2018 Tour of Flanders

[DonEsteban]

Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

Sagan can lose this race only by long range attack of some stepper or due to mechanical problems.
Only Gilbert or Terpstra are capable to make it. However this year they're will be well marked and Sagan will not be there alone to do all chasing.
Even with lesser form his chances are probably bigger then last year. QS cannot pull this trick the second time.
***** Sagan
*** GVA , Gilbert, Stybar, Terpstra, Benoot
** VanMarcke, Kwiatko, Nibali

He can lose it like in E3: Doing too much too early chasing quicksteppers, then being dropped on the last two muurs, with nobody being able/willing to help him with the chase. Never underestimate his ability to do tactical mistakes.

Also, GVA or Kwia can outsprint him if he works too much, which he probably will.

Depends on how much help from Bora will he have. If he arrives to the last two hills relatively fresh, in the front group and there are less than 3 quicksteppers left after those hills, it is his to lose.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

was there in 'modern times' anyone who won RvV on his first appearance?

Van Hooydonck in 1989.
Durand in 1992.

Van Hooydonck was 27th in 1987 and 22nd in 1988 before winning.
http://firstcycling.com/rider.php?r=543&k=monu

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

was there in 'modern times' anyone who won RvV on his first appearance?

Van Hooydonck in 1989.
Durand in 1992.

Van Hooydonck was 27th in 1987 and 22nd in 1988 before winning.
http://firstcycling.com/rider.php?r=543&k=monu

My mistake, I mislooked. So Durand seems to be the only one.

 

[DonEsteban]

Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

Sagan can lose this race only by long range attack of some stepper or due to mechanical problems.
Only Gilbert or Terpstra are capable to make it. However this year they're will be well marked and Sagan will not be there alone to do all chasing.
Even with lesser form his chances are probably bigger then last year. QS cannot pull this trick the second time.
***** Sagan
*** GVA , Gilbert, Stybar, Terpstra, Benoot
** VanMarcke, Kwiatko, Nibali

How can anyone state that Sagan is a big favourite after getting dropped like a stone and humiliated at E-3 and Strade Bianche, the two hardest races so far? I just don't get it. On top of that, QS is 10x the collective that Bora is and all their leaders seem at least as strong as Sagan. Aint happening

Strade was way too early in Sagan's cycle
E3 was great tactics by QS and stupid riding by him and Bora (nothing surprising there)

He has an ace card with his sprint, if he is in the front group after the last hills, he has no incentive to work extra hard; there is nobody who can outsprint him if he saves a bit of energy.

QS will need to play the long game as in E3 or last year, Bora will need to support Sagan until the last two hills, others will need to work with Bora/Sagan if they don't want to give the win to QS. We will see whether the team tactics work so well in a monument, perhaps the egos of Gilbert/Terpstra will clash ... there was a hint of that at E3.

Should be an entertaining race ...

 

[therhodeo]

I say Quik Step shoots for a long range with Gilbert again just like last year and have the rest of the crew just sit on the favorites. Thats got to be depressing knowing you're chasing with a fresh Stybar, Terpstra, and Lampaert getting an easy ride.

 

[KGB]

Sagan to win.He will smoke all QS and even CN forum experts.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Sagan to win.He will smoke all QS and even CN forum experts.

Let's hope that someone will beat that sleazy Slowakian SUV salesman Sagan.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

was there in 'modern times' anyone who won RvV on his first appearance?

Van Hooydonck in 1989.
Durand in 1992.

Van Hooydonck was 27th in 1987 and 22nd in 1988 before winning.
http://firstcycling.com/rider.php?r=543&k=monu

My mistake, I mislooked. So Durand seems to be the only one.

Going back there are René Martens in 1982, Cees Bal in 1974, Dino Zandegù in 1967.
Martens and Bal at the only try of their careers.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Sagan to win.He will smoke all QS and even CN forum experts.

Imagine that Juraj wins and nobody knows what's what anymore

 

[THEORYY]

Sagan ftw

 

[Flamin]

Re:

If Quickstep riders play it right it's their race to lose, too many options and no chance other teams can control them all.
They'll attack on the Muur and then check who's left. It's gonna be hell for the others.

The element of surprise on the Muur is gone though. Many favourites didn't expect anything to happen so early and Quick Step took advantage of it.

I don't know, there's a few factors that could play against them.

1) 7 men teams obviously damage them more than any other team.
2) They have been so dominant, all eyes are on them to control the race and close every gap whenever they miss a break away.
3) They have 4 potential winners but it's another thing to have the right guy in the right group at the right moment (remember a few years ago when they ended up with Stijn VDB at the front with Canc, Sep and Greg, and 3 guys in the next group).
4) E3, G-W and Dwars is all fun and games, but will Gilbert, Terpstra and Stybar be as generous in de Ronde too? They're all pretty much on a similar level so they're surely thinking about winning themselves.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yeah, I don't think anything special will happen before the 2nd Oude Kwaremont after what happened last year, but from that point is race will really be on and I suspect QS will send 2 of their 4 riders up the road already at that point - Lampaert and Terpstra would make a lot of sense and just having Styby and Gilbert follow wheels, I don't think anyone really are capable of dropping those 2 guys on the hellingen.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

I say Quik Step shoots for a long range with Gilbert again just like last year and have the rest of the crew just sit on the favorites. Thats got to be depressing knowing you're chasing with a fresh Stybar, Terpstra, and Lampaert getting an easy ride.

