I think it's such lottery this time because lack of racing and extra k's. Maybe it's WvA, he is good but this is not Strade, that from his racing history is his playground. And I see MVdP clearly more explosive racer, he is at least young Sagan level.
Peto..was he hiding at Strade, just testing waters? Evan could be black horse, he's got stamina already and nice uphill kick but if small group goes with wide gaps then maybe it's too much for him.
Best would be Peto-MVdP and Kwiato stealing it under Mathieus armpit..
At Strade, Sagan missed the split that Schachmann made (how that happened we'll never know, thanks tv coverage) so we can't really know if it was a case of him not having the strength to make it, or if he and Oss (when the tv cameras picked them out they were together, with 2 riders from other teams represented in the break) just had their hands tied by their team duties.
Personally, I don't think we're seeing the same Sagan we used to. He doesn't seem as strong over hills any more as the 2015/16 version. Also, his main weakness before, that Bora weren't strong enough to give him support, is turning 360 on him; now that Bora are a stronger team, they have other options to win, so he still doesn't have support.
I don't see him as a favourite for tomorrow. You can never write him off, but I don't think he's strong enough any more to drop all the sprinters on the Poggio.
That said, with the 6 man teams, longer race, and the heat, I can't see pure sprinters like Ewan (or Viviani, Demare, Gaviria, Bouhanni) being there at the pointy end. These guys are all used to having a leadout man drop them off, and I can't see that being an option this ime around. It'll be down to the guys who are used to freelancing it in the finale, the classics experts like Alaf, Kwiat, WvA, vdP, maybe even Kristoff.