2019 Tour de France, stage 3: Binche - Epernay, 215km

[Flamin]

Nice stage, pretty unpredictable. This would have been one for peak Sagan but now I'm going with Alaphilippe.

I wonder how far Ewan can go in a stage like this.

 

[Red Rick]

Is it me or is this finish similar to the Rodez one which is this bizarre little sprint where some GC dudes lose up to 20s in 500m to some uphill sprinter

 

[hayneplane]

Should be a fun finale. Interesting to see how Jumbo Visma ride it as WVA is their best rider for a final like this but Teunissen is in Yellow and clearly flying but the GC priority is Steven Kruijswijk.

Lots of riders will fancy it and if it’s raced hard enough then it could tip towards the GC oriented pinchers like Adam Yates and Dan Martin plus Fuglsang if not too badly affected by the crash wounds.

 

[hayneplane]

Re:

Is it me or is this finish similar to the Rodez one which is this bizarre little sprint where some GC dudes lose up to 20s in 500m to some uphill sprinter

If I remember rightly that was 500m@10% and GVA held off Sagan for the win

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Is it me or is this finish similar to the Rodez one which is this bizarre little sprint where some GC dudes lose up to 20s in 500m to some uphill sprinter

If I remember rightly that was 500m@10% and GVA held off Sagan for the win

Yep, that was a really foolish finish by Sagan who stopped his effort when he got to the wheel of GVA because he thought it was too early to go full. Then of course he couldn't accelerate again. That was 2015.

In 2017, Matthews steamrolled the opposition on the same finish.

Alaphilippe didn't participate in the Tour those two years, but it does seem to be up his alley. But I'm clinging to Sagan - it must be short enough for him to still have the edge.

 

[Sestriere]

Teams like AG2R, Movistar or Trek are already on the back foot. Sometimes I wish teams in similar situations would not wait for the most obvious places to try and get back time. They could benefit from a surprise attack on intermediate terrain far more than finding themselves tempo'ed to death behind Skyneos train once more later in the race. I say, AG2R should go for it already tomorrow! If it doesn't work Bardet won't lose any time, but he could very well catch someone off guard.

 

[Keram]

Re: Re:

It's Valverde vs Alaphilippe stage...

Maybe for second.

This is going to be Sagan's win. He may not relish the very steep Mutigny but he has plenty of time to get back, should he be dropped (which is unlikely).

Yes, we will see if he is in his peak form. Or we will see some late attack and we can only guess :lol:

 

[fauniera]

This finish is made for Jesus Herrada.

Too hard for Sagan, i think.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Teams like AG2R, Movistar or Trek are already on the back foot. Sometimes I wish teams in similar situations would not wait for the most obvious places to try and get back time. They could benefit from a surprise attack on intermediate terrain far more than finding themselves tempo'ed to death behind Skyneos train once more later in the race. I say, AG2R should go for it already tomorrow! If it doesn't work Bardet won't lose any time, but he could very well catch someone off guard.

Agree 100%. Bardet lost so much time today, there's still the ITT, he must take time back sooner rather than later. And AG2R needs a boost of morale. Big time.

Sagan-GVA-Alaf'-The Don seem like obvious picks. There will be some small time gaps, and small time gaps can add up over three weeks. I'm curious to see which GC contenders win a little, which ones lose a little. Besides Bardet, Martin, Yates, maybe Pinot have a card to play.

 

[HelloDolly]

Well there a few riders who could have a good shot tomorrow
I think the break will be brought back before the final bonus seconds point and then there will be a few attacks

Kwaito & Moscon may fancy it but Ineos may not let them off
Allaphillipe & GVA are potential winners as is van Aert or Sagan

Lotto Soudal's Wellens and Benoot may try and Uran/Woods are also good bets
Valverde, Tuens, Nibali & Michael Matthews also possibles

But my favourite is Kasper Asgreen

 

[SHAD0W93]

I'm throwing a curve ball and saying Kreuziger solo.