They won’t let Gilbert up the road like that again. Keisse, Sabatini or deClercq might be given that freedom, but the 4 potential winners (including Lampaert) in the QS squad won’t.

 

[Laplaz]

Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

Everybody will be marking each other, so an outsider ftw!
P.S.: It will be Haussler.

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

Early Break catches the win (Pfingsten)

 

[Nirvana]

Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

Everybody will be marking each other, so an outsider ftw!
P.S.: It will be Haussler.

According to his team he should stay with Nibali, probably only if Nibali is dropped early they let him ride his race.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

Everybody will be marking each other, so an outsider ftw!
P.S.: It will be Haussler.

According to his team he should stay with Nibali, probably only if Nibali is dropped early they let him ride his race.

Haussler should not stay with Nibali. Nibali should be glued to his wheel and that is the only way how Nib can finish the race in the front group.

Top 10 would be a great result for Nibali as there is no chance that he can do what he did at MSR and he got no sprint from a small group.

 

[Koronin]

I picked the option for other only because there is not an option to pick Quickstep as a team. As for which one, who knows. They are proving over and over how strong of a classics team they are, AND they are actually working together for a change, which helps.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

Everybody will be marking each other, so an outsider ftw!
P.S.: It will be Haussler.

According to his team he should stay with Nibali, probably only if Nibali is dropped early they let him ride his race.

Haussler should not stay with Nibali. Nibali should be glued to his wheel and that is the only way how Nib can finish the race in the front group.

Top 10 would be a great result for Nibali as there is no chance that he can do what he did at MSR and he got no sprint from a small group.

Nibali is a rider that has the ability and likes to position himself, i don't think he'll stay glued to a team mate, at the Sanremo was alone in the first positions of the gruop almost all the race. I think the team wants Haussler with him in case of a puncture or a mechanical not for towing him in front of the group.

Anyway if he wants to finish in the first group he need to survive the first climbs, i think it's more likely to drop him on the Muur after 170 kms than on the Oude Kwaremont after 250 kms.

 

[The Hegelian]

I find it hard to see past a Sagan/GVA/Vanmarcke podium. I think that when the pressure is really on, those guys will have the best legs. Not sure of the order, except who will get third....Maybe add Benoot to make it four.

I'm a bit skeptical of QS. Sure they've had a great classics season and have four potential winners, but I think they lack the real bona fide Rhonde champion with proven stocks to make the race winning move late up those bergs. Gilbert's win was very unusual in that regard ~ and I doubt he could follow a GVA or Sagan explosion late in the race.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Stijn Devolder to take his third. He always wins when no one expects it.

 

[Kjellus]

Re: 2018 Ronde van Vlaanderen

Everybody will be marking each other, so an outsider ftw!
P.S.: It will be Haussler.

Haussler to win on the velodrome next Sunday...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I say Quik Step shoots for a long range with Gilbert again just like last year and have the rest of the crew just sit on the favorites. Thats got to be depressing knowing you're chasing with a fresh Stybar, Terpstra, and Lampaert getting an easy ride.

They won’t let Gilbert up the road like that again. Keisse, Sabatini or deClercq might be given that freedom, but the 4 potential winners (including Lampaert) in the QS squad won’t.

Given the freedom by who?

 

[animir]

Re:

Yeah, I don't think anything special will happen before the 2nd Oude Kwaremont after what happened last year, but from that point is race will really be on and I suspect QS will send 2 of their 4 riders up the road already at that point - Lampaert and Terpstra would make a lot of sense and just having Styby and Gilbert follow wheels, I don't think anyone really are capable of dropping those 2 guys on the hellingen.

This time everybody knows, what happens, if they let quick step riders go. This is the main scenario, which have all other favorites to avoid. I hope they will together cover any quick step attack a they will "pay back" that frustration they have got in the past races, when they were covered by quick step riders in the second (main favorites) group, while other quick step riders were on attack in the first group.

Riders like Benoot or Vanmarcke have this year a good chance to drop Sagan on Qwaremont. Cancellara once said, that this hill doesnt suit Sagan. He needs a top shape to be good there. Of course Sagan can also survive and win the sprint or survive and loose the sprint agaist GVA. If the strongest riders think the same way, they will cover quick step attacks together to keep their own chance for the win alive. Cannot wait for the race.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think someone from QuickStep will win this solo. Gilbert or Terpstra seems the most likely as Stybar will sit on Sagan's wheel as he usually does, and Lampaert will probably play the role as helper even though he seems just as strong as Gilbert and Terpstra. I just don't see the other favorites collaborating in bringing back a Gilbert or Terpstra solo ride. We already saw that in E3 when the big chasing group couldn't agree on bringing back Terpstra even though BMC had three riders in that group.