Giro d'Italia 2021 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Pre-race poll.

Who will win the 2021 Giro d'Italia?


  • Total voters
    185
  • Poll closed .
Voted for Remco. Think Yates and Bernal are more likely and have proven themselves in the past but Bernal is still under an injury cloud as well and Yates has shown to be brittle or mistime his form peak previously.

Surprised Hindley is not further up the betting odds. I fancy Bardet to go well and be a decent each way bet for the podium finish.

Just cant shake the idea that DQS would just send him to Suisse or Dauphine to prepare for Olympics and Vuelta rather than allow him to start his racing in full glare at the Giro if they didn't think he was ready to confirm himself on the highest stage and do full justice to his generational talent.
 
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I voted for Landa because Landismo, but honestly it's really open. A healthy Bernal would be the favourite but we don't know about his back problems, Simon Yates could be flying too early once again, it's Remco's first race after his injury, Buchmann hasn't raced since Itzulia and so on.
From what I've seen in the Tour of the Alpes I'm not confident about Sivakov's descending skills, he got dropped everytime someone got serious on a descent. I wouldn't sleep on the DSM duo, they could end up on the podium.
 
Nov 2, 2020
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I suppose many consider him a one-hit-wonder. And in the end he didn't win even in a strange and depleted Giro, so why would his chances be better in a normal-ish Giro with a much stronger field?
Another problem with Hindley are his latest performances, because he goes to the Giro after two retirements in Catalunya and Tour of the Alps, and his season up until now has been disappointing
 
To me, Simon Yates has the highest peak level among all contenders not named Remco. He has already won a GT and has dominated another before hitting a wall. When in shape he's very likely a top3 climber in the world, he's explosive but can sustain his effort on longer climbs. He's not afraid to attack, which means he can profit if other riders play some tactical games. He's also a more than capable TTer. The real question mark is obviously the ability to hit top shape at the right time. He looked good (maybe too good?) in Trentino, can he keep that level for three weeks more?

Bernal is also a very complete rider. I believe he'll be among the best in the Montalcino stage, which could create bigger gaps than we think. He's obviously a gifted climber, probably better suited to long climbs at altitude (which are not featured in this Giro). His TTing has been hit or miss in the past few years, but I don't think TTs will make a difference in this race. His back issue is real though, and that's why I have him a step below Yates as a favorite.

Remco is the big unknown of this Giro, probably the most fascinating story in pro cycling of the last decade! I'm so pumped to have him at the Giro (being my home race) because he will attract so much interest. What we've seen from him earlier last year suggests he can be a dominant stage racer, of the kind you almost get bored after a couple of years. But he hasn't raced in more than 8 months. I guess logic (not Logic) tells me he can't win it, but if there's one rider who can do the unthinkable among the ones I've witnessed with my own eyes it's him. Ok, him and Pantani, but Pantani tried something like that in 2000 (without the monster injury) and it didn't end well. Nevertheless, I voted for Remco.

Vlasov is my dark horse for the Giro. He's been one of the most consistent stage racers of the past 2 years, has a solid team and a very high level uphill. I know his first attempts at GTs didn't go well, but he was very unlucky and he actually showed consistency in the second part of last year's Vuelta. His performance on Angliru suggests he's very good on steep gradients too. He's been improving ever since entering the WT and he's about to hit his prime. He's my first choice if the big3 all have some issues.

Carthy is another rider to watch closely. He struggled in GTs at the beginning of his career, when he was already a very good climber. Things changed in the Giro 2019 and even more in last year's Vuelta, where only two of the best GT riders around beat him. I'm not sure he can improve further and I'm kind of afraid he'll drop minutes with some stupid crash or in the strade bianche stage. He'll be really dangerous if he gets to third week without any major time loss.

I have Landa and Buchmann in the same tier, safe bets for a top10 and poossibly top5 but I'm not sure they have the level uphill to win the whole thing. I'd take both Vlasov and Carthy over them, but of course I could be wrong on this.

Sivakov and Almeida are trickier to evaluate. Both scored a top10 in the Giro at very young age, both look like diesel riders with great recovery, both start the Giro without a clear leadership. Almeida is the better TTer of the two, while Sivakov is likely the better climber. I believe we still have no clear idea on their ceiling as GT riders and it's a bit premature to just say: "Almeida can't handle long climbs..." or something along those lines. Almeida is 22, Sivakov is 23, they can still improve (a lot) and if they do we have a couple contenders for the Giro. At their current level, though, I can't see them winning.

I don't believe Nibali will ride for GC. I'd like to see him win on Zoncolan or the queen stage from a break and show signs of his old self before the Olympics.
I reckon if you want an oustider, Pello Bilbao, Fausto Masnada and Dani Martinez are better names.
 
Bernal, long time since he was Egan, unknown shape, back problems. Yates, nuclear form right now, we've seen it before, it all but disappears when it matters the most. Landa, eternal would be winner always finds a way to lose time when least expected. Remco, completely unknown shape. Bardet always there never wins anything. Can't see Vlasov going all the way and the same goes for all the others.

There is one rider in this Giro who has way more GT podiums than all the other contenders combined though it sounds impossible for him to win again. What if a miracle will happen? Vin(cenz)o option it is.

It is one hell of a hard Giro.
 
To me, Simon Yates has the highest peak level among all contenders not named Remco. He has already won a GT and has dominated another before hitting a wall. When in shape he's very likely a top3 climber in the world, he's explosive but can sustain his effort on longer climbs. He's not afraid to attack, which means he can profit if other riders play some tactical games. He's also a more than capable TTer. The real question mark is obviously the ability to hit top shape at the right time. He looked good (maybe too good?) in Trentino, can he keep that level for three weeks more?

