2020 Milan-Sanremo - 305k - August 8th

[Jspear]

I was checking Kristoff's results in MSR and his consistency is almost Sagan-esque.
His results in the past 7 years: 8-1-2-6-4-4-14. He has won the sprint (either for the win or for best placement in the group) 4 out of 7 times.

Aye I was looking at that as well earlier today. Me was impressed.

 

[Sciatic]

Ewan did finish 2nd at MSR in 2018. I'd give him a much better shot at winning than Gilbert. These days, others are better at what Gilbert would need for a win

Aye, but Démare has won the race and also finished ahead of Ewan a few days ago. I don’t see why so many folks are putting Ewan in the top tier without at least having Démare in there too? (Obviously, people haves their favs, but still. . . )

 

[Bonimenier]

Aye, but Démare has won the race and also finished ahead of Ewan a few days ago. I don’t see why so many folks are putting Ewan in the top tier without at least having Démare in there too? (Obviously, people haves their favs, but still. . . )

The only reason Démare was able to sprint for victory that year was because he hang onto the car. Ewan has more chance to survive the Cipressa and the Poggio in a legit way than him.

 

[Sciatic]

The only reason Démare was able to sprint for victory that year was because he hang onto the car. Ewan has more chance to survive the Cipressa and the Poggio in a legit way than him.

I’m just glad we don’t have to wait very long to find out!

 

[Leinster]

Ewan did finish 2nd at MSR in 2018. I'd give him a much better shot at winning than Gilbert. These days, others are better at what Gilbert would need for a win

Ewan won the bunch sprint for 2nd but he could never follow Nibali's move on the Poggio. Or the moves that won the race the year before and after.

I just think the new course, coupled with smaller teams, will make it even harder again than the last 3 years to deliver a (relatively) fresh Ewan (or Gaviria, Demare, Bennett etc) to the Via Roma for a gallop. I think this year will be decided by a small (<15 riders) group, and an experienced classics rider with strong elbows and a nose for the right moves in the final 20km (like Gilbert) will be more likely to be in the front selection at the finish.

 

[Leinster]

The only reason Démare was able to sprint for victory that year was because he hang onto the car. Ewan has more chance to survive the Cipressa and the Poggio in a legit way than him.

Wasn't he only "hanging onto the car" after a crash or mechanical around the Cipressa? He wasn't actually dropped, and I think given Demarre's palmares he has a stronger case for being the guy who can survive under pressure on late climbs than Ewan has.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm not even sure Gilbert has enough climbing legs for the Poggio anymore

 

[jaylew]

Ewan won the bunch sprint for 2nd but he could never follow Nibali's move on the Poggio. Or the moves that won the race the year before and after.

I just think the new course, coupled with smaller teams, will make it even harder again than the last 3 years to deliver a (relatively) fresh Ewan (or Gaviria, Demare, Bennett etc) to the Via Roma for a gallop. I think this year will be decided by a small (<15 riders) group, and an experienced classics rider with strong elbows and a nose for the right moves in the final 20km (like Gilbert) will be more likely to be in the front selection at the finish.

I tend to agree with you but I don't give 2020 Gilbert any chance of winning from a small group knowing who's likely to be there. If it does come down to a bunch sprint, Ewan has a really good shot. He's smaller than the other bunch sprinters and he'll likely be there if any of them are.

 

[Red Rick]

I tend to agree with you but I don't give 2020 Gilbert any chance of winning from a small group knowing who's likely to be there. If it does come down to a bunch sprint, Ewan has a really good shot. He's smaller than the other bunch sprinters and he'll likely be there if any of them are.

That doesn't really make him a better climber. He didn't finish a GT until last year.

The big problem for Ewan is the current hybrid of sprinter/puncheur/classics riders who will likely form a group over the Poggio.

 

[Leinster]

I'm not even sure Gilbert has enough climbing legs for the Poggio anymore

He won a hilly stage and a long fast stage in the Vuelta last year, and we haven't seen much of him this year.

I think he's very much an outsider for the win, but if the race starts to break up on the Cipressa, or even before on the descent of the Nava, which will be long and fast, I think Gilbert has a better chance of staying with the front of the race than Ewan.

Unless, of course, Ewan just bolts himself to Gilbert's wheel for the whole final 50km, which would be another perfectly valid tactic.

 

[jaylew]

That doesn't really make him a better climber. He didn't finish a GT until last year.

The big problem for Ewan is the current hybrid of sprinter/puncheur/classics riders who will likely form a group over the Poggio.

No, but he's proven can do a short, sharp climb quite well. He won't be there if it's a small group but if any of the real sprinters are there (barring Sagan) he'll likely be there as well.

 

[memyselfandI]

That was a 4-hour stage. MSR will be closer to 7, if not more. I think Gilbert is Lotto's best chance of a win.

You really think 15 stage racing days before that is a peace of cake for a sprinter? At the GT?

 

[Leinster]

You really think 15 stage racing days before that is a peace of cake for a sprinter? At the GT?

Not at all, but 3 weeks of racing and 7 hours of racing are 2 very different types of endurance.

 

[Rollthedice]

Final route for tomorrow, 305 km.

 

[Leinster]

I see it's a late evening finish for this one as well. Will this be another part of the new normal for 2020? I realize they couldn't have a 6.30 pm finish in March. Presumably as this gets later in the season and the evenings get shorter, they'll revert to more traditional finish times?

 

[jaylew]

Final route for tomorrow, 305 km.

Thanks, updated.

 

[Orbit501]

...
Still I think normally one of the most important factors is simply the wind on the Poggio

Any ideas on forecast in that regard for tomorrow?

As you say, this is a very important factor.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Van Aert has been KOM'ing some descents the past few months. I'm not saying anything.
He also seems in better shape than Alaphilippe, van der Poel and other favorites.

 

[Red Rick]

Any ideas on forecast in that regard for tomorrow?

As you say, this is a very important factor.

This gives a headwind for the Poggio tomorrow but it's a Dutch site they could well be trash

 

[spalco]

What time does tv coverage start, 15:30 or earlier?

Could be an 8 hour race possibly.

 

[Thomson]

As much as I would love Sagan to finally win a Milan san remo. I just don’t think it will happen. I think if he won 2013 then he would off added another win here but he always seems to have 2013 in his mind. 2016 could have good if he wasn’t tangled in a crash. Maybe he needs some luck tomorrow...

The easiest race to ride maybe the hardest to win....

It’s also the only monument nobody has won three years in a row...

 

[Rollthedice]

What time does tv coverage start, 15:30 or earlier?

Could be an 8 hour race possibly.

TV starting 15:50 CET, finish at around 18:50. Race start at 11:10.

 

[DNP-Old]

This gives a headwind for the Poggio tomorrow but it's a Dutch site they could well be trash

Ammatiporaly (spelling) said the same. That said, doubt it has any influence on the outcome. I can't see the sprinter teams being able to control the madness given there's only 6 riders per team.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I wonder if Gilbert has been hiding himself. The weeks before he won Roubaix last year he was absolutely nowhere.

 

[Orbit501]

This gives a headwind for the Poggio tomorrow but it's a Dutch site they could well be trash

Ok, thanks.

If true, brings things a little bit back into balance for the sprinters again. If a tail, what with the 6 man teams too, you'd have to seriously favour the attackers over the sprinters.