2018 Tour of Flanders

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Who will win

  • Peter Sagan

    Votes: 40 28.0%

  • Greg Van Avermaet

    Votes: 12 8.4%

  • Philippe Gilbert

    Votes: 13 9.1%

  • Tiesj Benoot

    Votes: 13 9.1%

  • Michal Kwiatkowski

    Votes: 5 3.5%

  • Sep Vanmarcke

    Votes: 12 8.4%

  • Niki Terpstra

    Votes: 14 9.8%

  • Zdenek Stybar

    Votes: 11 7.7%

  • Wout Van Aert

    Votes: 2 1.4%

  • Other

    Votes: 21 14.7%
  • Total voters
    143
  • Poll closed .
Gigs_98

Gigs_98

Feb 18, 2015
13,507
9,032
28,180
Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

Quickstep is working so well as a team this year that I just can't look past them. Of the 3 races last week they won two and in the third they didn't win but the riders who are contenders in the ronde achieved exactly what they wanted, a reduced bunch sprint with Viviani. It's not their fault that Viviani wasn't strong enough to win.
I think Gilbert is the favorite for this race and he'd definitely be a deserving winner. Maybe it's just my biased feeling but it seems like he is the factor who made a group of great individuals a working unit. There are 6 WT cobbles classics this season (Omloop, E3, GW, DDV, RVV, PR), since gilbert has joined the team there have been 10, of those ten Quickstep have won 4. In the four years before (so the years after 2012 and therefore with a Boonen not quite on top anymore) they have won 2 and one of those was in DDV which wasn't even a WT race back then.

The thing is, it doesn't look like either Sagan or GVA are strong enough this year to drop all steppers on the Kwaremont-Paterberg combo, and as long as you can't do this it's just extremely hard to beat a team with 4 potential winners.

Besides the battle for the win I'm very curious how Nibali will perform. It seems like his team expects great things from him, otherwise he wouldn't be the leader even in a relatively weak team for cobbles classics. Realistically his chances to win are close to 0, but if he gets in the, let's say, top 20 maybe even 10, or if he makes an impressive early attack, that copes very well for the future. But honestly, more than anything, I just hope he won't crash.
 
Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

Mar 13, 2009
29,397
3,453
28,180
Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

I really doubt Nibali has the explosive power needed on the Paterberg, nor the hard cobble riding skill on the Oude Kwaremont. He'd need to win in a Devolder kind of way, but without the team Devolder had. Seems kinda impossible.
 
L

loge1884

Apr 1, 2013
426
0
0
Re: Re:

red rick wrote:
I have news for you
Vincenzo Nibali will win this bike race

was there in 'modern times' anyone who won RvV on his first appearance?
 
Rollthedice

Rollthedice

May 11, 2013
13,980
5,252
28,180
On the podium in Sanremo, Demare was staring for long periods of time at Nibali, probably the first time he saw him so close. I can imagine the same surprise on the faces of Lampaert or Terpstra when they'll realize Nibs is still on their wheels. Logic says though that the shark will either get dropped or miss a decisive move along the way. Sagan to win the sprint from a small group.
 
M

More Strides than Rides

Mar 15, 2011
2,760
71
11,580
Depends how it's raced of course. Pretty open field, compared to the Boonen/Cancellara days.

The favorite is Sagan, but not because of his form, but because of his superiority in the default style of racing: whittling down to a small group finish. Without any remarkable situations, Sagan becomes increasingly the favorite.

Benoot really impressed me in SB. If he brings that same force of will, he'll be able to go solo, or bridge solo to the leader and then drop him. I like Sagan, and I like his chances more than any individual, but the odds are always on the field.

Voted Benoot
 
DFA123

DFA123

Nov 7, 2010
8,820
246
17,880
I agree with Quickstep being big favourites. And out of them, Gilbert the biggest favourite. I can see a scenario where Lampaert or Terpstra get up the road and GVA/Sagan/Benoot have to close the gap, after seeing what happened at E3; while Gilbert will get a free ride and solo home at some point on the flat run in to the line.

I think Gilbert is in just as good a form as last season. Just he hasn't had the same opportunities to turn that into wins; and he didn't have to prove his leadership credentials on cobbles this year - unlike last season - so he was happier to play the loyal team-mate.