Bernal is also a very complete rider. I believe he'll be among the best in the Montalcino stage, which could create bigger gaps than we think. He's obviously a gifted climber, probably better suited to long climbs at altitude (which are not featured in this Giro). His TTing has been hit or miss in the past few years, but I don't think TTs will make a difference in this race. His back issue is real though, and that's why I have him a step below Yates as a favorite.

Remco is the big unknown of this Giro, probably the most fascinating story in pro cycling of the last decade! I'm so pumped to have him at the Giro (being my home race) because he will attract so much interest. What we've seen from him earlier last year suggests he can be a dominant stage racer, of the kind you almost get bored after a couple of years. But he hasn't raced in more than 8 months. I guess logic (not Logic) tells me he can't win it, but if there's one rider who can do the unthinkable among the ones I've witnessed with my own eyes it's him. Ok, him and Pantani, but Pantani tried something like that in 2000 (without the monster injury) and it didn't end well. Nevertheless, I voted for Remco.

Vlasov is my dark horse for the Giro. He's been one of the most consistent stage racers of the past 2 years, has a solid team and a very high level uphill. I know his first attempts at GTs didn't go well, but he was very unlucky and he actually showed consistency in the second part of last year's Vuelta. His performance on Angliru suggests he's very good on steep gradients too. He's been improving ever since entering the WT and he's about to hit his prime. He's my first choice if the big3 all have some issues.

Carthy is another rider to watch closely. He struggled in GTs at the beginning of his career, when he was already a very good climber. Things changed in the Giro 2019 and even more in last year's Vuelta, where only two of the best GT riders around beat him. I'm not sure he can improve further and I'm kind of afraid he'll drop minutes with some stupid crash or in the strade bianche stage. He'll be really dangerous if he gets to third week without any major time loss.

I have Landa and Buchmann in the same tier, safe bets for a top10 and poossibly top5 but I'm not sure they have the level uphill to win the whole thing. I'd take both Vlasov and Carthy over them, but of course I could be wrong on this.

Sivakov and Almeida are trickier to evaluate. Both scored a top10 in the Giro at very young age, both look like diesel riders with great recovery, both start the Giro without a clear leadership. Almeida is the better TTer of the two, while Sivakov is likely the better climber. I believe we still have no clear idea on their ceiling as GT riders and it's a bit premature to just say: "Almeida can't handle long climbs..." or something along those lines. Almeida is 22, Sivakov is 23, they can still improve (a lot) and if they do we have a couple contenders for the Giro. At their current level, though, I can't see them winning.

I don't believe Nibali will ride for GC. I'd like to see him win on Zoncolan or the queen stage from a break and show signs of his old self before the Olympics.
I reckon if you want an oustider, Pello Bilbao, Fausto Masnada and Dani Martinez are better names.
Agreed on pretty much all of it, but I have Landa as fourth favourite. And I think he is more likely to end on the podium than outside the top-5.

While it's possible that Nibali will only go for stages if he thinks that he cannot contend for the overall, I wouldn't quite write him off yet.
 
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Landa potentially is the best of the rest if Bernal can't get rid of his back problems and Yates doesn't find stability over 3 weeks. He's got the shape, the team and a route to his taste.

Unless Almeida truly improves in the mountains. Or Hindley confirms his climbing ability against stronger opposition.

Bardet should've been better at the Tour of the Alps to consider him a hot favorite. But he wasn't superb at the 2017 Dauphine either, in contrast to 2016. So maybe he peaks a little later.

Vlasov won on Großglockner 2 years ago. Impressed towards the end of last year's Vuelta. But winning a grand tour now already?

Same goes for Hugh Cathy. Although his Tour of Switzerland stage win was pure masterclass in the high mountains.

We might seriously underestimate Landa, because we always used to overhype him back in the days. I don't see him winning either. Eventually he loses precious time in the gravel stages and it's over. If Bilbao navigates him through that though, Landa is the only certain given we have on paper.

Bernal, Yates & Hindley all have huge question marks behind their names!

It's gonna be interesting.
 
  1. Ruben Guerreiro
  2. Jan Hirt
  3. Nick Schultz
  4. Jai Hindley
  5. Matteo Fabbro
  6. Hugh Carthy
  7. Alexander Vlasov
  8. Valerio Conti
  9. Joao Almeida
  10. Jonathan Castroviejo
I didn't put Guerreiro first because of EF, it's what a random number generator has told me.
 
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Voted Emu because he is the one I want to win and should be one of the strongest climbers in the 3rd week. Maybe his usual consistency will help him at this Giro through ITTs, sterrato and tappones, none of which he is the absolute strongest on paper amongst the favourites. If he comes with his climbing legs from last years Dauphine before he crashed he'll be in the fight for the podium.
Also he is arriving without hype, not in the cycling bubble, but especially not in the german public. There is really nothing being reported so far about the Giro or his GC assault there. Night and day between Giro and the ususal Tour buzz. So the outside pressure is significantly lower than last years at the TdF.

Apart from him I'm going with Sivakov. He got 3 weeks in him and has, what you hear from inside Ineos, the climbing legs when in top shape, as well as a decent ITT. And with Ineos riders always performing at GTs without crashes or injuries I trust them to deliver him in peak shape to contest the Maglia Rosa. Especially if Bernal gets back trouble again.
 

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