2020 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Monreale – Palermo 15 km ITT

C'mon guys, I don't have time to open every stage thread...
From the Analysis thread

Stage 1: Monreale – Palermo 15 km ITT
Saturday, October 3rd, 13:15 CEST





Technical Overview:

The 2020 Giro d’Italia starts in Sicily, with a short but pretty interesting individual time trial from Monreale to the region capital, Palermo. It is a TT for specialists, but the profile is quite unusual. The riders will start climbing immediately towards the cathedral of Monreale (GPM4, 1.1 km at 5.6%), which serves as the first categorized climb of the race and features some serious ramps in the final stretch, on cobbles. After reaching the cathedral, it’s all downhill towards Palermo. The first 3 km are a flat-out descent which only features two hairpins, and it is followed by 6 km of descending false flat on a completely straight road, all the way to the heart of Palermo and the second intermediate checkpoint. Here, there is a 90-deg turn to the left that leads to the last 6 km sector of the stage, all in the center of Palermo, mostly again on straight roads but with a couple of twists, including a U-turn at 2 km to go, which is also the last turn of the route.




The Climbs:

Monreale Cathedral: GPM4, 1.1 km at 5.6%

A short climb with increasing gradients. The last 250m are cobbled and above 10%. We have no profile.

What to expect:

It’s a time trial for specialists, that’s for sure. The first little climb will be interesting for the first blue jersey, but the gaps there should be limited. The last 11 km are almost completely straight and flat, so gaps between the heavy and the light guys should be pretty consistent.


The Cathedral of Monreale
 
Start times are available here: https://rowery.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/giro2020-lisstart-01.pdf

GC guys:

26 151 10007524251 MEINTJES Louis RSA NTT 13:40:00
42 131 10055330194 YATES Simon Philip GBR MTS 13:56:00
71 61 10005501496 ZAKARIN Ilnur RUS CCC 14:25:00
82 161 10003253221 THOMAS Geraint GBR IGD 14:36:00
118 28 10009728070 VLASOV Aleksandr Y RUS AST 15:12:00
140 26 10009763436 LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel COL AST 15:34:00
151 124 10088502578 HAGEN Carl Fredrik NOR LTS 15:45:00
158 155 10002692540 POZZOVIVO Domenico ITA NTT 15:52:00
161 181 10006473015 KELDERMAN Wilco NED SUN 15:55:00
162 21 10003401246 FUGLSANG Jakob DEN AST 15:56:00
163 191 10002837838 NIBALI Vincenzo ITA TFS 15:57:00
169 171 10004443994 KRUIJSWIJK Steven NED TJV 16:03:00
176 57 10005380450 MAJKA Rafal POL BOH 16:10:00

TT guys:

1 115 10004881508 DOWSETT Alex GBR ISN 13:15:00
4 152 10008913371 CAMPENAERTS Victor BEL NTT 13:18:00
60 163 10005889193 DENNIS Rohan AUS IGD 14:14:00
82 161 10003253221 THOMAS Geraint GBR IGD 14:36:00
104 164 10009164056 GANNA Filippo Y ITA IGD 14:58:00
147 175 10002858652 MARTIN Tony GER TJV 15:41:00
174 132 10009501233 AFFINI Edoardo Y ITA MTS 16:08:00
 
Reactions: Martinstranger
Campenaerts said he expects the fastest TT average (Rik Verbrugghe, 59 km/h) may be broken here, because downhill for a while + tailwind. He says they may hit 100 km/h before the hairpin, and he's glad he has disc breaks... De Gendt thinks all the heavier guys will have the advantage.

So, this is Ganna's to lose.
 
Campenaerts said he expects the fastest TT average (Rik Verbrugghe, 59 km/h) may be broken here, because downhill for a while + tailwind. He says they may hit 100 km/h before the hairpin, and he's glad he has disc breaks... De Gendt thinks all the heavier guys will have the advantage.
Also an advantage for G over the other contenders, especially Yates.
 
looks more like a (gusty) sidewind for most of the day, at least on the downhill part.

I don't think it's a given that Ganna will win, by the way. Fore sure he looks like the strongest at the moment, but it's a very unusual course, teams may get the setups wrong or have worse options than others to begin with, changing wind directions, partly gusty... there are just too many unknown factors.

Ineos for example seems to be confidend that the conditions will be the best between 14:00 and 15:00, and have lined up all three big guns within ~40 minutes in that time frame. But that could also mean that they get in completely wrong.
 

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