2020 Vuelta rumors

[RedheadDane]

Regeneration from what?

I wasn't aware Buchmann was a Time Lord either.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I wasn't aware Buchmann was a Time Lord either.

According to his German Wiki page he was actually born on Gallifrey

 

[Rackham]

I agree with this. Roglic was the "guaranteed" winner for 3 GTs and only won one. Dumoulin is always overrated here. I also expect Carapaz to be good.
Movistar can also win this race. I expect both Mas and Valverde to place high in GC, maybe Soler, too.
The GC field is weak and the GC top 10 has to be filled out somehow so there will some one-off random riders in there.

Roglic was diminished before the Tour this year after his crash in the Dauphiné (which he described as the worst of his career). After seeing his performance in the world championships & then Liége a couple of weeks ago, I'm pretty confident you'll see peak Roglic in week one (which is where all the difficulties are condensed).

It's a good thing actually, i.e. the route should clear up all doubts & answer questions regarding "who" is the team leader in their respective team (for example Froome should be quickly dismissed as a potential winner unless some crazy voodoo stuff has gone down in the past couple of weeks).

 

[Eclipse]

You'll rarely catch me saying this, but I honestly think Pinot should actually be one of the favourites to win this. Gone a lot less deep than most other GC riders on the startlist this year (and frankly carapaz probably burnt as many matches by the end of the tour with his final week heroics). There's also reliable help around him and no pressure on his shoulders

I'll go outside contender on Poels who was undercooked at the tour. It's rare that he doesn't show up to at least one race with some form.

 

[BlueRoads]

I hope it goes through. I have no idea what to expect. Ineos looks very, very good, Carapaz could win this... But then there are many riders who might have recovered well or not. I would like to see Chaves in better form than in the Tour - in case they are coming.

 

[Koronin]

Movistar's Vuelta line-up:

Mas
Valverde
Soler
Verona
Olivera
Rojas
Erviti
Arcas

The big question is who knows what any of their form is going to be like.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Me thinks the weather will play a big part, northern Spain at this time of the year has typical Pais Vasco weather, it's gonna be really different from a normal Vuelta, that could be bad for Valverde, who like the heat and dislikes cold, rainy weather.

 

[Red Rick]

Me thinks the weather will play a big part, northern Spain at this time of the year has typical Pais Vasco weather, it's gonna be really different from a normal Vuelta, that could be bad for Valverde, who like the heat and dislikes cold, rainy weather.

Apart from Tourmalet it's still south/low enough there shouldn't be many snow concerns despite the late dates?

 

[Mayomaniac]

Apart from Tourmalet it's still south/low enough there shouldn't be many snow concerns despite the late dates?

Yes, I was mainly just thinking about cold, rainy weather.

 

[Koronin]

Me thinks the weather will play a big part, northern Spain at this time of the year has typical Pais Vasco weather, it's gonna be really different from a normal Vuelta, that could be bad for Valverde, who like the heat and dislikes cold, rainy weather.

It's not the typical ideal weather for him.

 

[Ktarie]

Regeneration from what?

For me there are two explanations that might complement each other:

1. Buchmann is generally a rather sensitive driver who may suffer physically (probably mentally as well) more than others if things don't go exactly according to plan. According to this, he could have fallen into a hole afterwards, despite a moderate and less stressful TdF than the year before.

2. It is a pretext for the public due to the Corona situation. Bora does not want to burn his potential captain for next year over a Vuelta, in which he also hardly would not have any team support in critical moments.

 

[Red Rick]

For me there are two explanations that might complement each other:

1. Buchmann is generally a rather sensitive driver who may suffer physically (probably mentally as well) more than others if things don't go exactly according to plan. According to this, he could have fallen into a hole afterwards, despite a moderate and less stressful TdF than the year before.

2. It is a pretext for the public due to the Corona situation. Bora does not want to burn his potential captain for next year over a Vuelta, in which he also hardly would not have any team support in critical moments.

Yeah probably just sounds like mental burnout, or he was never even ready for the Tour in the first place.

 

[Tonton]

You'll rarely catch me saying this, but I honestly think Pinot should actually be one of the favourites to win this. Gone a lot less deep than most other GC riders on the startlist this year (and frankly carapaz probably burnt as many matches by the end of the tour with his final week heroics). There's also reliable help around him and no pressure on his shoulders

I'll go outside contender on Poels who was undercooked at the tour. It's rare that he doesn't show up to at least one race with some form.

Well, we caught you, my friend !

Colder temperatures are good for Pinot and the absence of a Stage 19 won't hurt (no pun intended).

