Giro d'Italia 2021 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Pre-race poll.

[Pinot's goat]

About Almeida: Although it's hard to find a scenario where he actually wins, I think he's now getting underestimated a bit. True, he never was among the absolut best climbers, but what I find amazing about him is how he just keeps on fighting and then comes back when he's already been long dropped. He knows how to limit his losses and overall seems pretty consistent.
This season he was third at UAE, behind Pogacar and A Yates, 6th at TA and 6th on Prato di Tivo, 7th at Catalunya. Look who he left behind him, those are some big names. If Masnada is in great form, there is no reason why Almeida shouldn't be. We just haven't seen him in a stage race since Catalunya, maybe that's also a reason why he's not the talk of the town?
About that scenario: What if the major favourites all have their problems, Evenepoel loses time early on and does actually work for him? (And Masnada as well.) And he has a team with Cavagna, Honoré and Knox dedicated to him?

I think Almeida will start strong again and will probably have the Maglia Rosa for a number of days during the first half of the race but I would not be surprised if he drops out of the top 10 in the second half on some of those proper mountain stages.

 

[Savant12]

Surprise winner will be Sivakov. Surprise podium Masnada

I think Sivakov is a super rider but it will be a surprise if he doesn't crash in this race hurting his GC chances.

 

[The Hegelian]

Yates looked bloody good at the Alpes. I thought a bit thinner, and just super strong. Given Bernal's back trouble and Remco's lack of racing, I think he goes in as top fave. Buchmann and Landa to complete the podium.

And when Remco blows everyone out of the water and wins by 10 minutes, I will be happy to tip my hat and say 'well, there is the evidence.'

I think he can win btw. But not that likely.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yates looked bloody good at the Alpes. I thought a bit thinner, and just super strong. Given Bernal's back trouble and Remco's lack of racing, I think he goes in as top fave. Buchmann and Landa to complete the podium.

And when Remco blows everyone out of the water and wins by 10 minutes, I will be happy to tip my hat and say 'well, there is the evidence.'

I think he can win btw. But not that likely.

If he doesn't, it will be "proof" of something.
If he does win, it'll be "proof" of something else.

 

[red_flanders]

Logic says Yates or Bernal.
Heart says Remco.
Remco it is, I guess.

Same same same.

 

[dusty red roads]

I haven't a clue myself for all the reasons already posted, looking forward to seeing how it unfolds. Sentiment would love a lo Squalo win, but reality doesn't expect it. Maybe a nice stage win, perhaps the steratto stage? Also interested to see how Remco goes in his first GT. And also whether Simon will get his prep right this time! I don't mind who wins, I think it's going to be a lovely race with so many unknowns with the favorites. I'm sure DQS are going to make for a really fun race! Hope Sags can do some nice things to prove his worth for his next contract.

 

[SafeBet]

If Remco wins he should be doing Alpe D'Huez in 30 minutes in the years to come. Pogacar could only manage 3rd on his first outing in La Vuelta.

Hinault won his first GT.
Anquetil won his first GT.
Coppi won his first GT.

 

[Netserk]

If he doesn't, it will be "proof" of something.
If he does win, it'll be "proof" of something else.

It’s almost like opinions can be informed by new evidence.

 

[Pricey_sky]

It’s a really interesting GC field that will take the start.

If Bernal is over his back issues he should take this, but that’s a big ‘if’ at the moment.

Yates looked really good 2 weeks ago, but has he timed his peak correctly? In that form he’s going to be tough to beat uphill over 3 weeks.

If Remco wins this after such a long layoff he deserves some sort of god-like status. For me, a strong showing on some stages and a top 5 would be a great result.

If Carthy reproduces his Vuelta effort, he will again be on the podium.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

If Remco wins, either the organisers would have moved the finish line to whenever he was in the front of the race i.e. WVA and Pidcock ( then there will be another excuse for Logic and extinction to have another fight over who knows best ), there are only sprinters left in the race or he should be forever spoken about in the clinic. If he doesn't then there will be some excuse as to why he didn't and he would have won if, if, if and if.

On a serious note, I hope he goes well and puts on a good show. I go for a top ten for him if he finishes. I went for Yates to win, he's looking good again and hope he can stay the distance and measure his effort. I would also like to see Dan Martin to podium with Bernal getting over his back issues.

 

[Tour de Berghem]

I think this could be the right year for Mikel Landa.
I am surprised about the fews vote he recieved.

He did 4th in 2020 Tour de France
Here at the Giro there are really more mountains that suits to him
and there are nor Pogi or Primoz.

He can win.

 

[Cookster15]

Hard to call. I hope Bernal's back can last if so I think he can win even if not much high altitude. Otherwise Yates. I have no idea about Remco but just imagine what if?

