2019 Giro First Rest Day Discussion

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Who is gonna win?

  • Roglic

    Votes: 40 42.6%
  • Nibali

    Votes: 36 38.3%
  • Mollema

    Votes: 3 3.2%
  • Majka

    Votes: 2 2.1%
  • Carapaz

    Votes: 3 3.2%
  • Yates

    Votes: 3 3.2%
  • Lopez

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Landa

    Votes: 4 4.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 2 2.1%

  • Total voters
    94
  • Poll closed .
Aug 6, 2015
369
8
3,045
Re: Re:

HelloDolly said:
Jagartrott said:
Who are real climbers here that could surprise?
Majka isn't that far behind and has been flying under the radar. I hope he goes into attacking mode and piles the pressure on Jumbo. Nibali to oversee proceedings, then attack and rip the race apart on the last mountain stage. Snow banks may come into play.

Attacking mode Majka ?
You must be talking about some other rider
This years Majka might be more interesting actually. We've seen some promise in Tour of the Alps. He is clearly in better form than he was in last 2 seasons. And with form comes confidence and ability to attack.
 
Re: Re:

HelloDolly said:
Jagartrott said:
Who are real climbers here that could surprise?
Majka isn't that far behind and has been flying under the radar. I hope he goes into attacking mode and piles the pressure on Jumbo. Nibali to oversee proceedings, then attack and rip the race apart on the last mountain stage. Snow banks may come into play.

Attacking mode Majka ?
You must be talking about some other rider
I've had nightmares of attacking mode climbers vs defending mode Mollema
 
I'm going with Nibali, he looks really solid so far.

This joking about Nibali voodoo basically just means that whatever bad stuff happens during 3 weeks, he's rarely involved because his experience tells him when to be at the front and when to keep back, when to go all-out and when to pace himself, etc.
 
Astana have the strongest team by a mile

Pello and MAL are top climbers but rest of the team are very good.
I think they will come out winging on first MTF
I think both Pello & MALwill be up there on GC which I hope will prove difficult for Roglic
Nibali has to be very patient and a bit cunning....just like a shark

Kangert & Carty look good for a top 10
 
#Giro - Nibali: "Roglic showed in several occasions to have some little gap on climbs. Last year in Lombardia he attacked first then he went in crisis. At tour in Alpe d'Huez stage he was always in my wheel and I was in pain. Until now he found terrain for his skills" (Corriere)

Nibali looking for weaknesses. :)
 
Re:

HelloDolly said:
Astana have the strongest team by a mile

Pello and MAL are top climbers but rest of the team are very good.
I think they will come out winging on first MTF
I think both Pello & MALwill be up there on GC which I hope will prove difficult for Roglic
Nibali has to be very patient and a bit cunning....just like a shark

Kangert & Carty look good for a top 10
There was an interview with Vino yesterday. He sounded like we can expect absolute havoc over the next two weeks. But first another two televised rest days. :eek:
 
Heart says Nibali, but Roglic is mighty strong. Big gaps to most podium contenders, that is a surprise. I'm still unsure about Nibali, I'm afraid that he may fade, that he's overachieving and will get back to Earth, that he no longer is as good as he was. Fingers crossed.

I won't vote, won't jinx anyone, but as always, the Giro will deliver drama. These snow walls call for legendary moments. No doubt that Yates will attack. When will the others (MAL, Chaves, Zak, Bauke, Jungels) begin watching their GC standing and ride defensively? They may neutralize one another.

Roglic, Nibali, Yates I guess, in what order? I don't know.
 
Re: Re:

Max Rockatansky said:
HelloDolly said:
Astana have the strongest team by a mile

Pello and MAL are top climbers but rest of the team are very good.
I think they will come out winging on first MTF
I think both Pello & MALwill be up there on GC which I hope will prove difficult for Roglic
Nibali has to be very patient and a bit cunning....just like a shark

Kangert & Carty look good for a top 10
There was an interview with Vino yesterday. He sounded like we can expect absolute havoc over the next two weeks. But first another two televised rest days. :eek:
I have great expectations for Astana... I'm very happy that MAL lost a lot of time (nothing personal), that guarantees Astana have to go ham at every occasion.
 
Re: Re:

Eshnar said:
Max Rockatansky said:
HelloDolly said:
Astana have the strongest team by a mile

Pello and MAL are top climbers but rest of the team are very good.
I think they will come out winging on first MTF
I think both Pello & MALwill be up there on GC which I hope will prove difficult for Roglic
Nibali has to be very patient and a bit cunning....just like a shark

Kangert & Carty look good for a top 10
There was an interview with Vino yesterday. He sounded like we can expect absolute havoc over the next two weeks. But first another two televised rest days. :eek:
I have great expectations for Astana... I'm very happy that MAL lost a lot of time (nothing personal), that guarantees Astana have to go ham at every occasion.
Yes, but his descending could be a problem on a few stages, others could catch him on a tricky descent.
 
Re:

Blanco said:
Strongest climber will win this bike race, and I have a feeling it won't be Roglic nor Nibali, no matter how big time gaps are atm.
That could happen, I just don't see Yates gaining 2min on Nibali in the high mountains with those super hard stages.
The Movistar duo could still do a lot of damage, if Landa has his 2015 legs and goes on a long range attack Carapaz can just follow wheels and attack them near the end of the stage.
 
Feel like this ITT is a stronger predictor of form for Nibali and Mollema than for Roglic. I've dug into his ITT results winning this ITT is no outlier by any stretch of the imagination. Nibali in fact usually loses a bunch more than 1.2s per minute to the winner in GT ITTs
 
I see no evidence of Roglic ever losing a lot of time in the mountains when going for GC which is why I make him overwhelming favourite

Obviously Nibali could possibly chip away at his lead or an ambush could take place, or a loss of form due to trying holding form to long, however I dont think these are likely
 
Re:

Blanco said:
Strongest climber will win this bike race, and I have a feeling it won't be Roglic nor Nibali, no matter how big time gaps are atm.
You could very well be true, and the question besides race tactics may be: is Roglic as good a climber as Dumoulin? If the answer is yes, looking back at the Zonc stage last year, even a brutal MTF won't do much to erase Roglic's advantage. It may actually come down to being the freshest rider, not the best at any exercise.
 
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