I really hope for Bardet, he always was/still is an exciting rider, and I wish him a redemption after many weak years. To win he probably should have taken time today, but I'm still rooting.
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In the Alpes he also wasted some energy by trying to go with Pogacar on Romme/Colombiere after that rather useless attack one day earlier. He was probably the 2nd strongest gc rider at that point, even if his results don't really show it.Was just better in the Pyrenees than in the Alps. He was nothing special on Tignes and arguably worse than on Romme/Colombiere. They were down to 3 dudes on Portet before they even hit 1500m that day. Similar thing to Lago Serru. Race was in shatters before they even hit the altitude. 2019 Giro he was just the best climber overall.
My read on Carapaz is that he's probably best on the more attritionous mountain stages and his best climbs are probably 6-8%. I don't think he excels at the steep stuff.
The other great thing is that you can have a group of big favourites watching each other while an outsider makes a big move, as in a sense happened with Carapaz himself in 2019. Arensman or Buchmann might fit the bill if either of their teammates falls away, those longish false flats over the top on t15 & 17 look good for that sort of thing; could even be López if there's too much looking around in Aosta.Great that there are 5 possible contenders at this stage but the winner needs to not ride conservatively ..they have to take a risk
I think Almida is the most dangerous he will get stronger through the race. And he can do a stronger time trial than the others. Landa needs to find time somewhereCarapaz
Carapaz is beatable if anyone's good enough, but is the least likely to collapse. I don't think we've seen the best of Almeida and Hindley (I'm less sure in his case) yet, whereas Landa and Bardet are known quantities at this point. I wouldn't rule out Buchmann just yet either.
This is so wide open. Nobody is looking particularly strong and there are basically 5 guys left in the running who we only really favor over each other based on past results. I still think Carapaz is the most likely pick just because he feels least likely to implode. I think I'd rank the chances of the 5 favorites like this:
- Carapaz (the basic pick)
- Almeida (highest ceiling)
- Landa (somewhere in between)
- Hindley (don't trust the 2020 Giro)
- Bardet (no good gt since 2017)
Seems arbitrary. Stage 16 and 17 is at least as hard as the stages you mentioned. I cannot imagine any world where your read on those stages are even close to being correct.Looking at the stage profiles, I would say there's a chance only stages 19 and 20 will be truly selective among the contenders, so Almeida has the possibility to win it thanks to stage 21. If stage 21 was a sprint stage, I would have said Carapaz, but I must vote for Almeida.
I would bet that stages 15 and 17 will be basically unselective. I am unsure about stage 16. An adventurous contender would take time but I feel like I've seen too many stages like it where nothing really happens.
I cast my vote for Bardet. He looked the best on Sunday's final climb, recently recaptured winning ways, and generally seems reinvigorated by his training under the DSM system. Besides, I have always liked the guy as a rider.I really hope for Bardet, he always was/still is an exciting rider, and I wish him a redemption after many weak years. To win he probably should have taken time today, but I'm still rooting.