 

[BlueRoads]

I think this could be the right year for Mikel Landa.
I am surprised about the fews vote he recieved.

He did 4th in 2020 Tour de France
Here at the Giro there are really more mountains that suits to him
and there are nor Pogi or Primoz.

He can win.

But "mountains that suit him, less time trialing where he loses time and no Pogi or Primoz" fits almost all competitors here.

On another note, people we haven't talked about at all are George Bennett, Matteo Jorgenson, Marc Soler, Harm Vanhoucke and Champoussin... I don't expect them to win, but they could all be in the mix for a very good result, most of all Soler. If we talk about Masnada, these certainly should be mentioned... and some others as well... with this lack of time trialing, the open field and so many leaders who could be out in the first week we could actually have a completely crazy race...
Okay no. Evenepoel will dominate this race from the beginning on and kill all suspense because he's never going to lose the 10 minutes advantage he gained on stage 4.
Okay, no. Ineos will control this and get one of their riders on top. Of course Bernal will have back problems, Martínez will crash on mini Strade Bianche, Sivakov will crash on the descent of stage 17, so Moscon will win this.

 

[Tour de Berghem]

But "mountains that suit him, less time trialing where he loses time and no Pogi or Primoz" fits almost all competitors here.

But suits especially for him ;-)))

 

[hayneplane]

I think this could be the right year for Mikel Landa.
I am surprised about the fews vote he recieved.

He did 4th in 2020 Tour de France
Here at the Giro there are really more mountains that suits to him
and there are nor Pogi or Primoz.

He can win.

Landani has the physical tools to win on a route like this but he has never fully managed to avoid a costly missed crosswind split or tangle in the bunch losing chunks of time before the GC has really started properly. This always forces long range raids expending more energy than others and subsequent inconsistent days.

4th is where I picture him once again.

 

[hayneplane]

But "mountains that suit him, less time trialing where he loses time and no Pogi or Primoz" fits almost all competitors here.

On another note, people we haven't talked about at all are George Bennett, Matteo Jorgenson, Marc Soler, Harm Vanhoucke and Champoussin... I don't expect them to win, but they could all be in the mix for a very good result, most of all Soler. If we talk about Masnada, these certainly should be mentioned... and some others as well... with this lack of time trialing, the open field and so many leaders who could be out in the first week we could actually have a completely crazy race...
Okay no. Evenepoel will dominate this race from the beginning on and kill all suspense because he's never going to lose the 10 minutes advantage he gained on stage 4.
Okay, no. Ineos will control this and get one of their riders on top. Of course Bernal will have back problems, Martínez will crash on mini Strade Bianche, Sivakov will crash on the descent of stage 17, so Moscon will win this.

All worth watching out for. George Bennett has been under the radar but if he peaks fully can get a top 5 finish though his weak team will be a hindrance if they ever have to defend his GC position. Jorgenson and Champoussin should feature in lots of breakaways in the mountains and are decent stage win prospects. Vanhoucke I could see being a strong KOM contender as I think he wont have it for GC but if he realises quick enough and recalibrates he can win that jersey.

Soler is arguably the most gifted rider you listed and this is his golden chance to show he is a true Grand Tour GC team leader but while he has a high level consistency and durability has been his Achilles heel.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It’s almost like opinions can be informed by new evidence.

Opinions?
It's called hypocrisy. The people to ridicule him in case he shows weakness, will by large be the same to call him a doper in case he doesn't. And there are plenty lined up just waiting to find out which ammo to use.

 

[HelloDolly]

There are so many possible winners this year and so many with question marks. I thought I try to seek the winner by process of elimination

I dont think Bernal is at his best because he is co leader . Ineos dont think it . As for Shivakov I dont think he will get through 3 weeks without crashing.

I know several great won their first GT but Evenepol has not raced in almost a year and had a serious injury . He maybe up there but I cannot see him wining


No One has mentioned George Bennett . Another man to crash alot . I can see him doing a top 5 but not win

Almedia is not a strong enough climber for me to win this Giro and it hasnt enough TT miles

Vlasov has not really been tested over 3 weeks and found to be the strongest

Dan Martin will climb well enough for top 5 but again cannot see him wining

Bardet I think will end up riding for Hindley as some point. Could be visa verse but probably not. Maybe the best is a podium for one of them

Martinez may endup the highest placed INEOS rider but will maybe have forfeited his GC chances by then

Masnada I think will also climb very well and could get a top 5. I cannot see the win though

I cant see Soler climbing well enough to win . A top 5 would be a good result for him



So who does that leave

Yates
Landa
Buchmann
Nibali
Carty


I think the winner will come from this list.
Simon Yates looks like the out and out favourite . But will he still be flying in the final week .
I would like it to be Landa as this is his best and maybe his last chance but you just know he will have a mishap
Carty will probably start slow but be flying in the final week but will it be in time to win
Buchmann is one of my favourites as he is such a top climber and probably has more conviction that Landa
I cannot exclude the Shark as he still knows how to win races and may pull something out of the bag....best probably is a top 5 if there is no one day of magic

So podium for me is

Yates
Buchmann
Carthy

 

[Lequack]

Ranking the Giro d'Italia favourites by how likely they are to poop by the roadside.

