2019 Alien Awards

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Apr 27, 2016
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SafeBet said:
How long can Primoz Roglic's peak last? That is the question. The whole Giro? Giro+Tour? His whole career?

Stiff competition (Astana, MvdP) but my alien award goes to him thus far.
Yes- for a training race he destroyed everyone without breaking a sweat. Thought that sprint on stage 1 was the most suspect.
 
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SafeBet said:
How long can Primoz Roglic's peak last? That is the question. The whole Giro? Giro+Tour? His whole career?
Anything is possible. Wiggins' 2012 was also considered impossible until it happened. After every race he won, someone claimed he peaked too early but eventually he went on to win ever race that year. Froome pretty much did the same in 2013.
 
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ppanther92 said:
SafeBet said:
How long can Primoz Roglic's peak last? That is the question. The whole Giro? Giro+Tour? His whole career?
Anything is possible. Wiggins' 2012 was also considered impossible until it happened. After every race he won, someone claimed he peaked too early but eventually he went on to win ever race that year. Froome pretty much did the same in 2013.
I don't see a problem. Evans in 2011 maintained his peak from April (T-A) to July. Roglic is much younger than Evans was then so he should have better recovery all things being equal. I thought Roglic was showing good signs last season so what we have seen so far this season does not surprise me he is a big talent.
 
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Cookster15 said:
ppanther92 said:
SafeBet said:
How long can Primoz Roglic's peak last? That is the question. The whole Giro? Giro+Tour? His whole career?
Anything is possible. Wiggins' 2012 was also considered impossible until it happened. After every race he won, someone claimed he peaked too early but eventually he went on to win ever race that year. Froome pretty much did the same in 2013.
I don't see a problem. Evans in 2011 maintained his peak from April (T-A) to July. Roglic is much younger than Evans was then so he should have better recovery all things being equal. I thought Roglic was showing good signs last season so what we have seen so far this season does not surprise me he is a big talent.
Evans went from Romandie to Dauphine to TDF in 2011, while Roglic is going from Romandie straight to the Giro
 
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red_flanders said:
SafeBet said:
How long can Primoz Roglic's peak last? That is the question. The whole Giro? Giro+Tour? His whole career?

Stiff competition (Astana, MvdP) but my alien award goes to him thus far.
Performance today seems absurd.
What happened to his form? Human perhaps? Peaked too early? Or dropped his level as he knew he was targeted? No need to answer ;)
 
Apr 23, 2016
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Cookster15 said:
red_flanders said:
SafeBet said:
How long can Primoz Roglic's peak last? That is the question. The whole Giro? Giro+Tour? His whole career?

Stiff competition (Astana, MvdP) but my alien award goes to him thus far.
Performance today seems absurd.
What happened to his form? Human perhaps? Peaked too early? Or dropped his level as he knew he was targeted? No need to answer ;)
This year I have been seeing (dare I say it?) normal performances. Performances appear a heck of a lot cleaner than what I normally witness. Maybe, behind the scenes, Lappartient has been making this happen.
 
^^This is what I was saying earlier. If he had won the Giro bell-to-bell there would be good reason for suspicion. But what we saw was in line with expectations. Now, I still think there are some unresolved Anderlass questions.
 
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Huapango said:
Cookster15 said:
red_flanders said:
SafeBet said:
How long can Primoz Roglic's peak last? That is the question. The whole Giro? Giro+Tour? His whole career?

Stiff competition (Astana, MvdP) but my alien award goes to him thus far.
Performance today seems absurd.
What happened to his form? Human perhaps? Peaked too early? Or dropped his level as he knew he was targeted? No need to answer ;)
This year I have been seeing (dare I say it?) normal performances. Performances appear a heck of a lot cleaner than what I normally witness. Maybe, behind the scenes, Lappartient has been making this happen.
Yep. Does this mean they are clean. No. But to say Roglic's performance was absurd so early in the Giro was premature.
 
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Huapango said:
]
This year I have been seeing (dare I say it?) normal performances. Performances appear a heck of a lot cleaner than what I normally witness. Maybe, behind the scenes, Lappartient has been making this happen.
MVDP?
 
I really enjoyed the season so far, but there were certainly some suspicious performances.

Of course MVDP (although i like to watch him), Roglic (seems dodgy to me since the beginning), Lopez faster than Robo-Basso or Contador on the Mortirolo (while not even having that great of a Giro). Also the Vuelta Asturias (Alto del Acebo) showed already that this is going to be a fast Giro with Crapaz and Landa setting a new record faster than Indurain, Jimenez, Escartin, Beloki, Mancebo, ...
 
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ppanther92 said:
I really enjoyed the season so far, but there were certainly some suspicious performances.

Of course MVDP (although i like to watch him), Roglic (seems dodgy to me since the beginning), Lopez faster than Robo-Basso or Contador on the Mortirolo (while not even having that great of a Giro). Also the Vuelta Asturias (Alto del Acebo) showed already that this is going to be a fast Giro with Crapaz and Landa setting a new record faster than Indurain, Jimenez, Escartin, Beloki, Mancebo, ...
Mortirolo! Looking at some of the supercharged times in the 90's sure is hilarious.

