I really hope for Bardet, he always was/still is an exciting rider, and I wish him a redemption after many weak years. To win he probably should have taken time today, but I'm still rooting.
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In the Alpes he also wasted some energy by trying to go with Pogacar on Romme/Colombiere after that rather useless attack one day earlier. He was probably the 2nd strongest gc rider at that point, even if his results don't really show it.
Voted for Landa because landismo.
The last time he won a Giro stage I took a picture with him of the start of that stage (the 2017 Piancavallo stage), so I probably should get my ass to Belluno on the penultimate stage.
The last time he won a Giro stage I took a picture with him of the start of that stage (the 2017 Piancavallo stage), so I probably should get my ass to Belluno on the penultimate stage.
Yeah that's a bit of surprise to me.
I guess the 2020 Giro fluke theory is still prevalent.
I thought on the climb yesterday Bardet looked the strongest and after the stage he was admonishing himself for not wining..he knew he could have
Landa after crashing twice also looked strong on the climb
I cant say Carapaz was all that dominant even after Porte shreded the field for him
Both Almedia and Hindley though they rode well were on the limit on the climbs so if the front 3 had worked together they could have put time into them
For me its still hard to see past Carapaz given his team
Bardet and Landa will have to attack and make it stick ( Bardet may though have come to the race in top form)
Almeida and Hindley need to be dropped next weekend or the pendulum could swing to them in the final week
Great that there are 5 possible contenders at this stage but the winner needs to not ride conservatively ..they have to take a risk
Landa after crashing twice also looked strong on the climb
I cant say Carapaz was all that dominant even after Porte shreded the field for him
Both Almedia and Hindley though they rode well were on the limit on the climbs so if the front 3 had worked together they could have put time into them
For me its still hard to see past Carapaz given his team
Bardet and Landa will have to attack and make it stick ( Bardet may though have come to the race in top form)
Almeida and Hindley need to be dropped next weekend or the pendulum could swing to them in the final week
Great that there are 5 possible contenders at this stage but the winner needs to not ride conservatively ..they have to take a risk
What a nicely set up race we have. Sometimes not having a monster at the top just makes things a bit more compelling.
For me it's probably still Carapaz because we know he just keeps going until people crack most of the time and he has the team support to be relevant throughout.
Almeida can definitely win, but I suspect that if he's too close there will be some attacking with support up the road from stronger teams to ditch him a climb before the finish and just leave him having to do too much solo.
I'm really excited about Bardet, it's the best he's climbed in ages and he has both the skills and the nerves to take some risks on descents if he wants.
There's a few teams with multiple cards to play too and some riders a way down you don't want to risk letting back in.
I'm also looking forward to seeing what happens on the G Martin rollercoaster. An incredibly good ride yesterday but one suspects he's not just going to chill in the bunch this week either.
For me it's probably still Carapaz because we know he just keeps going until people crack most of the time and he has the team support to be relevant throughout.
Almeida can definitely win, but I suspect that if he's too close there will be some attacking with support up the road from stronger teams to ditch him a climb before the finish and just leave him having to do too much solo.
I'm really excited about Bardet, it's the best he's climbed in ages and he has both the skills and the nerves to take some risks on descents if he wants.
There's a few teams with multiple cards to play too and some riders a way down you don't want to risk letting back in.
I'm also looking forward to seeing what happens on the G Martin rollercoaster. An incredibly good ride yesterday but one suspects he's not just going to chill in the bunch this week either.
The other great thing is that you can have a group of big favourites watching each other while an outsider makes a big move, as in a sense happened with Carapaz himself in 2019. Arensman or Buchmann might fit the bill if either of their teammates falls away, those longish false flats over the top on t15 & 17 look good for that sort of thing; could even be López if there's too much looking around in Aosta.
Most likely you'd put the €€€ on Carapaz. But is there enough altitude in the next 2 weeks, and will it be normal for Ineos to only have one guy with him that early on critical climbs?
Juao Almida has to be the favourite at this stage. As usual I hope Bardet or Landa can pull off the victory
Maybe Hindley, why not? I understand voting for Carapaz instead, but none of the others seem massively more likely than Hindley imo.
With Kelderman as domestique and Buchmann as strong second option, Bora has a really strong mountain team.
If Hindley gets in his 2020 3rd week shape, he should at least make the podium.
If Hindley gets in his 2020 3rd week shape, he should at least make the podium.
Carapaz
Almeida
Hindley
Landa
Bardet
Carapaz is beatable if anyone's good enough, but is the least likely to collapse. I don't think we've seen the best of Almeida and Hindley (I'm less sure in his case) yet, whereas Landa and Bardet are known quantities at this point. I wouldn't rule out Buchmann just yet either.
Almeida
Hindley
Landa
Bardet
Carapaz is beatable if anyone's good enough, but is the least likely to collapse. I don't think we've seen the best of Almeida and Hindley (I'm less sure in his case) yet, whereas Landa and Bardet are known quantities at this point. I wouldn't rule out Buchmann just yet either.
I think Almida is the most dangerous he will get stronger through the race. And he can do a stronger time trial than the others. Landa needs to find time somewhere
This is the most open GT we've had for some time - the favourites are so evenly matched that I'm not sure trying to simply outclimb opponents with 3km to go will work, the riders need to be creative with their tactics and take risks. Looking forward to it
This Giro is still wide open. Nobody looks vastly dominant over the others.
This is so wide open. Nobody is looking particularly strong and there are basically 5 guys left in the running who we only really favor over each other based on past results. I still think Carapaz is the most likely pick just because he feels least likely to implode. I think I'd rank the chances of the 5 favorites like this:
- Carapaz (the basic pick)
- Almeida (highest ceiling)
- Landa (somewhere in between)
- Hindley (don't trust the 2020 Giro)
- Bardet (no good gt since 2017)
Yup, agree with you. With perspective I would also say that it would be normal at this point to see Carapaz and Almeida winning - the first because he absolutely can and already did it, the second because he already did a lot for a 23 year old, and it’s normal for young riders to rise to another level. The other 3 can do it, and absolutely have the quality for it, but for different reasons I would be surprised to see them winning a GT in 2022. I would still not exclude other guys like Pello and Buchmann, but they both have teammates further ahead in the GC.
Seems arbitrary. Stage 16 and 17 is at least as hard as the stages you mentioned. I cannot imagine any world where your read on those stages are even close to being correct.
I just dont know how anyone could come up with such a weird analysis of the race.
I cast my vote for Bardet. He looked the best on Sunday's final climb, recently recaptured winning ways, and generally seems reinvigorated by his training under the DSM system. Besides, I have always liked the guy as a rider.
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