Vuelta a España 2022 Vuelta a España stage 4(Vitoria-Gastiez-Lagaurdia),152.5 km, Hilly

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

The first stage in Spain offers the first actual stage of real interest to the viewing eye, with a hilly stage in the Basque Country to await the riders.

The first 50 or so kilometers are mainly flat, which brings us to the first climb of the Puerto de Opakua, our first category 2 climb of the race.

The next 70 or so kilometers are rolling, with some rises, including after the intermediate sprint in Lagrán. With around 20 k’s to go, we reach the climb of the Puerto de Herrera, a cat 3 climb with a bonus on top to inspire GC attacks I suppose, with the top crested with 14.5 k’s to go to the finish line uphill in Laguardia.

Final 5km’s profile

 

[Lequack]

Froome should win this one.

 

[ontheroad]

Roglic v Evenepoel showdown to lay down a marker and fight for the bonus seconds.

 

[movingtarget]

Froome should win this one.

First to the feed zone maybe........but some intermediate stages can be surprisingly good...........over to you Mr Froome..........

 

[ice&fire]

First health test for Roglic and Alaphilippe. If they're healthy...
Roglic will start chasing time bonuses to grow his gap to Remco.
Alaphilippe will be called selfish for chasing the stage win and not helping Remco.
Grumpy Patrick will complain about something

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Roglic vs. Alaphilippe by the looks of it. Perhaps the new, punchy version of Evenepoel can compete for the win as well. Who else could be in the mix? Higuita, Almeida, Valverde, Ayuso? I reckon it's too much for Hayter?

 

[KZD]

Roglic vs. Alaphilippe by the looks of it. Perhaps the new, punchy version of Evenepoel can compete for the win as well. Who else could be in the mix? Higuita, Almeida, Valverde, Ayuso? I reckon it's too much for Hayter?

Unless they go very hard in the hardest part I think Hayter should be in the mix. Higuita and Ayuso have a good chance indeed, but I have doubts about Alaphilippe and Valverde's current shape

 

[Berflamand]

These scenarios look plausible to me:

• Random breakaway win
• Roglstomp
• Remco show
• Alaphillippe rebirth
• Hayter sprint

I hope for the Remco show but fear the random breakaway win.

 

[ontheroad]

Unless they go very hard in the hardest part I think Hayter should be in the mix. Higuita and Ayuso have a good chance indeed, but I have doubts about Alaphilippe and Valverde's current shape

I think Valverdes birth certificate might have something to do with that.

 

[KZD]

I think Valverdes birth certificate might have something to do with that.

Or the fact that he was runover by a maniac around two months ago.

 

[red_flanders]

The first stage in Spain offers the first actual stage of real interest to the viewing eye, with a hilly stage in the Basque Country to await the riders.

Thanks for the thread! I hear what you're saying, but I'd argue the TTT was quite interesting for the viewer. At least this viewer! But yeah, 2 and 3 were snore-fests and always were going to be.

I don't know much about the final climb. Enough to create gaps? I mean, I'm sure there will be a sprint to the line from a smaller group, and we'll get some minor gaps there. Bonus seconds and a few more maybe? Mainly curious how QS will approach this one, it looks like much more an Alaphillipe climb than an Evenepoel climb. Assume since the stated goal is stage wins, Ala goes for it and RE defends as best he can. Seems some chance he tries to go for it earlier, but I hope not, that doesn't seem like a good call this early in the race, But the kid is clearly chomping at the bit and strong as heck. Could be really interesting, could be pretty predictable. No idea.

 

[ontheroad]

Thanks for the thread! I hear what you're saying, but I'd argue the TTT was quite interesting for the viewer. At least this viewer! But yeah, 2 and 3 were snore-fests and always were going to be.

I don't know much about the final climb. Enough to create gaps? I mean, I'm sure there will be a sprint to the line from a smaller group, and we'll get some minor gaps there. Bonus seconds and a few more maybe? Mainly curious how QS will approach this one, it looks like much more an Alaphillipe climb than an Evenepoel climb. Assume since the stated goal is stage wins, Ala goes for it and RE defends as best he can. Seems some chance he tries to go for it earlier, but I hope not, that doesn't seem like a good call this early in the race, But the kid is clearly chomping at the bit and strong as heck. Could be really interesting, could be pretty predictable. No idea.

Alaphilippe didn't look to be in the best of form at Tour de L'Ain although this finish should suit him if he can get back close to his best. What you say makes sense though since there will not be much to be gained in the GC battle tomorrow from looking at the profile other than potential time bonuses. I like the unpredictability that the first real test of this race brings since there are so many unknowns.

 

[Red Rick]

I thought break earlier because JV and QS shouldnt chase but there are still plenty of teams that should

 

[wheresmybrakes]

I don't think Roglic will try anything tomorrow. I think he will grow into the race and pick certain raids later in the race. I f he isn't 100% just yet, he just needs to stay with any other GC rider attacks. Gonna go for a silly one and go for Pinot.

 

[red_flanders]

I do think there could be some very interesting attacks on Stage 5. (edited)

 

[Sciatic]

I do think there could be some very interesting attacks on Stage 5 tomorrow.

Stage 4?

 

[aku994]

I think Roglič will only follow GC attacks for now and sprint to the line for bonus seconds if the opportunity presents itself. He probably saw that Pogačar made the mistake of too any attacks form the start in TdF and learned from it.
But then again I could be wrong..

 

[red_flanders]

Stage 4?

Yeah sorry, Stage 5 on Wednesday. Thx.

 

[Sciatic]

Yeah sorry, Stage 5 on Wednesday. Thx.

You’re right to be thinking ahead though, since Stage 5 should be more exciting

 

[Bonimenier]

Kudus winning from the break

 

[Wvv]

Higuita should have a good chance here.

For me, Remco just needs to finish 'with the guys'.

 

[Red Rick]

 

[tobydawq]

Will anybody pull the peloton?

And why are we suddenly expecting Remco to be able to outperform Alaphilippe on such a finish? That seems rather fanciful.

 

[Riek s]

Remco won't do anything on this climb.

Its less than a km, not extremely steep... A good alaphilippe, higuita, valv piti, roglic... might have a shot... don't expect any differences beside boni seconds.
But i expect a breakaway to make it.

Don't think there are many teams that will work to bet on this finish for the win.

 

[red_flanders]

Will anybody pull the peloton?

And why are we suddenly expecting Remco to be able to outperform Alaphilippe on such a finish? That seems rather fanciful.

?? Seems most people are talking about Ala for this one, with some doubts about his form recently. Don't think "we" are "suddenly expecting Remco" over Ala, are they? Maybe I'm missing it...