2019 UCI Road World Championships Men's Road Race : 284.5km

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I'll be surprised as well if a group of 20 formed with 100 to go only.
Might happened initially but more riders might come back from behind.
I’d be surprised if a group of 20 formed with 100 to go, and were coordinated enough to stay clear and keep the pace up enough to not allow anyone behind to get back into the race.
Personally, i'd be surprised if many guys that get dropped before then, will get back into the race later on. The course seems to be too hard for that, and if the weather is going to be brutal too, it's even less likely. So, IF such a group would be formed around 200k, meaning other riders get dropped because they are not good enough, i don't think there's much "coming back". Especially with nearly 200k in the legs and it's not like the final 100k will be flat and easy rolling. There was no coming back in the mens U23. There was no coming back in the womens race either. Van Avermaet even mentioned it as well i think. If you miss the main break/group, it could very well be game over.

Wiggo agrees. Brad's hall of fame for 2019 are Gilbert's Roubaix, Van der Poel's Amstel and Nibali at Val Thorens.
Any such list without Pogacar's 3rd Vuelta stage win, and Remco's San Sebastian immediately goes out the window imo :laughing:;)
 
Reactions: hayneplane
Gilbert is still my favorite.
MvdP has a good chance at it as well.
Valverde's biggest issue is going to be the weather. He hates bad weather and typically struggles more in that type of weather. (Whereas he thrives in the sun and heat.) However, i expect he will still be in the mix.
With the weather it could throw someone totally unexpected into the mix as well.
 
Fuglsang and Alaphalippe would be the big favorites with MVDP if they have regained their form from earlier in the season..

Gilbert is on good form now, and you can never count out Valverde, GVA or Sagan.
 
*** MVDP, Gilbert
** Fulgsang
* Alaphillipe, Valverde, Mathews, Dark Horse
This course may be too hard for the likes of Sagan, GVA or any of the northern specialists and with rain & freshness being major factors
Don't forget Van Avermaet won the Olympics on a course that was thought to be too hard for him, so I wouldn't fully discount him. I do agree there will be someone unexpected will be there.
 
*** MVDP, Gilbert
** Fulgsang
* Alaphillipe, Valverde, Mathews, Dark Horse
This course may be too hard for the likes of Sagan, GVA or any of the northern specialists and with rain & freshness being major factors
This will be tough for a young rider like MVDP. I think Fuglsang might have had enough this season. GVA would have to find his best form for a chance in this. A surprise winner would be no surprise.
 
Don't forget Van Avermaet won the Olympics on a course that was thought to be too hard for him, so I wouldn't fully discount him. I do agree there will be someone unexpected will be there.
Yeah, I think GVA has a big chance. He was good in Canada, I think the parcours suit and the longer the race is, the more likely his sprint will deliver.
 
One of the Belgians will probably attack quite early. Officially they have two leaders, but in reality seven of those eight are stealthily hoping to win by themselves. Tim Declercq will be the only one who's 100% committed to working for the others. It can be a matter of being away first, to avoid having to sit back in a pursuing group.

The Dutch have one clear leader, MvdP, but they have eight riders from seven different teams - only Jumbo has two. The question is whether they will really ride like a team with one leader.

The presence of a DQSt leader in several national teams can be a tactical issue: Alaphilippe, Stybar, Asgreen, Gilbert, Evenepoel... I don't see them actively chasing each other.
 
I'm not fully on the Gilbert hype list for today. His Vuelta wins were impressive but this is a whole different level of competition and the composition of the Belgium team is such that he might not even be in the position to challenge for the win, depending on how the race develops. Also, his last big win in a race similar to this happened more than two years ago.

I'm not saying it's impossible but to me he's not in the same tier as Alaphilippe, Sagan or Van der Poel.
 
Reactions: jaylew
Think there's gonna be quite a bit of localised flooding, so if there are any triathletes among the riders who are good swimmers, they will have a good chance today. Gonna say less than 40 riders will finish today and the winner will be Danish. My tuppence worth.
 

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