2019 Giro First Rest Day Discussion

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Who is gonna win?

  • Roglic

    Votes: 40 42.6%
  • Nibali

    Votes: 36 38.3%
  • Mollema

    Votes: 3 3.2%
  • Majka

    Votes: 2 2.1%
  • Carapaz

    Votes: 3 3.2%
  • Yates

    Votes: 3 3.2%
  • Lopez

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Landa

    Votes: 4 4.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 2 2.1%

  • Total voters
    94
  • Poll closed .
damian13ster said:
Majka lost 30-40s more than I expected in the TT. Most likely due to not being great in rain, not confident in staying upright (losses in first sector and good times in the remaining 2).
Now I think Bora will go to attack, starting with Formolo and seeing how others react.
I think Majka will go first with make or brake attitude.
Formolo would rather be more conservative.
Yates, MAL will go bonkers imho. Absolutely no reason not to do so. The last week should be fun.
Of course! Add Carapaz, Landani, Skyneos boys...
I dont' think Jumbo will be able to control break on every stage. :)
Forget gaps [;
 
klintE said:
damian13ster said:
Majka lost 30-40s more than I expected in the TT. Most likely due to not being great in rain, not confident in staying upright (losses in first sector and good times in the remaining 2).
Now I think Bora will go to attack, starting with Formolo and seeing how others react.
I think Majka will go first with make or brake attitude.
Formolo would rather be more conservative.
Yates, MAL will go bonkers imho. Absolutely no reason not to do so. The last week should be fun.
Of course! Add Carapaz, Landani, Skyneos boys...
I dont' think Jumbo will be able to control break on every stage. :)
Forget gaps [;

It would make sense for Majka to go first as other than podium and/or stage win, nothing should matter for him. Another top 5 does nothing. He is not very aggressive though by nature so think Bora would send Formolo first, who is also a weaker rider
 
I still think Yates will win this Giro, we haven’t had a single mountain stage, not one. Roglic, and more to the point, his team haven’t been tested yet. Got a feeling Roglic will be doing a lot of work on his own which will be a big part of his downfall. The problem with being so far ahead is everyone knows who to attack, and we are a long way out from Verona.
 
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Poursuivant said:
I still think Yates will win this Giro, we haven’t had a single mountain stage, not one. Roglic, and more to the point, his team haven’t been tested yet. Got a feeling Roglic will be doing a lot of work on his own which will be a big part of his downfall. The problem with being so far ahead is everyone knows who to attack, and we are a long way out from Verona.
This sort of situation (isolated against a bunch of climbers with minimal team support) is where Dumoulin thrives. Roglic hasn't been in this position before and had already lost his most important domestique. He'll have to be very smart about who to follow and who to let go, and hope Pozzovivo and Caruso do a lot of the work for him. It's not an easy spot to be in with Astana, MS and Movistar all potentially having more than one option to worry about.
 
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Pirazziattacks said:
Poursuivant said:
I still think Yates will win this Giro, we haven’t had a single mountain stage, not one. Roglic, and more to the point, his team haven’t been tested yet. Got a feeling Roglic will be doing a lot of work on his own which will be a big part of his downfall. The problem with being so far ahead is everyone knows who to attack, and we are a long way out from Verona.
This sort of situation (isolated against a bunch of climbers with minimal team support) is where Dumoulin thrives. Roglic hasn't been in this position before and had already lost his most important domestique. He'll have to be very smart about who to follow and who to let go, and hope Pozzovivo and Caruso do a lot of the work for him. It's not an easy spot to be in with Astana, MS and Movistar all potentially having more than one option to worry about.
I think we'll also find out how much of a help Kuss can be for Roglic in the mountains. I think he's a big unknown factor in the Giro. If he can be there in the mountains for Roglic that will help him out a lot.
 
