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Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 4: Avola – Etna 170 km (Tuesday, May 10th)

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The first hour should be great, good prospects for the break to go to the line and lots of guys with a shot at a few days in pink. VDP having a go at getting up the road to keep the jersey seems a good bet, not convinced it's doable with guys in the break likely to be close on GC still but I'm sure he'll give us some action.
 
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GC before the stage

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Will we see 2018 or 2020 Yates?
And even more interesting. Will the future winner of the race lose nearly two minutes on Etna again. Special circumstances but all of the top guys on Etna in 2020 faded in the third week.
 
Likely the break takes this. The flat(ish) start makes it hard to predict who will be in the break but I think Bouwman is a really good bet. He has said that he will have the freedom to go for stage wins and his time trial suggested he might be at the high level he was in the Giro last year. He can climb (particularly on moderate gradients) and had a good finishing kick if he can't go to the line alone.

Everyone seems to be on Kamna but he is way too short in the betting. Even if he makes the break then there's a decent chance there will be climbers as strong as him and he does not have much of a sprint. He is better suited on stages that require tactical nous and a bit of descending. This stage shapes as more of a grind.
 
Breaks caught early, lots of five-second accelerations by the so-called favorites, then someone more random go berserk and Carapaz to catch him at the last hundred meters just because anyone else is afraid to win.