Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Second rest day poll.

Who will win the 2022 Giro d'Italia?


  • Total voters
    135
  • Poll closed .
Today's race showed that the contenders are pretty evenly matched and it's hard to predict who will win. The poll's results confirm it. I'm still predicting Billy though - he has the strongest team and I think he'll reach his best form in the 3rd week. The GC fight should be very interesting anyway.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
None of Carapaz' best days in GTs were at particularly high altitude.
I put Lago Serrú and the stage to Courmayeur (Colle San Marco) as his best performances in GTs so far and they were both around 2000m (in Lago Serrú case, a bit higher than that).

I don't rate his 2020 Vuelta shape as being that higher as in that Giro but the stage where he put more time to Roglic was one where they finished near 2000m (Covatilla).

Last year at the Tour his best displays (where he lost less time to Pogacar) were also at stages finishing well up 2000m (Porter) or passing a 2000m peak before (Tourmalet), but I don't think is fair to include that ones to comparison as the Tour was already won by Tadej then and I don't think we saw the best from him too.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Should have never changed my pick from Almeida to Yates after the first rest day. Looks like this might end up being a war of attrition, I wouldn’t be surprised if whoever wins doesn’t get any stage wins.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
I put Lago Serrú and the stage to Courmayeur (Colle San Marco) as his best performances in GTs so far and they were both around 2000m (in Lago Serrú case, a bit higher than that).

I don't rate his 2020 Vuelta shape as being that higher as in that Giro but the stage where he put more time to Roglic was one where they finished near 2000m (Covatilla).

Last year at the Tour his best displays (where he lost less time to Pogacar) were also at stages finishing well up 2000m (Porter) or passing a 2000m peak before (Tourmalet), but I don't think is fair to include that ones to comparison as the Tour was already won by Tadej then and I don't think we saw the best from him too.
Was just better in the Pyrenees than in the Alps. He was nothing special on Tignes and arguably worse than on Romme/Colombiere. They were down to 3 dudes on Portet before they even hit 1500m that day. Similar thing to Lago Serru. Race was in shatters before they even hit the altitude. 2019 Giro he was just the best climber overall.

My read on Carapaz is that he's probably best on the more attritionous mountain stages and his best climbs are probably 6-8%. I don't think he excels at the steep stuff.
 
Looking at the stage profiles, I would say there's a chance only stages 19 and 20 will be truly selective among the contenders, so Almeida has the possibility to win it thanks to stage 21. If stage 21 was a sprint stage, I would have said Carapaz, but I must vote for Almeida.

I would bet that stages 15 and 17 will be basically unselective. I am unsure about stage 16. An adventurous contender would take time but I feel like I've seen too many stages like it where nothing really happens.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Changed my vote from Carapaz to Almeida. He is warming up his Diesel and the others missed their opportunity to hit him harder on Etna or some of the medium mountain stages where he has shown weakness in the past. He will be very strong in the third week
 
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