Giro d'Italia 2021 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Pre-race poll.

[Big Doopie]

Logic says Yates or Bernal.
Heart says Remco.
Remco it is, I guess.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Landa potentially is the best of the rest if Bernal can't get rid of his back problems and Yates doesn't find stability over 3 weeks. He's got the shape, the team and a route to his taste.

Unless Almeida truly improves in the mountains. Or Hindley confirms his climbing ability against stronger opposition.

Bardet should've been better at the Tour of the Alps to consider him a hot favorite. But he wasn't superb at the 2017 Dauphine either, in contrast to 2016. So maybe he peaks a little later.

Vlasov won on Großglockner 2 years ago. Impressed towards the end of last year's Vuelta. But winning a grand tour now already?

Same goes for Hugh Cathy. Although his Tour of Switzerland stage win was pure masterclass in the high mountains.

We might seriously underestimate Landa, because we always used to overhype him back in the days. I don't see him winning either. Eventually he loses precious time in the gravel stages and it's over. If Bilbao navigates him through that though, Landa is the only certain given we have on paper.

Bernal, Yates & Hindley all have huge question marks behind their names!

It's gonna be interesting.

No, Vlasov won on the Kitzbüheler Horn 2 days later and was actually rather bad on the Glockner (9th, 1:25 behind Ben Hermans), that's why I'm not fully conviced that climbs at altitude suit him.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

According to bookies, these are the 10 biggest favorites to win, so let's use this as a start to predict the top 10:

1. Bernal
2. Yates
3. Evenepoel
4. Buchmann
5. Carthy
6. Landa
7. Vlasov
8. Sivakov
9. Almeida
10. Hindley

However, at least 2 riders will crash out for sure. Random.org says number 2 and 7, so bye bye Yates and Vlasov.

Now we have:

1. Bernal
2. Evenepoel
3. Buchmann
4. Carthy
5. Landa
6. Sivakov
7. Almeida
8. Hindley
9. Martinez
10. Bilbao

It's quite likely that at least 2 riders will be completely off form as well. Random.org predicts number 3 and 6, so Buchmann and Sivakov.

Here's our new top 10:

1. Bernal
2. Evenepoel
3. Carthy
4. Landa
5. Almeida
6. Hindley
7. Martinez
8. Bilbao
9. Soler
10. Bardet

Probably at least one team will have to go home due to positive covid tests. That's number 1, Bernal's team (and Martinez in 7th place as well). Unfortunately, that puts Landa into 3rd place, which we all know isn't gonna happen, so we'll have to swap him for someone else in the top 10. Random.org says that's number 6, Hindley.

Our final top 10 then is:

1. Evenepoel
2. Carthy
3. Hindley
4. Almeida
5. Landa
6. Bilbao
7. Soler
8. Bardet
9. Bennett
10. Nibali

You can go ahead and book it.

 

[topcat]

I voted Vin(cenz)o because I can.
Yates, Bernal, Remco and Nibali all have question marks over them. I don't think anyone else is good enough to win.
So I predict nobody will win.

 

[SafeBet]

According to bookies, these are the 10 biggest favorites to win, so let's use this as a start to predict the top 10:

1. Bernal
2. Yates
3. Evenepoel
4. Buchmann
5. Carthy
6. Landa
7. Vlasov
8. Sivakov
9. Almeida
10. Hindley

However, at least 2 riders will crash out for sure. Random.org says number 2 and 7, so bye bye Yates and Vlasov.

Now we have:

1. Bernal
2. Evenepoel
3. Buchmann
4. Carthy
5. Landa
6. Sivakov
7. Almeida
8. Hindley
9. Martinez
10. Bilbao

It's quite likely that at least 2 riders will be completely off form as well. Random.org predicts number 3 and 6, so Buchmann and Sivakov.

Here's our new top 10:

1. Bernal
2. Evenepoel
3. Carthy
4. Landa
5. Almeida
6. Hindley
7. Martinez
8. Bilbao
9. Soler
10. Bardet

Probably at least one team will have to go home due to positive covid tests. That's number 1, Bernal's team (and Martinez in 7th place as well). Unfortunately, that puts Landa into 3rd place, which we all know isn't gonna happen, so we'll have to swap him for someone else in the top 10. Random.org says that's number 6, Hindley.