 

[hammerthaim]

Schamann or Sagan will win this.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

this should be fun for a monday..
Betiol ftw
Aert in yellow...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Some people make WVA out to be some kind of lightweight puncheur or something. I guess it's actually possible that he takes yellow (though Teunissen seems to be on fire and the yellow jersey is the best kind of placebo). But i have a harder time seeing him outpunch Alaphilippe, Teuns, Valverde... I could also see an actual GC guy take the stage and yellow.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Sagan against Alaf. Matthews looked knackered after the TTT, so I don't think he will be recovered.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

Re:

Nice stage, pretty unpredictable. This would have been one for peak Sagan but now I'm going with Alaphilippe.

I wonder how far Ewan can go in a stage like this.

I'm surprised Ewan hasn't been mentioned by anyone else, he was by far the quickest when Carapaz won on a similar finish at the Giro but just left his sprint too late.

 

[movingtarget]

Some of the sprinters should still be there at the finish but Ala and Valverde will fancy their chances. With the long flat section on dodgy roads hopefully no silly crashes for the GC riders. Don't see a break surviving.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Nice stage, pretty unpredictable. This would have been one for peak Sagan but now I'm going with Alaphilippe.

I wonder how far Ewan can go in a stage like this.

I'm surprised Ewan hasn't been mentioned by anyone else, he was by far the quickest when Carapaz won on a similar finish at the Giro but just left his sprint too late.

I think he is a definite chance. His climbing has improved.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Nice stage, pretty unpredictable. This would have been one for peak Sagan but now I'm going with Alaphilippe.

I wonder how far Ewan can go in a stage like this.

I'm surprised Ewan hasn't been mentioned by anyone else, he was by far the quickest when Carapaz won on a similar finish at the Giro but just left his sprint too late.

That Frascati finish didn't have 4 cat 3 or 4 climbs in the final 40km. If Ewen gets to Epernay with the leaders, he'll be in contention. But he won't get to Epernay with the leaders.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1147981544117678080

Last 300 meters at 10%.

 

[yaco]

I wouldn't completely rule out Ewan - Have seen him make this type of finish before, though he may save his energy for another day.

 

[rghysens]

Re:

Some people make WVA out to be some kind of lightweight puncheur or something. I guess it's actually possible that he takes yellow (though Teunissen seems to be on fire and the yellow jersey is the best kind of placebo). But i have a harder time seeing him outpunch Alaphilippe, Teuns, Valverde... I could also see an actual GC guy take the stage and yellow.

It's not like they finish on the Mur de Huy or something like that. This finish is slightly easier than the one in Rodez.


Hoping that Astana wreaks havoc in the final.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Some people make WVA out to be some kind of lightweight puncheur or something. I guess it's actually possible that he takes yellow (though Teunissen seems to be on fire and the yellow jersey is the best kind of placebo). But i have a harder time seeing him outpunch Alaphilippe, Teuns, Valverde... I could also see an actual GC guy take the stage and yellow.

It's not like they finish on the Mur de Huy or something like that. This finish is slightly easier than the one in Rodez.


Hoping that Astana wreaks havoc in the final.

The finish is easier. The climbs before add up to 5.7km at 8%. If there was a climb with those numbers summiting 30km from the finish, nobody would give Ewan a shout.

Speaking of Rodez, Dan Martin finished 8th there in 2017. He finished 3rd at Longwy that year behind Sagan and Matthews, and 6th at Quimper last year. All of those had similar climbing to the finish line, but less in the final hour of racing than tomorrow.

I'm not saying Martin's going to win, but I think it's a stage he probably circled when the route came out and said "I'll get some bonus time back from my losses in the TTT there."

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

Some people make WVA out to be some kind of lightweight puncheur or something. I guess it's actually possible that he takes yellow (though Teunissen seems to be on fire and the yellow jersey is the best kind of placebo). But i have a harder time seeing him outpunch Alaphilippe, Teuns, Valverde... I could also see an actual GC guy take the stage and yellow.

It's not like they finish on the Mur de Huy or something like that. This finish is slightly easier than the one in Rodez.


Hoping that Astana wreaks havoc in the final.

Would be an interesting move, considering Fuglsang's crash. Hope you're right, though.

I think some (wannabe) GC guys will lose time today, if at least one team really goes for it. Porte looked pretty bad in the TTT, along with a few others. Kruijswijk is not the best at this, but his form may be sufficient. Or not.

 

[Salvarani]

Last 50km could be quite hectic. Especially if there are splits over the climbs.