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Pirazziattacks said:
Poursuivant said:
I still think Yates will win this Giro, we haven’t had a single mountain stage, not one. Roglic, and more to the point, his team haven’t been tested yet. Got a feeling Roglic will be doing a lot of work on his own which will be a big part of his downfall. The problem with being so far ahead is everyone knows who to attack, and we are a long way out from Verona.
This sort of situation (isolated against a bunch of climbers with minimal team support) is where Dumoulin thrives..
? He lost the vuelta in exactly those circumstances.
 
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Singer01 said:
Pirazziattacks said:
Poursuivant said:
I still think Yates will win this Giro, we haven’t had a single mountain stage, not one. Roglic, and more to the point, his team haven’t been tested yet. Got a feeling Roglic will be doing a lot of work on his own which will be a big part of his downfall. The problem with being so far ahead is everyone knows who to attack, and we are a long way out from Verona.
This sort of situation (isolated against a bunch of climbers with minimal team support) is where Dumoulin thrives..
? He lost the vuelta in exactly those circumstances.
He doesn't know any other circumstances
 
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Squire said:
Oude Geuze said:
I think people are underestimating the gaps here, it’s Nibali vs Roglic bar any accidents. I’m rooting for both about equally, but looking forward to the fight! Yates is out, not even in the extreme form of last year did he put minutes into top contenders in one stage.
I agree. The only one you can remotely imagine being capable of bringing back minutes in the mountains is Lopez (and perhaps the mythical version of Landa that we haven't really seen), and even that is hard to see happening now.

That is, of course, assuming Roglic (and Nibali) doesn't crack big time. Which, considering it's the Giro after all, is quite possible.
This and this. What happened on stage 19 last year isn't something that normally happens, and Chris Froome is not in the race. The great thing for Roglic is that he only really needs to watch one man: Nibali. And even then, he doesn't have to keep him on the tightest leash necessarily. Roglic can race reasonably conservatively, and as long as he remains reasonably strong, he will be hard to beat, even if he isn't the strongest climber. These other guys are HUGE time behind. Say Lopez goes up the road early on stage 14, and is crazy strong, gains five minutes and moves into Pink. As unlikley as that already is, he would probably pay for that attack on stage 15, or during week three. Anyone outside of Nibali is either going to have to have a crazy almost Landis like stage somewhere (and still stay consistent on the other stages), or be very, very strong on multiple mountain stages. Sure, we don't know exactly what climbing legs Roglic and Nibali have in this race, but we can be fairly certain that they will both be able to climb to at least a reasonable level (based on their career history, and even recent climbing in stage race Giro lead ups). Therefore it seems very unlikely for someone other than Roglic and Nibali to win this Giro at this point, without them having a bad crash or a really bad day at the worst time.
 
Obviously Roglic is a worthy favourite, but I still think Nibali or Yates will win. I think Yates or Lopez will prove to be the best climber in the race.

I was surprised that Roglic lost over a minute to Froome and Dumoulin (and the podium) and even finished behind Zakarin in the final ITT in France last year. He will have to dig a lot deeper in this Giro, and I suspect he will crumble. He has no team to speak of.

There are a number of teams that can mount a double assault on Roglic.

Astana with Bilbao and Lopez
Bora with Majka and Formolo
Mitchelton Scott with Yates and Chaves
Movistar with Carapaz and Landa
Ineos with Sivakov and Geoghegan Hart

Even EF with Kangert and Carthy

What happens if Kangert TGH and Formolo go away in the early part of the climb to Lago Serru?

Then what happens if an attack of Sivakov, Chaves and Landa goes in the early part of San Carlo?

This Giro is far from over. In fact, I think it is beautifully poised.
 
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barmaher said:
Obviously Roglic is a worthy favourite, but I still think Nibali or Yates will win. I think Yates or Lopez will prove to be the best climber in the race.

I was surprised that Roglic lost over a minute to Froome and Dumoulin (and the podium) and even finished behind Zakarin in the final ITT in France last year. He will have to dig a lot deeper in this Giro, and I suspect he will crumble. He has no team to speak of.

There are a number of teams that can mount a double assault on Roglic.

