2020 Milan-Sanremo - 305k - August 8th

[senna6541]

Important point here.
Kinda reminds me on how many people here favor Bernal over Sagan for the tour although in last years edition their head to head was a close 10-10. But unfortunately the CN forum experts are again gonna ignore the FACTS!!!

Ah yes. My fault here CN fantasy cyclists/pro cycling experts. Total is actually MVDP 98-41 vs. WVA head to head in bike races. As for MSR, the odds do in fact put C. Ewan (pure sprinters make it over) as the slight fav with MVDP next and WVA and Sagan right there. Given I chose to ride the MTB this morning (vs. the road or cross/gravel), I will stay with MVDP as my pick.

 

[senna6541]

I see a visit from Logic in your future.

Anyway, your dig at CN forum "experts" is a little harsh. Very few have voted and MSR is a bit of a crapshoot with a ton of potential winners anyway. It's the whole reason I didn't include a poll in the first place.

You can be sure that many of us have seen virtually every WVA-VDP cross battle as well as their road matchups so we're aware that Mathieu has a big edge overall and we're also aware of how he comes back from those rare off days. Still, an hour of cross is different from a 300k monument and Wout was super impressive at Strade Bianche so him getting the most votes along with Sagan is no real surprise, especially after showing a good turn of speed today.

Honestly, chances are that neither of them wins.

Jaylew: Very fair and accurate response. I'm usually a couple of IPA's deep when reading/commenting here, so take everything with a grain of salt. Wout is a monster and I have huge respect for his talent and how he's come back from the TDF injury. Seems like a really solid person to.

 

[Pantani_lives]

****Van Aert, Démare, Sagan
***Van der Poel, Gilbert, Ewan, Nibali
**Gaviria, Bennett, Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski
*Kristoff, Matthews, Van Avermaet, Naesen, Colbrelli

 

[yaco]

Mitchelton obviously have other priorities as they've entered the weakest ever team in their history of participating in this great race.

 

[RedheadDane]

I think CN might have made a slight mistake...

https://www.cyclingnews.com/milan-san-remo/start-list/

• 101 Attilio Viviani
• 102 Simone Consonni
• 103 Christophe Laporte
• 104 Cyril Lemoine
• 105 Fabio Sabatini
• 106 Kenneth Van Bilsen

 

[SafeBet]

I was checking Kristoff's results in MSR and his consistency is almost Sagan-esque.
His results in the past 7 years: 8-1-2-6-4-4-14. He has won the sprint (either for the win or for best placement in the group) 4 out of 7 times.

 

[Alexandre B.]

I was checking Kristoff's results in MSR and his consistency is almost Sagan-esque.
His results in the past 7 years: 8-1-2-6-4-4-14. He has won the sprint (either for the win or for best placement in the group) 4 out of 7 times.

His consistency in the Ronde is even more legendary, considering the nature of the race.
15-4-5-1-4-5-16-3

 

[42x16ss]

Mitchelton obviously have other priorities as they've entered the weakest ever team in their history of participating in this great race.

Ouch, when your most likely chances are an over the hill Albasini, Dion Smith and Alex Edmondson you're in trouble.

Now I've said that one of them will probably get on the podium...

 

[RedheadDane]

Ouch, when your most likely chances are an over the hill Albasini,

So much over the hill, in fact, that if his original plan had worked out, he'd be retired already.

 

[Red Rick]

Tbh you need to get over the hills to make it to Sanremo

 

[spalco]

According to oddschecker, betting favourites are Caleb Ewan, Van Der Poel, Sagan and amusingly Remco, who's not even racing.

I have no clue who's winning this race, but I'm going with Sagan just because.

 

[Rollthedice]

I think six riders teams will make all the difference. Milan Saganremo

According to oddschecker, betting favourites are Caleb Ewan, Van Der Poel, Sagan and amusingly Remco, who's not even racing.

I have no clue who's winning this race, but I'm going with Sagan just because.

Milan Saganremo, except a new Ciolek might be on hand for the finish sprint. That said, I don't think it will be won solo but from a very reduced group. Six men teams will have a big impact to the race and I don't think those 15 odd km more plus the heat will not be felt even by some of the favorites listed here.

 

[Jagartrott]

I don't know about the heat. There aren't really big efforts to make before the final 20 kms, but it is a constant heat, hot asphalt, many hours on the bike - it will wear out several people I think. Also because you have to be able to keep drinking and eating, and not everyone has the stomach for that (literally in this case). Naesen said the heat completely destroyed him at Strade Bianche, for instance (so I wouldn't bet on him).

