2020 Milan-Sanremo - 305k - August 8th

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Who will be the winner of Milano Sanremo 2020?

  • Total voters
    106
Blanco

Blanco

Jun 6, 2017
6,170
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Sagan needs to ride this like Bergen's Worlds if he wants to win. I think the peloton will split into pieces on Poggio with all this aggressive youngsters (Van Aert, Van Der Poel, Bettiol, etc.). Small group will emerge, I'm pretty sure. He just needs to follow moves, not wasting strength, and wait for the sprint. If he times that sprint like he can and should, no Van Aert or Alaphilippe of this World can beat him. Simple as that.
 
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Laplaz

Laplaz

Apr 6, 2016
3,635
410
14,580
Break:
Alessandro Tonelli (Bardiani CSF Faizane)
Fabio Mazzucco (Bardiani CSF Faizane)
Manuele Boaro (Astana)
Héctor Carretero (Movistar)
Mattia Bais (Androni Giocattoli-Sidermec)
Damiano Cima (Gazprom-Rusvelo)
Marco Frapporti (Vini Zabu-KTM)
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
20,975
20,308
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PremierAndrew said:
Surprised by how few people are backing Bennett, the guy has shown he's willing to leave the peloton instead of just waiting in the wheels and if you can't shake him off on the poggio, he's a sure bet to win the sprint from a small bunch
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Have you seen him sprint this year? I've been pretty underwhelmed by him so far. His win last week was nice, but it wasn't a sprint.
If this small bunch features Ewan, Demare, Sagan, or even van Aert & van der Poel, which it very wel could, he's anything but a sure bet.

Blanco said:
Sagan needs to ride this like Bergen's Worlds if he wants to win. I think the peloton will split into pieces on Poggio with all this aggressive youngsters (Van Aert, Van Der Poel, Bettiol, etc.). Small group will emerge, I'm pretty sure. He just needs to follow moves, not wasting strength, and wait for the sprint. If he times that sprint like he can and should, no Van Aert or Alaphilippe of this World can beat him. Simple as that.
Click to expand...

It seems if everybody will ride the best they have ever been able to ride, that everybody will win. We all know Sagan has the potential and the talent, but he hasn't looked "alive" to me for some time. I also don't know how he's managing his form this season, with both the TDF and the Giro coming up. His last win was 13 months ago.
 
Zoetemelk-fan

Zoetemelk-fan

Oct 5, 2009
1,763
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Sorry wasn't updated on M-SR at all for several months, so very glad to hear that the Poggio is raced this year anyhow, despite rumours in late winter that Poggio would be skipped due to to undermined road b/c of long term heavy rain fall. But road up to Poggio has all been repaired and in good shape now?
 
Jagartrott

Jagartrott

Apr 15, 2014
4,254
2,341
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Sestriere said:
Here you you can find live data for many of the riders:

Velon 2020

racecentre.velon.cc racecentre.velon.cc
Don't know how accurate the power meter readings are but this would suggest that Van Aert is wasting quite a bit of energy compared to Alaphilippe for example.
Click to expand...
On what basis are you concluding this?
Alaphilippe is much lighter, so he would be doing less Watts. I see that Van Aert's average power matches that of Naesen (another 'heavy' rider) for instance, so I think he's not doing anything special.
 
S

Sestriere

Jun 24, 2017
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Jagartrott said:
On what basis are you concluding this?
Alaphilippe is much lighter, so he would be doing less Watts. I see that Van Aert's average power matches that of Naesen (another 'heavy' rider) for instance, so I think he's not doing anything special.
Click to expand...
On the flat, weight isn't really a factor regarding power required. Only if Ala is significantly more aerodynamic you would see such a difference. I'm any case, it's unlikely that WvA has a 50 % higher FTP compared to Ala, isn't it?
 
Jagartrott

Jagartrott

Apr 15, 2014
4,254
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Like you say, the aerodynamics would be different, and every accelaration out of a corner would also require more power if you're heavier. If you look at the data, there's a quite consistent difference between the lighter and the heavier riders. The 'redzone' metric gives 0% for both Van Aert and Alaphilippe, and significantly more for some helpers and riders in the lead group. I guess that's more meaningful.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
53,880
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Sestriere said:
On the flat, weight isn't really a factor regarding power required. Only if Ala is significantly more aerodynamic you would see such a difference. I'm any case, it's unlikely that WvA has a 50 % higher FTP compared to Ala, isn't it?
Click to expand...
Alaphilippe is significantly more aero due to being smaller, and in a peloton where you might catch more wind with your head/torso this might well scale alinearly. In fact I really wonder what power output Evepoel has if he's just sitting in the peloton and I reckon this is extremely low

This will not translate to WvA needing a 50% higher FTP. That doesn't scale like that at all. Both are doing less than 50% of FTP anyway, so all that matter is how that affects their ~6 minute Poggio effort.
 
S

Sestriere

Jun 24, 2017
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Red Rick said:
Alaphilippe is significantly more aero due to being smaller, and in a peloton where you might catch more wind with your head/torso this might well scale alinearly. In fact I really wonder what power output Evepoel has if he's just sitting in the peloton and I reckon this is extremely low

This will not translate to WvA needing a 50% higher FTP. That doesn't scale like that at all. Both are doing less than 50% of FTP anyway, so all that matter is how that affects their ~6 minute Poggio effort.
Click to expand...
I'd go out on a limb and say that an aerodynamic disadvantage due to height difference is much smaller when drafting in a peloton du to sort of a bubble effect around the field. Also, weight and frontal area don't scale linearly, position on the bike should be much more important.
Also doesn't really look like there are a lot of corners where being heavier would be a disadvantage in terms of power required.
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
53,880
44,262
28,180
Sestriere said:
I'd go out on a limb and say that an aerodynamic disadvantage due to height difference is much smaller when drafting in a peloton du to sort of a bubble effect around the field. Also, weight and frontal area don't scale linearly, position on the bike should be much more important.
Also doesn't really look like there are a lot of corners where being heavier would be a disadvantage in terms of power required.
Click to expand...
I actually assume that being taller than the majority of riders would mess with that bubble effect.
 
meat puppet

meat puppet

May 29, 2011
3,549
1,651
16,680
Would not read too much into those figures. Assuming neither has had to make a large effort that would account for the difference, those avg output levels in any case put both into their recovery zone. And neither one is wasting glycogen substantially more than the other, as they are essentially just burning fat. Ingesting carbs at a normal race nutrition rate will replenish what little they consumed no prob.
 
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TourOfSardinia

TourOfSardinia

Feb 16, 2010
15,331
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Live now on Rai2 - break of 7
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