Astana with Bilbao and Lopez
Bora with Majka and Formolo
Mitchelton Scott with Yates and Chaves
Movistar with Carapaz and Landa
Ineos with Sivakov and Geoghegan Hart

Even EF with Kangert and Carthy

What happens if Kangert TGH and Formolo go away in the early part of the climb to Lago Serru?

Then what happens if an attack of Sivakov, Chaves and Landa goes in the early part of San Carlo?

This Giro is far from over. In fact, I think it is beautifully poised.

I think he was riding injured in that ITT. Anyone know for sure?
 
In the meantime horrible news, Vegni said that Gavia looking good, 60% chance of it happening…
Knowing how much of a pussy he is, that pretty much confirms Gavia cancellation…
Almost admitted plan B is nowhere comparable…
 
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gregrowlerson said:
Squire said:
Oude Geuze said:
I think people are underestimating the gaps here, it’s Nibali vs Roglic bar any accidents. I’m rooting for both about equally, but looking forward to the fight! Yates is out, not even in the extreme form of last year did he put minutes into top contenders in one stage.
I agree. The only one you can remotely imagine being capable of bringing back minutes in the mountains is Lopez (and perhaps the mythical version of Landa that we haven't really seen), and even that is hard to see happening now.

That is, of course, assuming Roglic (and Nibali) doesn't crack big time. Which, considering it's the Giro after all, is quite possible.
This and this. What happened on stage 19 last year isn't something that normally happens, and Chris Froome is not in the race. The great thing for Roglic is that he only really needs to watch one man: Nibali. And even then, he doesn't have to keep him on the tightest leash necessarily. Roglic can race reasonably conservatively, and as long as he remains reasonably strong, he will be hard to beat, even if he isn't the strongest climber. These other guys are HUGE time behind. Say Lopez goes up the road early on stage 14, and is crazy strong, gains five minutes and moves into Pink. As unlikley as that already is, he would probably pay for that attack on stage 15, or during week three. Anyone outside of Nibali is either going to have to have a crazy almost Landis like stage somewhere (and still stay consistent on the other stages), or be very, very strong on multiple mountain stages. Sure, we don't know exactly what climbing legs Roglic and Nibali have in this race, but we can be fairly certain that they will both be able to climb to at least a reasonable level (based on their career history, and even recent climbing in stage race Giro lead ups). Therefore it seems very unlikely for someone other than Roglic and Nibali to win this Giro at this point, without them having a bad crash or a really bad day at the worst time.
To you maybe, to me it doesn't seem that way. I will wait for this weekend to see the climbing legs of the main contenders...
 
Still Nibali versus Dumoulin. Tom is unlikely to make a comeback (he's not Froome), so I'll go for Nibs. Roglic won't fade, he just won't be good enough tactics and endurance wise. Mal, Yates and Landa will give us some excitement. It starts Friday.
 
Apr 23, 2018
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topcat said:
Still Nibali versus Dumoulin. Tom is unlikely to make a comeback (he's not Froome), so I'll go for Nibs. Roglic won't fade, he just won't be good enough tactics and endurance wise. Mal, Yates and Landa will give us some excitement. It starts Friday.
I thought Dumoulin went home already?
 
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fuiers said:
topcat said:
Still Nibali versus Dumoulin. Tom is unlikely to make a comeback (he's not Froome), so I'll go for Nibs. Roglic won't fade, he just won't be good enough tactics and endurance wise. Mal, Yates and Landa will give us some excitement. It starts Friday.
I thought Dumoulin went home already?
Dumoulin also thought that, but apparently .. :p
 
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fuiers said:
topcat said:
Still Nibali versus Dumoulin. Tom is unlikely to make a comeback (he's not Froome), so I'll go for Nibs. Roglic won't fade, he just won't be good enough tactics and endurance wise. Mal, Yates and Landa will give us some excitement. It starts Friday.
I thought Dumoulin went home already?
Which makes the bolded absolutely true, furthering the genius of the prediction
 
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