Sagan needs to ride this like Bergen's Worlds if he wants to win. I think the peloton will split into pieces on Poggio with all this aggressive youngsters (Van Aert, Van Der Poel, Bettiol, etc.). Small group will emerge, I'm pretty sure. He just needs to follow moves, not wasting strength, and wait for the sprint. If he times that sprint like he can and should, no Van Aert or Alaphilippe of this World can beat him. Simple as that.