This really is a first, also of course with the reduction in team size. I'm curious if anything will be different compared to the usual MSR routine.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Have a feeling this is gonna be the year where someone does a Ciolek

 

[spalco]

It will apparently the longest Milan-San Remo ever. Unless wikipedia is wrong or I missed something the race has never been over 300km before.

Do the extra 10km make a difference? I think they might, It's an extra 15-20 minutes of racing, that's not totally insignificant imo, might be enough to break some riders who would've still been relatively fresh at the finish otherwise.

 

[Red Rick]

It will apparently the longest Milan-San Remo ever. Unless wikipedia is wrong or I missed something the race has never been over 300km before.

Do the extra 10km make a difference? I think they might, It's an extra 15-20 minutes of racing, that's not totally insignificant imo, might be enough to break some riders who would've still been relatively fresh at the finish otherwise.

I think it does make a little difference. If the extra 50km MSR has over other classics differentiates to some extent, then I'd assume another 10km does matter. But I don't think it matters as much as the 6 man teams, the extra climbing, and the weather.

Still I think normally one of the most important factors is simply the wind on the Poggio

 

[cobblesandstones]

Gaviria will win this

 

[Rollthedice]

I think it does make a little difference. If the extra 50km MSR has over other classics differentiates to some extent, then I'd assume another 10km does matter. But I don't think it matters as much as the 6 man teams, the extra climbing, and the weather.

Still I think normally one of the most important factors is simply the wind on the Poggio

It's 15 km, 305 in all, no spectators Covid edition with Moscon.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Bring back Bordeaux-Paris with its 620 km!

 

[memyselfandI]

I think it's such lottery this time because lack of racing and extra k's. Maybe it's WvA, he is good but this is not Strade, that from his racing history is his playground. And I see MVdP clearly more explosive racer, he is at least young Sagan level.

Peto..was he hiding at Strade, just testing waters? Evan could be black horse, he's got stamina already and nice uphill kick but if small group goes with wide gaps then maybe it's too much for him.

Best would be Peto-MVdP and Kwiato stealing it under Mathieus armpit..

 

[Leinster]

Bring back Bordeaux-Paris with its 620 km!

Racing behind Dernies from Milan to the coast?

 

[Leinster]

I think it's such lottery this time because lack of racing and extra k's. Maybe it's WvA, he is good but this is not Strade, that from his racing history is his playground. And I see MVdP clearly more explosive racer, he is at least young Sagan level.

Peto..was he hiding at Strade, just testing waters? Evan could be black horse, he's got stamina already and nice uphill kick but if small group goes with wide gaps then maybe it's too much for him.

Best would be Peto-MVdP and Kwiato stealing it under Mathieus armpit..

At Strade, Sagan missed the split that Schachmann made (how that happened we'll never know, thanks tv coverage) so we can't really know if it was a case of him not having the strength to make it, or if he and Oss (when the tv cameras picked them out they were together, with 2 riders from other teams represented in the break) just had their hands tied by their team duties.

Personally, I don't think we're seeing the same Sagan we used to. He doesn't seem as strong over hills any more as the 2015/16 version. Also, his main weakness before, that Bora weren't strong enough to give him support, is turning 360 on him; now that Bora are a stronger team, they have other options to win, so he still doesn't have support.

I don't see him as a favourite for tomorrow. You can never write him off, but I don't think he's strong enough any more to drop all the sprinters on the Poggio.

That said, with the 6 man teams, longer race, and the heat, I can't see pure sprinters like Ewan (or Viviani, Demare, Gaviria, Bouhanni) being there at the pointy end. These guys are all used to having a leadout man drop them off, and I can't see that being an option this ime around. It'll be down to the guys who are used to freelancing it in the finale, the classics experts like Alaf, Kwiat, WvA, vdP, maybe even Kristoff.

 

[memyselfandI]

That said, with the 6 man teams, longer race, and the heat, I can't see pure sprinters like Ewan (or Viviani, Demare, Gaviria, Bouhanni) being there at the pointy end. These guys are all used to having a leadout

Fair, I didn't saw Strade and Sagan there, just read about it.

I keep Ewan just in case, thinking last TdF stage 16 for example, he's got stamina.

 

[Leinster]

Fair, I didn't saw Strade and Sagan there, just read about it.

I keep Ewan just in case, thinking last TdF stage 16 for example, he's got stamina.

That was a 4-hour stage. MSR will be closer to 7, if not more. I think Gilbert is Lotto's best chance of a win.

 

[jaylew]

That was a 4-hour stage. MSR will be closer to 7, if not more. I think Gilbert is Lotto's best chance of a win.

Ewan did finish 2nd at MSR in 2018. I'd give him a much better shot at winning than Gilbert. These days, others are better at what Gilbert would need for a win