Craziness!
 
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F_Cance said:
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider.php?id=wout-van-aert&p=results&xseason=&sort=date&race=&km1=&km2=&limit=100&page=0&topx=&type_3=1&continent=&pnts=&level=&rnk=&exclude_tt=0&filter=Filter&morefilters=0
From 0.5 s/km to 2.6 s/km faster than Cavagna in 2 years. Nice.
 
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roundabout said:
From 0.5 s/km to 2.6 s/km faster than Cavagna in 2 years. Nice.
Two crucial years in his development, from 22 to 24 years of age. For a guy that has always (since turning 20) done great ITT's for the few ITT he rode. Only once outside the top 10. A former cyclocross (tripple) world champion, guys that do nothing else but go full gas for 1 hour.

This result is far less suspicious than what he and van der Poel did in the spring classics. Because unlike ITT's and cyclocross, a classic isn't about going full gas for an hour, but going the distance, up to 270km.

The ITT field was fairly weak. A lot of top ITT'ers not present (Roglic, Denis, Campenaerts, Lampaert, Van Emden, Froome, Martin, Castroviejo...) and Kiryienka, Moscon and Kwiatkowski taking a day off. The only reference is Dumoulin, but he is recovering from an injury.

As for Cavagna... what exactly did he have to race for? Van Aert was defending two jerseys: green and white. So obviously he was going to go full gas. He scored extra points for the green jersey and took an extra minute for the white jersey.

Also, Campenaerts (who is all about the details in aerodynamics) said that he could clearly see that Van Aert had made a big step forward regarding his bike position.

therealthing said:
Wout Van Aert looking to win this award. One of the most suspicious rides of the year.
If you haven't been following his carreer, sure.
 
therealthing said:
Wout Van Aert looking to win this award. One of the most suspicious rides of the year.
Erm, that might be a bit of a jump, unless we've really set the bar low here. WvA seems to be best at the TT and holding that threshold.

Anywho, not saying he's not doing anything crazy. But to be competitive in the Alien award, perhaps if he wins a MTF next that would be worth a laugh!
 
The field in this ITT was just plain weak. Dumoulin injured, and none of the Ineos guys wanting to have a go (Moscon, Kwiatkowski, Kiryienka). Let me demonstrate by the result of Bjorg Lambrecht, who is traditionally bad at ITT, and who weighs 56 kg! He finished at 2"06' from Van Aert. That means he only lost 1 minute 19 seconds to Dumoulin!!! Last year, Lambrecht lost 3 minutes 20 seconds to.... *drumroll* Stefan Kung in Tour de Suisse (ITT only a few km longer). Now, Kung is far from a bad ITT'er, but he's no Dumoulin or Denis.

And you can say, Lambrecht might just have done an amazing ITT... But Gaudu, a guy equally bad at TT'ing and weighing even less, was only 10 seconds slower. Quintana only lost 50 seconds to Dumoulin. How often does Kruijswijck lose only 2 seconds to Dumoulin?

Other than a recovering Dumoulin, there was no Denis, no Campenaerts, no Castroviejo, no Kung, no Roglic, no Froome, no Lampaert, no Van Emden, no Martin, no Thomas... Or is Adam Yates and Van Garderen now the new benchmark for ITT?
 
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Two crucial years in his development, from 22 to 24 years of age.
He also went from doing a few road races on a team where barely anyone could finish a race, to preparing for the Tour de France on a WorldTour team.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
roundabout said:
From 0.5 s/km to 2.6 s/km faster than Cavagna in 2 years. Nice.
Two crucial years in his development, from 22 to 24 years of age. For a guy that has always (since turning 20) done great ITT's for the few ITT he rode. Only once outside the top 10. A former cyclocross (tripple) world champion, guys that do nothing else but go full gas for 1 hour.

This result is far less suspicious than what he and van der Poel did in the spring classics. Because unlike ITT's and cyclocross, a classic isn't about going full gas for an hour, but going the distance, up to 270km.

The ITT field was fairly weak. A lot of top ITT'ers not present (Roglic, Denis, Campenaerts, Lampaert, Van Emden, Froome, Martin, Castroviejo...) and Kiryienka, Moscon and Kwiatkowski taking a day off. The only reference is Dumoulin, but he is recovering from an injury.

As for Cavagna... what exactly did he have to race for? Van Aert was defending two jerseys: green and white. So obviously he was going to go full gas. He scored extra points for the green jersey and took an extra minute for the white jersey.

Also, Campenaerts (who is all about the details in aerodynamics) said that he could clearly see that Van Aert had made a big step forward regarding his bike position.

therealthing said:
Wout Van Aert looking to win this award. One of the most suspicious rides of the year.
If you haven't been following his carreer, sure.
You do know that Cavagna is a year younger, right? So to use your development argument the gap should be closing.

And I love how you play the weak field card and then 1 paragraph later wonder what Cavagna had to race for...
 

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