Ranking the Giro 2021 favourites by how likely they are to poop by the roadside. — Tom Owen Cycling Content

They call it 'doing a Dumoulin'.

www.tomowencc.com

 

[BlueRoads]

Ranking the Giro d'Italia favourites by how likely they are to poop by the roadside.

Ranking the Giro 2021 favourites by how likely they are to poop by the roadside. — Tom Owen Cycling Content

They call it 'doing a Dumoulin'.

www.tomowencc.com

Actually a great read, as stupid as it sounds, there are some great sentences and also some nice psychology...

The part about Evenepoel is my favourite, but the others are pretty good, too.

 

[Kainabru]

There are so many possible winners this year and so many with question marks. I thought I try to seek the winner by process of elimination

I dont think Bernal is at his best because he is co leader . Ineos dont think it . As for Shivakov I dont think he will get through 3 weeks without crashing.

I know several great won their first GT but Evenepol has not raced in almost a year and had a serious injury . He maybe up there but I cannot see him wining


No One has mentioned George Bennett . Another man to crash alot . I can see him doing a top 5 but not win

Almedia is not a strong enough climber for me to win this Giro and it hasnt enough TT miles

Vlasov has not really been tested over 3 weeks and found to be the strongest

Dan Martin will climb well enough for top 5 but again cannot see him wining

Bardet I think will end up riding for Hindley as some point. Could be visa verse but probably not. Maybe the best is a podium for one of them

Martinez may endup the highest placed INEOS rider but will maybe have forfeited his GC chances by then

Masnada I think will also climb very well and could get a top 5. I cannot see the win though

I cant see Soler climbing well enough to win . A top 5 would be a good result for him



So who does that leave

Yates
Landa
Buchmann
Nibali
Carty


I think the winner will come from this list.
Simon Yates looks like the out and out favourite . But will he still be flying in the final week .
I would like it to be Landa as this is his best and maybe his last chance but you just know he will have a mishap
Carty will probably start slow but be flying in the final week but will it be in time to win
Buchmann is one of my favourites as he is such a top climber and probably has more conviction that Landa
I cannot exclude the Shark as he still knows how to win races and may pull something out of the bag....best probably is a top 5 if there is no one day of magic

So podium for me is

Yates
Buchmann
Carthy

Really good analysis, probably my favourite so far. Although I would swap Buchmann with Landa and also added Vlasov to the 'final selection' but kept him out of podium. Anyway great point of reference.

 

[Netserk]

Opinions?
It's called hypocrisy. The people to ridicule him in case he shows weakness, will by large be the same to call him a doper in case he doesn't. And there are plenty lined up just waiting to find out which ammo to use.

So how he does will not inform anyone the least bit about his abilities?

PS: This is not the clinic, so take your clinic-tears to the clinic.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So how he does will not inform anyone the least bit about his abilities?

PS: This is not the clinic, so take your clinic-tears to the clinic.

You sometimes seem like an intelligent guy. Surely it was obvious that i was talking about. It's not about clinic, it's about people looking for any stick to beat with.

 

[Kovo]

Logic says Yates or Bernal.
Heart says Roglič or Pogačar.

 

[Ktarie]

I already find it difficult to assess favorites like Carthy, Buchmann, Landa and Vlasov according to strength and their possible role in this Giro, regardless of all the unexpected events that can occur on a Grand Tour. Buchmann of the 2019 Tour and the 2020 Dauphine would definitely be a hot potato in the mountains. Landa was looking strong, Carthy seems to be on a decent way like Buchmann and Vlasov was third in TotA and second in Paris-Nice .

And of course, Bernal and Yates can be assessed as very strong in general based on their previous results .
Remco - from whom I expect something surprising - and Almeida should never be forgotten.
And let's see if Hindley can confirm anything from what he has shown last year.
That are already the names of nine riders.

Then there might be a number of riders like Soler, Bilbao, Bennett, Sivakov, Bardet, Nibali or Masnada who in the third week could play the role of a Gaudu at the Vuelta '20 and fight for a place in the top 10 in escape groups. Who knows.

A lot seems to be possible at the Giro 2021. I'm happy about this good startlist and that almost every team provides a captain for the classement or shows at least some ambitions in the mountains (even Martin, Hirt, Pozzovivo, Reichenbach and Ciccone are there).