Our final top 10 then is:

1. Evenepoel
2. Carthy
3. Hindley
4. Almeida
5. Landa
6. Bilbao
7. Soler
8. Bardet
9. Bennett
10. Nibali

You can go ahead and book it.

You should have told me before I spent half an hour writing my post!

 

[BlueRoads]

About Almeida: Although it's hard to find a scenario where he actually wins, I think he's now getting underestimated a bit. True, he never was among the absolut best climbers, but what I find amazing about him is how he just keeps on fighting and then comes back when he's already been long dropped. He knows how to limit his losses and overall seems pretty consistent.
This season he was third at UAE, behind Pogacar and A Yates, 6th at TA and 6th on Prato di Tivo, 7th at Catalunya. Look who he left behind him, those are some big names. If Masnada is in great form, there is no reason why Almeida shouldn't be. We just haven't seen him in a stage race since Catalunya, maybe that's also a reason why he's not the talk of the town?
About that scenario: What if the major favourites all have their problems, Evenepoel loses time early on and does actually work for him? (And Masnada as well.) And he has a team with Cavagna, Honoré and Knox dedicated to him?

 

[staubsauger]

No, Vlasov won on the Kitzbüheler Horn 2 days later and was actually rather bad on the Glockner (9th, 1:25 behind Ben Hermans), that's why I'm not fully conviced that climbs at altitude suit him.

Yes, I meant Kitzbüheler Horn but mixed up the 2 mountains.

Thanks for correcting me.

 

[spalco]

You can go ahead and book it.

That's the most scientifically convincing preview I've seen so far. Very impressive.

 

[Panda Claws]

Wanted to say Remco but it's gonna be Bernal. If Bernal is in good shape he is almost as much of a monster.

 

[Escarabajo]

Anyone know why Esteban Chaves isnt on the startlist or what his program looks like?

No.
According to another poster in here who follows Bike Exchange moves all the time, he was not expecting to ride any GT's this year. Telling a Colombian not to ride any GT's is as good as telling a sprinter not to sprint. Why pay him or have him on the pay roll! LOL.

Anyway, I think he will be taken at least to one of the remaining GT's. This one looked really good for him, plus he looked on form. Oh well, we'll see what happens.

 

[yaco]

No.
According to another poster in here who follows Bike Exchange moves all the time, he was not expecting to ride any GT's this year. Telling a Colombian not to ride any GT's is as good as telling a sprinter not to sprint. Why pay him or have him on the pay roll! LOL.

Anyway, I think he will be taken at least to one of the remaining GT's. This one looked really good for him, plus he looked on form. Oh well, we'll see what happens.

I actually stated that at the time Chaves wasn't pinned into a defined GT - Stated that he would probably ride a GT, but it wasn't nailed on - He will ride a GT in 2021 - Maybe TBE will surprise us and send him to the TDF, though you think the Vuelta is better option.

 

[Escarabajo]

I actually stated that at the time Chaves wasn't pinned into a defined GT - Stated that he would probably ride a GT, but it wasn't nailed on - He will ride a GT in 2021 - Maybe TBE will surprise us and send him to the TDF, though you think the Vuelta is better option.

OK. I miss understood then. I always thought that the decision by Bike Exchange to not have Chaves at least in one single GT was completely flawed. I would have never given him the contract if you were to, at least, give him the benefit of the doubt.

I think the Giro was the best option for him. But Vuelta is not bad either.

 

[Gigs_98]

Man I just really don't know.

My head say Yates. If he is in shape I don't see anyone beating him. The level he had for two and a half weeks in 2018 was so absolutely phenomenal, it can't be overstated. But then there is that last half week and what happened to him there. And there is the fact that 2018 was just such an outlier in his career. Last year I was thinking that people have to stop getting fooled by Yates' great one week stage race results and I guess here I am getting fooled again. But sticking to my principles I have to take someone else.