His team is not the best GFdJ line-up (missing Reichenbach and Molard - "replaced" by Le Gac and Seigle), but it includes Roux and Ladagnous, Ludvigsson (who was FdJ's Kung before Kung came to the team), and of course Gaudu. Hopefully TP and DG will have recovered from their TdF crash.

Team tactics? I'm no DS, but I would try to put Gaudu in a break, get some advantage over the GC favorites. He needs a huge buffer for GFdJ to play the Gaudu card, considering his modest ITT skills. We'll see.

In conclusion, that's a pretty strong team for the flat, but in the mountains, Thibaut and David will be on their own. Why not? Being the second or third-best team is useless, you might as well Carapaz or Pog your way to victory.

 

[tobydawq]

Easy Valverde win.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sunweb is throwing some kids into the deep-end. With 6 (!) GT debutants, the average age and by 4 years the youngest in the Vuelta: 22y + 205d

Oldest guy in their line-up is Power (1995). Youngest guy is Van Wilder (2000).
In between are Donovan (1999), Arensman (1999), Dainese (1998), Storer (1997), Salmon (1997), Kanter (1997).

Not sure if this is a recipe for disaster. I think these kids are going to learn a ton, but i feel like they would have benefited from one or two more experienced riders in the team.

 

[ice&fire]

The thing with Roglic is that he's never contested GC in two consecutive GTs, and not all top GC riders do well at that.

Yes, I was mainly just thinking about cold, rainy weather.

Correct. Northern Spain is exposed to anything coming from the Atlantic Ocean. Weather models currently predict up to three weather fronts sweeping the area in the first week of the race.

 

[tobydawq]

Well, well, well, Vlasov is selected for Astana.

 

[Eclipse]

Well, well, well, Vlasov is selected for Astana.

Angry Fuglsang intensifies

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Well, well, well, Vlasov is selected for Astana.

That's one unfaithful husband!

 

[Red Rick]

The thing with Roglic is that he's never contested GC in two consecutive GTs, and not all top GC riders do well at that.

Correct. Northern Spain is exposed to anything coming from the Atlantic Ocean. Weather models currently predict up to three weather fronts sweeping the area in the first week of the race.

The other thing with Roglic is that he has a very high base level and a tendency to be up there in any race he does. This isn't too dissimilar from Froome in 2016, winning Dauphine, Tour, riding Olympics, then getting 2nd in Vuelta. He also did 0 racing before the lockdown.

 

[HelloDolly]

Sunweb is throwing some kids into the deep-end. With 6 (!) GT debutants, the average age and by 4 years the youngest in the Vuelta: 22y + 205d

Oldest guy in their line-up is Power (1995). Youngest guy is Van Wilder (2000).
In between are Donovan (1999), Arensman (1999), Dainese (1998), Storer (1997), Salmon (1997), Kanter (1997).

Not sure if this is a recipe for disaster. I think these kids are going to learn a ton, but i feel like they would have benefited from one or two more experienced riders in the team.

They dont have more experienced riders available what with RVV and the Giro and they having such a young team. NIcolas Roche was due to ride the Vuelta but carrying an injury from the Tour that means he cant control his bike

If Sunweb put no pressure on the young guys and let them race stages as and when they can then it should be ok.Big chance the race wont finish and also a Sunweb rider or two surprise

THis is a problem if all the races occur at same time and riders injured

 

[Zoophonic]

I see Vlasov is named in the Astana squad. I was always under the apprehension that UCI forbid a rider who abandons one race from switching to another which overlaps. Maybe this year is a special Dispensation.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I see Vlasov is named in the Astana squad. I was always under the apprehension that UCI forbid a rider who abandons one race from switching to another which overlaps. Maybe this year is a special Dispensation.

You can always, if you get a special permit from the UCI. The rule is mainly in place so that people can't pull a Cipo durning the first week of a gt and win other races that take place durning the same time as that gt. Vlasov was actually sick, so I guess RCS won't have a problem with entering a race.

 

[Red Rick]

You can always, if you get a special permit from the UCI. The rule is mainly in place so that people can't pull a Cipo durning the first week of a gt and win other races that take place durning the same time as that gt. Vlasov was actually sick, so I guess RCS won't have a problem with entering a race.

The only one who has a problem is Big Bird

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sunweb is throwing some kids into the deep-end. With 6 (!) GT debutants, the average age and by 4 years the youngest in the Vuelta: 22y + 205d

Oldest guy in their line-up is Power (1995). Youngest guy is Van Wilder (2000).
In between are Donovan (1999), Arensman (1999), Dainese (1998), Storer (1997), Salmon (1997), Kanter (1997).

Not sure if this is a recipe for disaster. I think these kids are going to learn a ton, but i feel like they would have benefited from one or two more experienced riders in the team.

Appears Dainese has been replaced with Sütterlin.