percent of their points scored in the races last years and particulary had a lot of focus on the Ronde van Drenthe, Nokere Koerse and Handzame Classic where there were a lot of cheap points available for some cheaper sprinters focusing on these, like those 2 and Blythe. The rest of my team was very conservative I think with the expensive riders like Vanmarcke, Stybar and Terpstra that always score most of their points in these few races and usually are sure to do well and not really any gambles on riders that could improve a lot.

 

[the asian]

A Close finish, but once again I'm second.

Congrats to Madrazo on his win.

It certainly came down to the less expensive support riders.

Edmondson really had a disappointing campaign.