2019 Giro First Rest Day Discussion

[Eshnar]

After the first 9 stages this is the situation among the GC boys:

2,Primoz Roglic 0s
10,Pello Bilbao 1:42s
11,Vincenzo Nibali 1:44s
12,Bauke Mollema 1:45s
14,Bob Jungels 2:18s
16,Hugh John Carthy 2:46s
17,Davide Formolo 2:52s
18,Rafal Majka 2:53s
19,Sam Oomen 3:12s
20,Richard Carapaz 3:16s
22,Ilnur Zakarin 3:32s
24,Simon Yates 3:46s
25,Tanel Kangert 4:01s
26,Pavel Sivakov 4:11s
27,Miguel Angel Lopez 4:29s
28,Esteban Chaves 4:30s
30,Mikel Landa 4:52s
31,Tao Geoghegan Hart 5:08s

Who's going to win? Discuss

PS: Let me know if the poll is not working
Edit: Poll was not working, now it is fixed.

 

[Red Rick]

Nibali 3 100%

Sometimes I do love this place

 

[Eyeballs Out]

+
20,Richard Carapaz 3:16s

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

+
20,Richard Carapaz 3:16s

oops, thanks!

 

[Eshnar]

somehow I just messed up the poll You guys have to vote again

 

[Lequack]

Re:

Nibali 3 100%

Sometimes I do love this place

If Nibali is riding the Giro he's always the no. 1 favorite.
But everyone knows that great Bauke Mollema is the no. 1 favorite.

 

[Jagartrott]

Who are real climbers here that could surprise?
Majka isn't that far behind and has been flying under the radar. I hope he goes into attacking mode and piles the pressure on Jumbo. Nibali to oversee proceedings, then attack and rip the race apart on the last mountain stage. Snow banks may come into play.

 

[Lequack]

Passo Gavia still under Heavy snow ahead of Stage 16 of the Giro d'Italia

More: http://www.granfondoguide.com/Live/GirodItalia/1/4741/passo-gavia-still-under-heavy-snow-ahead-of-stage-16-of-the-giro-ditalia

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

Who are real climbers here that could surprise?
Majka isn't that far behind and has been flying under the radar. I hope he goes into attacking mode and piles the pressure on Jumbo. Nibali to oversee proceedings, then attack and rip the race apart on the last mountain stage. Snow banks may come into play.

Attacking mode Majka ?
You must be talking about some other rider

 

[Climbing]

Before all, let's hope there will be no cancellations for bad weather.
I've seen very long faces and tired legs already after just one week, I suspect carnage for the rest of the Giro...

 

[Eshnar]

They are clearing the road of Gavia... As long as it doesn't snow heavily this week, it should be on. No point in worrying now... we'll see soon enough.
Also, Vegni has stated a couple of days ago that the plan B does not involve a 2x Mortirolo, but "there are other options", so I assume something like Trivigno and/or some more little climb in the area.

 

[hayneplane]

Re: Re:

Who are real climbers here that could surprise?
Majka isn't that far behind and has been flying under the radar. I hope he goes into attacking mode and piles the pressure on Jumbo. Nibali to oversee proceedings, then attack and rip the race apart on the last mountain stage. Snow banks may come into play.

Attacking mode Majka ?
You must be talking about some other rider

Majka when riding for GC is almost as boring as Meintjes and Van Den Broeck but when he is not riding GC he tends to get in a lot of breaks and be a big challenger for stage wins and the mountains jersey.

If he gets dropped badly in the first mountain stage we could see the entertaining version of Rafal in week 3.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Given the surprisingly large time gaps after nine stages, and in addition to the long stages adding to potential fatigue later, we've had a great deal of rain; then the Giro from Thursday onwards could be chaotic stage after chaotic stage. It could become one of the greatest GT's ever.

On the other hand, if Roglic remains super strong, then it could become one of the most boring GT's ever, with fans bemoaning the early demise of Bernal and/or Dumoulin.

 

[Lequack]

Roglic has to attack, he's 2 minutes behind Conti.

 

[Singer01]

Anybody thinking that all efforts to get the Gavia open for Nibali are not being taken are insane, if there is a foot of snow on it they will be racing it. Nibali needs it, it therefore will be open.

Every piece of evidence points to Roglic winning, but its f'ing Nibali isn't it, who knows what the f'ck will happen.

 

[Climbing]

What evidence?
Let's at least see a proper mountain stage before judging, we don't even know if someone else, instead of Roglic/Nibali, is the strongest climber in this Giro...
It's a very long way to Verona.

 

[Red Rick]

The final ITT is almost the same as in 2010 right?

Gaps were tiny that day, although none of the GC men were also ITT great ITT specialists.

 

[AQETUYIOI]

Re:

Roglic has to attack, he's 2 minutes behind Conti.

Conti won't just loose contact/time?

 

[Lequack]

Re: Re:

Roglic has to attack, he's 2 minutes behind Conti.

Conti won't just loose contact/time?

He has the power of pink jersey.

 

[King Boonen]

Nibali win win. Because Nibali.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

The final ITT is almost the same as in 2010 right?

Gaps were tiny that day, although none of the GC men were also ITT great ITT specialists.

Now 2km longer, same climb. 20ish seconds lost by Nibali to the specialists Larsson (winner) and Pinotti and close to Vino and Cadel, good GT TTers in their time. This Giro I would say about the same difference to Roglic.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Re: Re:

Roglic has to attack, he's 2 minutes behind Conti.

Conti won't just loose contact/time?

Of course he will, Roglic only has to follow the attacks of his main rivals, and Conti will be dropped at some point.
I've no idea who will win. Roglic has an advantage, but there are so many hard stages coming, everything is guess work at this stage. Movistar still have two podium candidates, that could play in their favour. I consider that duo stronger than the Yates/Chavez and Bilbao/MAL duos, but could be wrong of course. There's also Carthy/Kangert, SIvakov/Hart, but...no.

 

[Singer01]

Re:

What evidence?
Let's at least see a proper mountain stage before judging, we don't even know if someone else, instead of Roglic/Nibali, is the strongest climber in this Giro...
It's a very long way to Verona.

2019 so far, where Roglic has been amazing every time he's sat on a bike.
Assuming final TT follows form Nibali has to take approx. 2.5 mins from Roglic. It should be a great week and a bit.

 

[Rollthedice]

Nibali will win but contrary to expectations in a less spectacular way. One mandatory stage win, will be in Como. Roglic will not fade per se but will be ambushed, isolated and make some wrong decisions on who to follow though he will be on the podium together with Yates.

 

[Lequack]

Meanwhile this was the scenes in Tour of California in the mountain stage.
https://twitter.com/Eurosport_DE/status/1129718205013004289

Hopefully we can expect something similar at the Giro?