Benoot a definite dark horse though. He could certainly drop everyone on the Kwaremont or Paterberg in his current form.
 
the delgados

the delgados

May 2, 2009
2,582
640
13,680
Re:

krakenKE said:
This edition is hard to predict as none of the big classic guys is clearly way above the rest. In my opinion Vanmarcke has shown best performance on cobbled climbs so far this season but I doubt he will be able to drop everybody and hold his lead to the finish. I predict a sprint from a group of 5 or 6 riders. I don't think there will be more than 1 QS guy in the front group. In such scenario it should be between GVA and Sagan.
Click to expand...

It would be nice to see Vanmarcke win, but it seems he lacks the kick to drop his rivals in the final km's and is unable to out- sprint anyone. I hope I'm wrong, but he seems doomed to be one of the bridesmades for eternity.
He reminds me of Leif Hoste. Always a favourite but never able to make the top step of the podium.
 
A

animir

Jun 19, 2014
48
0
0
Clearly the biggest favorite is quick-step. Other favorites (and their teams) have the best chance, when they "cooperate" a bit to get quick-step under control by covering their attacks together. If they let someone from quick-step go away, they have all lost. I think this time they will work with Sagan. He can win, but he can also get dropped. From the group of favorites anybody can win. More favorites are so strong, that they have a good chance to beat Sagan, much better than to beat Gilbert with free ride. I expect instead of "anti Sagan" racing we will see more "anti quick-step" racing in peloton and it makes sense.
 
L

Leinster

Jun 10, 2017
5,199
3,371
23,180
Re:

Rollthedice said:
On the podium in Sanremo, Demare was staring for long periods of time at Nibali, probably the first time he saw him so close. I can imagine the same surprise on the faces of Lampaert or Terpstra when they'll realize Nibs is still on their wheels. Logic says though that the shark will either get dropped or miss a decisive move along the way. Sagan to win the sprint from a small group.
Click to expand...
I can’t see it. Nobody will work with Sagan in a “small group,” and he won’t want to bring them to the line. I guess it depends on the small group makeup, Kwiatkowski has proven at times he isn’t afraid to work with him whereas VanAvermaet or a QS rider (except maybe Gilbert) will never help.


VanMarcke might be the best cobble rider in the current peloton, but he suffers for the last pave always being 10-15km away from the finish. In 2016 he dropped the others in the break in each sector in Roubaix, but they caught him without much stress soon after each time.
 
C

Commoner

Jul 14, 2013
4
0
0
Re:

Jungle Cycle said:
will be a sprint between Vanmarcke x Bennot...
Click to expand...

Based on my long-time lurking on this forum, someone is surely thinking this...

FavoriteIllustriousGoral-size_restricted.gif
 
SafeBet

SafeBet

Sep 2, 2011
16,914
12,363
28,180
Re:

Dekker_Tifosi said:
Don't think so.

However top 10 is definitely not of the cards. I mean Boogerd got top 10 twice while not really being a Flanders type of guy at all.
Click to expand...
As I stated in his topic, it's been ages since a GT winner achieved such a good result in RVV.
It would really come as a surprise.

Speaking of italian riders: Trentin is a bit underrated on this forum. Not that I think he will win, but his shape is good and he's riding his first Ronde as a leader.
 
SKSemtex

SKSemtex

Mar 24, 2013
2,806
232
11,880
Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

Sagan can lose this race only by long range attack of some stepper or due to mechanical problems.
Only Gilbert or Terpstra are capable to make it. However this year they're will be well marked and Sagan will not be there alone to do all chasing.
Even with lesser form his chances are probably bigger then last year. QS cannot pull this trick the second time.
***** Sagan
*** GVA , Gilbert, Stybar, Terpstra, Benoot
** VanMarcke, Kwiatko, Nibali
 
Valv.Piti

Valv.Piti

Aug 3, 2015
21,976
9,393
28,180
Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

SKSemtex said:
Sagan can lose this race only by long range attack of some stepper or due to mechanical problems.
Only Gilbert or Terpstra are capable to make it. However this year they're will be well marked and Sagan will not be there alone to do all chasing.
Even with lesser form his chances are probably bigger then last year. QS cannot pull this trick the second time.
***** Sagan
*** GVA , Gilbert, Stybar, Terpstra, Benoot
** VanMarcke, Kwiatko, Nibali
Click to expand...
How can anyone state that Sagan is a big favourite after getting dropped like a stone and humiliated at E-3 and Strade Bianche, the two hardest races so far? I just don't get it. On top of that, QS is 10x the collective that Bora is and all their leaders seem at least as strong as Sagan. Aint happening
 
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