2020 Milan-Sanremo - 305k - August 8th

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Who will be the winner of Milano Sanremo 2020?


  • Total voters
    106
Sagan needs to ride this like Bergen's Worlds if he wants to win. I think the peloton will split into pieces on Poggio with all this aggressive youngsters (Van Aert, Van Der Poel, Bettiol, etc.). Small group will emerge, I'm pretty sure. He just needs to follow moves, not wasting strength, and wait for the sprint. If he times that sprint like he can and should, no Van Aert or Alaphilippe of this World can beat him. Simple as that.
 
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Break:
Alessandro Tonelli (Bardiani CSF Faizane)
Fabio Mazzucco (Bardiani CSF Faizane)
Manuele Boaro (Astana)
Héctor Carretero (Movistar)
Mattia Bais (Androni Giocattoli-Sidermec)
Damiano Cima (Gazprom-Rusvelo)
Marco Frapporti (Vini Zabu-KTM)
 
Surprised by how few people are backing Bennett, the guy has shown he's willing to leave the peloton instead of just waiting in the wheels and if you can't shake him off on the poggio, he's a sure bet to win the sprint from a small bunch
Have you seen him sprint this year? I've been pretty underwhelmed by him so far. His win last week was nice, but it wasn't a sprint.
If this small bunch features Ewan, Demare, Sagan, or even van Aert & van der Poel, which it very wel could, he's anything but a sure bet.

Sagan needs to ride this like Bergen's Worlds if he wants to win. I think the peloton will split into pieces on Poggio with all this aggressive youngsters (Van Aert, Van Der Poel, Bettiol, etc.). Small group will emerge, I'm pretty sure. He just needs to follow moves, not wasting strength, and wait for the sprint. If he times that sprint like he can and should, no Van Aert or Alaphilippe of this World can beat him. Simple as that.
It seems if everybody will ride the best they have ever been able to ride, that everybody will win. We all know Sagan has the potential and the talent, but he hasn't looked "alive" to me for some time. I also don't know how he's managing his form this season, with both the TDF and the Giro coming up. His last win was 13 months ago.
 
Sorry wasn't updated on M-SR at all for several months, so very glad to hear that the Poggio is raced this year anyhow, despite rumours in late winter that Poggio would be skipped due to to undermined road b/c of long term heavy rain fall. But road up to Poggio has all been repaired and in good shape now?
 
Here you you can find live data for many of the riders:
Don't know how accurate the power meter readings are but this would suggest that Van Aert is wasting quite a bit of energy compared to Alaphilippe for example.
On what basis are you concluding this?
Alaphilippe is much lighter, so he would be doing less Watts. I see that Van Aert's average power matches that of Naesen (another 'heavy' rider) for instance, so I think he's not doing anything special.
 
On what basis are you concluding this?
Alaphilippe is much lighter, so he would be doing less Watts. I see that Van Aert's average power matches that of Naesen (another 'heavy' rider) for instance, so I think he's not doing anything special.
On the flat, weight isn't really a factor regarding power required. Only if Ala is significantly more aerodynamic you would see such a difference. I'm any case, it's unlikely that WvA has a 50 % higher FTP compared to Ala, isn't it?
 
Like you say, the aerodynamics would be different, and every accelaration out of a corner would also require more power if you're heavier. If you look at the data, there's a quite consistent difference between the lighter and the heavier riders. The 'redzone' metric gives 0% for both Van Aert and Alaphilippe, and significantly more for some helpers and riders in the lead group. I guess that's more meaningful.
 
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On the flat, weight isn't really a factor regarding power required. Only if Ala is significantly more aerodynamic you would see such a difference. I'm any case, it's unlikely that WvA has a 50 % higher FTP compared to Ala, isn't it?
Alaphilippe is significantly more aero due to being smaller, and in a peloton where you might catch more wind with your head/torso this might well scale alinearly. In fact I really wonder what power output Evepoel has if he's just sitting in the peloton and I reckon this is extremely low

This will not translate to WvA needing a 50% higher FTP. That doesn't scale like that at all. Both are doing less than 50% of FTP anyway, so all that matter is how that affects their ~6 minute Poggio effort.
 
Alaphilippe is significantly more aero due to being smaller, and in a peloton where you might catch more wind with your head/torso this might well scale alinearly. In fact I really wonder what power output Evepoel has if he's just sitting in the peloton and I reckon this is extremely low

This will not translate to WvA needing a 50% higher FTP. That doesn't scale like that at all. Both are doing less than 50% of FTP anyway, so all that matter is how that affects their ~6 minute Poggio effort.
I'd go out on a limb and say that an aerodynamic disadvantage due to height difference is much smaller when drafting in a peloton du to sort of a bubble effect around the field. Also, weight and frontal area don't scale linearly, position on the bike should be much more important.
Also doesn't really look like there are a lot of corners where being heavier would be a disadvantage in terms of power required.
 
I'd go out on a limb and say that an aerodynamic disadvantage due to height difference is much smaller when drafting in a peloton du to sort of a bubble effect around the field. Also, weight and frontal area don't scale linearly, position on the bike should be much more important.
Also doesn't really look like there are a lot of corners where being heavier would be a disadvantage in terms of power required.
I actually assume that being taller than the majority of riders would mess with that bubble effect.
 
Would not read too much into those figures. Assuming neither has had to make a large effort that would account for the difference, those avg output levels in any case put both into their recovery zone. And neither one is wasting glycogen substantially more than the other, as they are essentially just burning fat. Ingesting carbs at a normal race nutrition rate will replenish what little they consumed no prob.
 

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