Vuelta a España 2022 Vuelta a España Second Rest Day Poll

[Sciatic]

Should be Remco.
However, can anyone with bigger history knowledge (I'm looking mostly at you, @Libertine Seguros) remind me the last time when a pre-race favorite (or second top at least) was leading a GT with 2 minutes AFTER the first 3 MTF's and a TT without winning the race? Under normal circumstances, I mean.

That might be skewed by the fact that sometimes there weren’t 3 MTFs prior to the TT.

 

[Netserk]

Nibali led by 50'' before losing the race to Horner. Purito led by 28'' at the most after the ITT (53'' before) in 2012.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

At this point the two most realistic scenarios are

1. Remco keeps going strong and wins the race
2. Remco weakens at some point while Primoz gets better and wins the race

There is also Mas winning scenario but he needs both Remco and Primoz to be subpar in the second part of the race.