2019 UCI Road World Championships Men's Road Race : 284.5km

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'll be surprised as well if a group of 20 formed with 100 to go only.
Might happened initially but more riders might come back from behind.

I’d be surprised if a group of 20 formed with 100 to go, and were coordinated enough to stay clear and keep the pace up enough to not allow anyone behind to get back into the race.

Personally, i'd be surprised if many guys that get dropped before then, will get back into the race later on. The course seems to be too hard for that, and if the weather is going to be brutal too, it's even less likely. So, IF such a group would be formed around 200k, meaning other riders get dropped because they are not good enough, i don't think there's much "coming back". Especially with nearly 200k in the legs and it's not like the final 100k will be flat and easy rolling. There was no coming back in the mens U23. There was no coming back in the womens race either. Van Avermaet even mentioned it as well i think. If you miss the main break/group, it could very well be game over.

Wiggo agrees. Brad's hall of fame for 2019 are Gilbert's Roubaix, Van der Poel's Amstel and Nibali at Val Thorens.

Any such list without Pogacar's 3rd Vuelta stage win, and Remco's San Sebastian immediately goes out the window imo

 

[movingtarget]

I liked Gilbert's form in the Vuelta. Not sure about Sagan and Matthews on this circuit. Valverde and Ala should be up there. Very hard to pick a possible podium for this one.

 

[Koronin]

Gilbert is still my favorite.
MvdP has a good chance at it as well.
Valverde's biggest issue is going to be the weather. He hates bad weather and typically struggles more in that type of weather. (Whereas he thrives in the sun and heat.) However, i expect he will still be in the mix.
With the weather it could throw someone totally unexpected into the mix as well.

 

[Juan Pelota]

Fuglsang and Alaphalippe would be the big favorites with MVDP if they have regained their form from earlier in the season..

Gilbert is on good form now, and you can never count out Valverde, GVA or Sagan.

 

[IndianCyclist]

*** MVDP, Gilbert
** Fulgsang
* Alaphillipe, Valverde, Mathews, Dark Horse
This course may be too hard for the likes of Sagan, GVA or any of the northern specialists and with rain & freshness being major factors

 

[Koronin]

*** MVDP, Gilbert
** Fulgsang
* Alaphillipe, Valverde, Mathews, Dark Horse
This course may be too hard for the likes of Sagan, GVA or any of the northern specialists and with rain & freshness being major factors

Don't forget Van Avermaet won the Olympics on a course that was thought to be too hard for him, so I wouldn't fully discount him. I do agree there will be someone unexpected will be there.

 

[claude cat]

Front end of the race is going to be nasty.

 

[movingtarget]

*** MVDP, Gilbert
** Fulgsang
* Alaphillipe, Valverde, Mathews, Dark Horse
This course may be too hard for the likes of Sagan, GVA or any of the northern specialists and with rain & freshness being major factors

This will be tough for a young rider like MVDP. I think Fuglsang might have had enough this season. GVA would have to find his best form for a chance in this. A surprise winner would be no surprise.

 

[wirral]

The last really big one day road race to be held in England was won by a Kazakh. His protégé has a chance today.

 

[The Hegelian]

Don't forget Van Avermaet won the Olympics on a course that was thought to be too hard for him, so I wouldn't fully discount him. I do agree there will be someone unexpected will be there.

Yeah, I think GVA has a big chance. He was good in Canada, I think the parcours suit and the longer the race is, the more likely his sprint will deliver.

 

[The Hegelian]

Will give it a crack:

****Gilbert, Sagan, Allaphillipe.
***GVA, Trentin, Matthews.
**MVDP, Valverde.

No more: one of these guys will win.

 

[Pantani_lives]

One of the Belgians will probably attack quite early. Officially they have two leaders, but in reality seven of those eight are stealthily hoping to win by themselves. Tim Declercq will be the only one who's 100% committed to working for the others. It can be a matter of being away first, to avoid having to sit back in a pursuing group.

The Dutch have one clear leader, MvdP, but they have eight riders from seven different teams - only Jumbo has two. The question is whether they will really ride like a team with one leader.

The presence of a DQSt leader in several national teams can be a tactical issue: Alaphilippe, Stybar, Asgreen, Gilbert, Evenepoel... I don't see them actively chasing each other.

 

[SafeBet]

I'm not fully on the Gilbert hype list for today. His Vuelta wins were impressive but this is a whole different level of competition and the composition of the Belgium team is such that he might not even be in the position to challenge for the win, depending on how the race develops. Also, his last big win in a race similar to this happened more than two years ago.

I'm not saying it's impossible but to me he's not in the same tier as Alaphilippe, Sagan or Van der Poel.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Think there's gonna be quite a bit of localised flooding, so if there are any triathletes among the riders who are good swimmers, they will have a good chance today. Gonna say less than 40 riders will finish today and the winner will be Danish. My tuppence worth.

 

[Koronin]

Apparently they are looking at changing the course due to the rain.
With possible flooding, MvdP may be the best pick to win.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

260km instead of 280... 2 climbs out.

Suddenly looking good for Bennett and Kristoff
No Grinton Moor or Buttertubs

 

[Breezy1985]

260km instead of 280... 2 climbs out.

Suddenly looking good for Bennett and Kristoff
No Grinton Moor or Buttertubs

2 extra laps of circuit too

 

[Koronin]

This is looking more like a northern classics course than an Amstel or Richmond course now. It's now also going to be what appears to be a good bit easier course as well.

 

[DNP-Old]

Only had a few years to plan this, but nope, lets make some last minute changes because it’s raining in England in late September. Who could have known that would happen?!

 

[Alexandre B.]

Still a shitty weather, so the race will be hard nonetheless.

 

[Koronin]

Only had a few years to plan this, but nope, lets make some last minute changes because it’s raining in England in late September. Who could have known that would happen?!

The first mistake was putting it in England in the late September. They should have expected a lot of rain.

 

[Koronin]

I'm liking my pick of Gilbert even more now. Although I think this makes it better for van Avermaet as well.

 

[RedheadDane]

Apparently they are looking at changing the course due to the rain.
With possible flooding, MvdP may be the best pick to win.

I'm not 100% sure, but it's possible there is flooding.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Only had a few years to plan this, but nope, lets make some last minute changes because it’s raining in England in late September. Who could have known that would happen?!

Can we blame Velon for this one?

 

[Simurgh]

I think that Stybar could do very well (top 10 at the very least) today, but Van Avermaet looks like the favorite to me, Van Der Poel and Alaphilippe main challengers.