I guess Bernal is the 2nd most obvious pick, but then is he really? His entire preparation just reminds me way too much of last year. It's been almost two years since the last time Bernal has looked like the superstar we were promised when he was a junior and I'm questioning whether that will really come back all of a sudden.

Evenepoel is perhaps the next best guess, but am I really thinking a 21 year old, coming back from a horrific injury, who has never even raced a gt and hasn't raced at all since last summer is just gonna arrive from training and end up winning? Evenepoel has had by far the most ridiculous career of a junior that I ever witnessed, but how ridiculously good can one possibly be. If Contador in his prime had had this sort of preparation I would have seriously questioned his chances yet here I am having no idea whether Evenepoel will win or finish 50th. He is the biggest wildcard entering a gt that I can ever remember, so do I feel confident picking him? Definitely not.

But if not those three who else is even there? Landa? The guy who is always there or thereabouts but never quite good enough to win? He is probably the best understood quantity in this crazy pool of variables but do I think that quantity has gt winner level? Not really. It's way more likely that any of the guys with a higher ceiling gets his act together. Like what if Nibali seriously just suffered from the weird covid preparation last year? But then with his broken wrist...not expecting him to do that well either.

No, I think it will be like the last two years. Someone we kinda see coming but didn't consider to be an absolute favorite. I ended up picking Sivakov. I was thinking of who I feel about most like I felt about TGH last year and it's gotta be him. Riding for one of the strongest teams, being a guy who was once praised as a future super climber before losing a bit of his momentum compared to the likes of Bernal and Pogacar. Yup, my gutfeeling like this.

 

[titan31]

Havent seen him mentioned bar what I assume was a joke post but it Buchmann is off form, I wouldn't be surprised if Fabbro does quite well. He was very impressive in Tirreno and I could easily see him top 10 here if he doesn't go full domestique for Buchmann

 

[42x16ss]

There's a disturbing amount of faith in a 21yo rider coming back from serious injury, who has never even started a GT, riding for a team with another rider designated as leader.

 

[Bolder]

I chose Yates based on what I’ve seen this year, tbh I fully expect his form to evaporate at some point. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these guys win.

vlasov is my maglia Rosa dark horse. I think he’s got a higher ceiling thank some might think…

 

[Bolder]

There's a disturbing amount of faith in a 20yo rider coming back from serious injury who has never even started a GT.

Based on what said 20 year old has done, it would really surprise you if he won or podiumed?

 

[Escarabajo]

If Remco wins he should be doing Alpe D'Huez in 30 minutes in the years to come. Pogacar could only manage 3rd on his first outing in La Vuelta.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

More reasons to doubt each contender's chances than reasons to believe. When in doubt, I have to go with Ineos. Voted Bernal.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

It’s funny to have a GC field with so much nominal quality yet so many reasons to be sceptical about how good any of the contenders will be.

I voted Yates, because he’s the most entertaining GC rider in the sport and I want him to win. But... you know... he’s Simon Yates.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Based on what said 20 year old has done, it would really surprise you if he won or podiumed?

Yeah, exactly. A kid rides his first GT as his first race coming off an eight month injury lay off. It should be extremely obvious that he is not a contender to win GC. But, I’ve given up using my limited grasp of cycling to predict what any of the current batch of absolute freaks can do. I don’t think he will win, but I just can’t say that I’d be surprised because look at this kid’s career so far.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Honestly the way GTs have gone, we're probably going to have a surprise winner and I would pick Buchmann for that.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Honestly the way GTs have gone, we're probably going to have a surprise winner and I would pick Buchmann for that.

Surprise winner will be Sivakov. Surprise podium Masnada

 

[42x16ss]

Based on what said 20 year old has done, it would really surprise you if he won or podiumed?

Yes.

 

[42x16ss]

IF - and it's a massive if - Landa loses little to no time in the first week he should win this. He's been the best climber in the third week of a GT too many times to keep coming up empty handed.

IMHO Bahrain should be sending Haussler to the Giro purely to guide him through the first week and the sterrato stages like GreenEdge used to do with Hayman for Chaves.